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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#241

Post by johnnyanmac »

pembrook wrote: post #237
johnnyanmac wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>When the bitter, frustrated pessimists on HN shift their tone to being neutral or even mildly optimistic, then I will start worrying. That seems to have happened around 2023 or so as people chose to laud over AI instead of understanding the underpinnings of society coming undone in real time. So, should I be worried?

No, because your pessimistic feelings only serve to strengthen my claim. I find it amusing that, even when directly calling attention to the overwhelming pessimism that is the default-state on HN, I'm met with a pessimistic comment with zero self awareness.

>because your pessimistic feelings only serve to strengthen my claim.

So me pointing out optimism in discussion strengthens your claim, because it's specifically my feelings that prove your point.

Well I'm glad you can prove yourself right, if nothing else:

>When the bitter, frustrated pessimists on HN shift their tone to being neutral or even mildly optimistic, then I will start worrying.

Denial sure is a worrying point.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#242

Post by Espressosaurus »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #195
bayarearefugee wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 'this time it's different' I remember reading this a lot in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008 That said, overall I sort of agree with your assessment except for having any optimism that the US changes course. The current looming problems with the US economy are almost entirely unforced errors of the Trump administration (they could have done basically nothing and taken credit for the Biden soft landing and economic growth) b…

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

How much of America’s growth since the 40s is attributable to its hegemony, stability, and the emergence of USD as the reserve currency of the world? And where other developed, stable nations started dropping in population, the US continued growing thanks to immigration and its center as a research Mecca.

All of those are being unwound as we speak, and it’ll take decades to prove to the world that any trade policy and government agreements may be kept longer than 4 years.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#243

Post by johnnyanmac »

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #220
benrutter wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The question is there is no other place for money to go. Whenever I've heard people speculate on the US bond market losing its footing, the suggestion isn't that "Japan will be the new US" (eg) - it's that investor will spread assets across multiple places (US, Japan, EU, etc) to hedge against risk, rather than just the US.

That's not an answer. Japan and the EU can't handle those flows so again there is no other place to go.

Even if it's hopeless, the best strategy when everything is falling is to bet evenly. Whether or not those countries can "handle it" doesn't matter.

You're not betting in winning, you're betting on minimalizing losses. Huge difference in behavior.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#244

Post by JackFr »

baby_souffle wrote: post #214
JKCalhoun wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

[flagged]

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#245

Post by phkahler »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

The dollar is going down in value right now. Thats the plan. It makes foreign goods more expensive and exports more affordable to other countries. Meanwhile it should have less inflationary pressure on domestically produced stuff like housing.

I dont know if this is going to work or collapse. If it does work IMO they still need to reduce the debt - current actions are because we are backed into a corner, so that needs to be corrected.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#246

Post by backpackviolet »

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #239
baby_souffle wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

The rest of the Republican Party is completely devoid of charisma, especially the kind that drew so many voters to Trump. There is no drop-in replacement. Lots of money will be spent trying to manufacture a replacement, though. That will be fun to watch. If you thought the last-minute rally around Kamala was tough to watch…

But what the republican party has, is a lot of isolationist voters who cannot be moved by appeals to markets or international trade. They don’t care about that stuff.

Sure, the republicans will look hilarious trying to replace Trump for a while … but those Americans aren’t going anywhere and will gladly vote for the next Trump whenever they show up, same as they voted for Reagan and Bush II.

The American attitude driving this current period is much deeper and wider than one man, and people thinking it will all go away when one old man steps down are going to be “surprised” when we’re dealing with this again in ten years or twenty years or three years.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#247

Post by fcantournet »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

  ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point.
I'm not even sure what you're trying to say with the rest of it but this is nonsense. The ECB policy IS German, and has been for 3 decades. All of germany's economy is organized around the existence of the eurozone with Germany controlling a unified monetary policy.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#248

Post by JackFr »

torginus wrote: post #213
ahartmetz wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese economy is indisputably strong and real, but rumor has it that its reported growth numbers have been inflated in the last couple of years. And why wouldn't they be - there is an autocratic government whose justification is that what they are doing is increasing economic success. No success is not an option.

Personally I'm less and less inclined to believe in capitalism and money as a concept - we've long past moved the concept of money as universal barter, and into strange and speculative theories about how things ought to be valued, with the most valuable things either emerging from immediately unclear value propositions (impossibly valued companies, high-paid jobs that seemingly dont contribute to society) or artifici…

Much of the difference in the BYD cost is accounted for by a 27% tariff on the cars, transport and increased costs for warranty and compliance certification costs, as well as likely subsidies in the domestic market.

Of those, you’ll see that only transport costs are a function of “capitalism” the rest is government.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#249

Post by dyauspitr »

SllX wrote: post #152
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue. Right now this is much more of a maybe, possibly, eventually, over a long enough time horizon. As of the end of 2025, USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves vs 20% for the Euro and 3% for the Chinese renminbi. Nearly all commodities are stil…

That number has been dropping by a percent every year for USD over the last 10 years. It used to be 65% USD in 2015

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#250

Post by actionfromafar »

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #239
baby_souffle wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.

The rest of the Republican Party is completely devoid of charisma, especially the kind that drew so many voters to Trump. There is no drop-in replacement. Lots of money will be spent trying to manufacture a replacement, though. That will be fun to watch. If you thought the last-minute rally around Kamala was tough to watch…

Can't all that be solved by posting ICE guards around all polling stations?
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