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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#471

Post by xanthor »

raincole wrote: post #427
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> The looming US debt is also a great question - a lot of economists have argued that since most US debt is good. It's mostly in forms of treasuries purchased in USD that pay in USD - this means the indebtedness creates a huge amount of dollars abroad that foreigners have to then spend on US services, driving demand. You got it wrong (I'm sure most economists don't get it wrong and you just misread/misquote). USD is…

The US has pointed and fired guns at other countries for moving away from US treasuries, but alternative justifications are produced to reassure our domestic population that it’s really because the foreign leader is a very bad guy.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#472

Post by cookiengineer »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

I wanted to add that since the last threat of Trump in Davos where he didn't even know the difference between Iceland and Greenland and accidentally threatened another sovereign country, almost all social insurances of EU countries have started to liquidate/sell their US bonds and assets.

If that is not a red sign to BlackRock, then I don't know...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#473

Post by tim333 »

dmix wrote: post #286
tim333 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were worries that they'd issued a lot of debt to build real estate that wasn't needed resulting in ghost towns and people thought prices would fall and the banks lending would collapse but they seem to have managed ok. The Chinese actually seem quite smart at managing their system.

They managed okay up until now because the Chinese gov takes a ton of revenue directly from their industry. They have very low income taxes on the public and instead make a lot of money from their huge state companies and investments in their manufacturing, industrial, and tech businesses which are still booming. That helps offset the losses from real estate, which they also make money off from land sales. They act m…

It seems to me there are two parts to the economy - physical stuff like like buildings, trains, factories, people working etc which you can see if you look around, and the financial side like bank balances, debt which are basically numbers in databases which you can only see on screens and paper.

If the financial side goes wrong the government can kind of fix it overnight but printing/lending money, nationalizing bust banks and so on. But the physical takes a long time - you can't suddenly have a lot of high speed rail or trained engineers overnight - it takes decades.

The Chinese seem to plan ahead on the physical stuff like houses factories universities and don't worry too much about the financial.

The west seems more to worry about regulating the financial side and leave what to build to the market but that seems to have some aspects that can be inefficient.

Not that it's just east - west. The US has built loads of infrastructure at times and socialists have had many screw ups. Still there may be something to be said for having some sort of long term plan on the physical side.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#474

Post by BLKNSLVR »

hypeatei wrote: post #467

> It feels as though all we need is a spark. And yet, many sparks seem to have come and gone. Big market moves, in stocks or yields, that have recovered Yes, in a five year span we've had three 20% drawdowns in the stock market that have all recovered which is unprecedented. IMO, anyone who thinks we're going to crash and have a lost decade is not looking at the bigger picture. The Federal Reserve exists to allow the…

Quoting someone else:

"Bears sound smart, Bulls make money"

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#475

Post by ezconnect »

CraigJPerry wrote: post #438
BobbyJo wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's mostly in forms of treasuries purchased in USD that pay in USD - this means the indebtedness creates a huge amount of dollars abroad that foreigners have to then spend on US services, driving demand. Strangely enough, this is exactly the opposite of how it works. The dollars abroad tend to stay abroad, as either a more stable alternative to local currencies, or a reserve currency. Likewise, treasuries held abr…

I, a foreign entity, have sold something to an american and now have 10 dollars and zero treasuries. I purchase a treasury. I have zero product, zero dollars and one treasury. At some point in future i have zero product, maybe 12 dollars and zero treasuries. Presumably i now either repeat the cycle or use my winnings to spend on us output. GP’s version checks out, your assertion about dollars staying abroad doesnt tr…

Because the world trades using US dollars. Country A needs to buy something from Country B. Country A needs to buy/get dollars to buy stuff from Country B. Country B will not accept anything but dollars or gold for its products because it also needs to buy other stuff like oil in dollars from other countries.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#476

Post by woooooo »

danaris wrote: post #412
t-3 wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's because Obama disillusioned the left, and Biden just hammered it home. Those who thought the Democrats could actually represent the "big tent" have all been disappointed over and over again by sheepdogging and ignoring popular issues with bipartisan support in favor of corporate interests with only an occasional performative nod towards liberal ideals. That's why the right showed up to vote and the left stay…

Biden was by far the most effective and most progressive Democratic president of the post-WWII era. What "hammered home" the disillusionment was not Biden's actions *, but rather the media narrative built around him, particularly by the newspaper most identified with the Democratic Party: the New York Times. They were angry that he didn't give them deference early on, and that, combined with the desire of their wealt…

No amount of writing could ever outweigh that debate performance he had. He should have declined to run and let a primary winner enter the race with some momentum.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#478

Post by ezconnect »

somenameforme wrote: post #329
SllX wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and in 1992 it was 46%, and in 2000 it was 71% and in 2013 it was 61%. USD foreign exchange reserves have definitely declined from their peak, but by “declined” we’re talking about going from “overwhelmingly dominant” to “merely dominant” to potentially in a few years “equal to every other foreign currency reserve in the world combined”, and maybe USD foreign exchange reserves will decline even further beyond t…

There's some major historical events here. It's not just random movement. Here is a sort of visualization of key points and the USD share of global reserves with the events attached. The number in percent is the USD share of global reserves. 1970 (85%) - Up until 1971 [1] the USD was backed by gold by the Bretton Woods system. Other countries could trade USD in for gold at a fixed rate and in exchange would peg their…

I only check the US stock markets to see the health of the US Dollar. Every time it reaches new high it means dollar devalues a tiny bit more than the last stock market peak.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#479

Post by Noaidi »

repelsteeltje wrote: post #391
Noaidi wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where was the news when silver was going up and having the best days it’s had since 1981? On January 26, 2026, silver experienced its largest one-day jump in 45 years, with front-month futures soaring by 14%. Spot silver prices surged to over $109 per ounce that day, driven by heightened safe-haven demand and industrial usage. The rally continued to push silver prices toward $120 by January 29, 2026. And regardless,…

Anyway, for now I'm primarily concerned with paying a debt for what I need (housing). While worrying somewhat about pension, I'm kind of happy I'm not too deep into where to put excess capital. First World problems. IMO Paying your debt always seems prudent - whether we'll see huge inflation or even deflation - when you can live in the thing you're paying for.

You should be like me! Homeless, living out of a minivan! I’m ready for anything. :)

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#480

Post by plasmatix »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #419
gpt5 wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true - all the global multinationals that essentially make the US stock market earn a good portion of their revenue in foreign currency, so their revenue and profits will increase. In addition, they are all cheaper when priced in USD, so their stock will go up regardless. This is just counting short term effect of currency devaluation. Long term there are also effects around trade balance and jobs.

Declining USD makes US exports more competitive.

One could argue that USD is a US export.
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