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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#411

Post by burnt-resistor »

zeckalpha wrote: post #260

A declining dollar will look like a good economy for those who think the economy is the stock market.

Also, increasing billionaire wealth and burgeoning (but somewhat circular) market capitalizations of companies will seem like a good economy while real income and wealth for the bottom half of Americans keeps falling. The mainstream business media is a gaslight factory completely ignoring the ever-widening K-shaped economic reality that there's a very good economy for the highest income people and a rapidly declining/terrible economy for everyone else.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#412

Post by danaris »

t-3 wrote: post #348
JackFr wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

No, it's because Obama disillusioned the left, and Biden just hammered it home. Those who thought the Democrats could actually represent the "big tent" have all been disappointed over and over again by sheepdogging and ignoring popular issues with bipartisan support in favor of corporate interests with only an occasional performative nod towards liberal ideals. That's why the right showed up to vote and the left stay…

Biden was by far the most effective and most progressive Democratic president of the post-WWII era.

What "hammered home" the disillusionment was not Biden's actions*, but rather the media narrative built around him, particularly by the newspaper most identified with the Democratic Party: the New York Times. They were angry that he didn't give them deference early on, and that, combined with the desire of their wealthy Republican owner to push his politics, led to the constant drumbeat of stories about Biden's supposed "cognitive decline", when he's still much sharper than Trump.

ETA: ...not to mention totally ignoring all his very real accomplishments, like forgiving the student debt of millions of people (yes, despite not getting as many as he wanted, he really did achieve that) and the infrastructure bill.

* His inaction, particularly on prosecuting Trump, was a separate matter.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#413

Post by [deleted] »

oceanplexian wrote: post #403
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon Unfortunately, the data doesn't back this up. The US economy is actually one of the least trade-dependent nations in the world. 27% of GDP is trade-oriented (The value of imports and exports as a function of GDP), while the global average is 63%. The US is so developed, that even if the country was completely cut off from the world and operated as an…

[deleted]

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#414

Post by oceanplexian »

mndgs wrote: post #410
oceanplexian wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon Unfortunately, the data doesn't back this up. The US economy is actually one of the least trade-dependent nations in the world. 27% of GDP is trade-oriented (The value of imports and exports as a function of GDP), while the global average is 63%. The US is so developed, that even if the country was completely cut off from the world and operated as an…

Nonsense. If 27% of GDP is suddenly gone, how US economy could be the largest? (rest of the world can substitute US trade between itself)

The US Economy is 53% larger than the next largest, China, in terms of real GDP (Not fake PPP nonsense). 28T vs 18T.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#415

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

bayarearefugee wrote: post #158
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> 'this time it's different' I remember reading this a lot in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 That said, overall I sort of agree with your assessment except for having any optimism that the US changes course. The current looming problems with the US economy are almost entirely unforced errors of the Trump administration (they could have done basically nothing and taken credit for the Biden soft landing and economic growth) b…

>Trump has no ability to admit mistakes even to himself

Whatever happened to 'TACO'

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#416

Post by watwut »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #328
actionfromafar wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't all that be solved by posting ICE guards around all polling stations?

There's no law of nature that proves democracy can't be overthrown, but ICE is currently struggling against popular resistance to merely enforce immigration law in a single medium-sized city. Right now there's not much indication they have either the desire or operational capacity to pull off nationwide voter suppression. (And a number of special elections over the past year have defeated regime-backed candidates wit…

If they tried to merely immigration law, they would had no issue.

They were successful at creating fear and making conflict avoidant people stay home. Despite large amount of protesters, that is real effect.

And it would create real vote suppression. You would had people not voting out of fear. And the opposing side having less votes (even if they win, they win less)

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#417

Post by Lutger »

mmooss wrote: post #367
panarky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

> Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly just figments of collective belief. > But when we devolve from the rules-based order to the old order of pure power and might-makes-right, kings and dictators, when there's no more collective belief that the rules apply to the rich and powerful, then the tower of abstractions collapses, a…

The source of truth in fascism is not popular support or inquiry, thus they always need to channel some privileged connection to reality, or claim to voice the true will of the people and authentically represents the pure will of the nation.

Its a farce, of course, but one that can sometimes muster enough support to keep the signs in the shop with just a bit of intimidation and violence to back it up.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#418

Post by danaris »

PlanksVariable wrote: post #383
ulfw wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But cares about something that has zero effect on them? Trans? How many of them know a single trans person? Like somehow that's a huge thing for Trump voters but a crashing economy is not?

Crashing the economy? In the past year the S&P 500 rose 14%, unemployment is at 4.4%, and inflation is around 2.7%. There are many things to criticize Trump for but the economy has not actually crashed.

Trump ran on an explicit promise to bring down grocery prices on day 1.

Grocery prices have continued to climb.

Absolutely nothing he has done could remotely be said to be aimed at bringing them down.

He has also instituted massive attacks on the power of labor, and on the offices that report on things like the unemployment rate.

"The economy" is not just the stock market; unemployment numbers literally cannot be trusted coming from Trump's BLS; and an inflation of 2.7% is, in fact, fairly high (it's 35% higher than the "target" rate of 2%).

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#419

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

gpt5 wrote: post #371
zeckalpha wrote: post #260

A declining dollar will look like a good economy for those who think the economy is the stock market.

This is true - all the global multinationals that essentially make the US stock market earn a good portion of their revenue in foreign currency, so their revenue and profits will increase. In addition, they are all cheaper when priced in USD, so their stock will go up regardless. This is just counting short term effect of currency devaluation. Long term there are also effects around trade balance and jobs.

Declining USD makes US exports more competitive.
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