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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#311

Post by PeterHolzwarth »

mschuster91 wrote: post #91
wolvoleo wrote: post #3

I do really hope the AI bubble will collapse soon. The sooner it blows the less damage it will do. And hopefully we can go back to doing real work without all these leadership guys breathing down our necks to see if we are doing enough of this AI all their shareholders want us to be involved in. It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. But we'll just have to…

> It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. Only to a very small degree and systems like Germany THANK GOD do not have any AI exposure at all. The real problem is that when the US sniffs, Europe gets a full blown cough. We are way too dependent on the US, we have seen that 2007ff, and we haven't changed a single darn thing.

>Only to a very small degree and systems like Germany THANK GOD do not have any AI exposure at all.

Well put, and it makes sobering reading to see the impact of what happened the last time Germany was deeply reliant on money from the US.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#312

Post by PeterHolzwarth »

ron_woods wrote: post #178

This long read by Grant Williams really helped put everything into context. https://www.epsilontheory.com/there-can-be-only-two/

A lot of us don't have time for all the long reads, podcasts, or in-depth videos posted in the discussion here. Able to provide a summary for us that expresses your general point? Those interested can then use your link to learn more.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#313

Post by happyopossum »

tock wrote: post #69

Stocks might go down if AI doesn't bring in enough revenue. The real risk seems to be currency depreciation though. The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro. I'm worried about what the next FED chair appointee will do. JPow has stuck to his principles so far.

> The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro.

False in every sense possible. For starters, the year is only a month old. Second, it’s been pretty stable for the past 6-7 months, and is only down 12% from a year ago - not 15%.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#314

Post by triceratops »

refurb wrote: post #307
triceratops wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the capital have to go anywhere? People just bid less and less for the same assets and prices go down. Margin calls happen and increase seller volume, prices go down further. And so on. I'm not saying all this will happen. Just that capital doesn't have to "go" anywhere for a crash to occur.

> Why does the capital have to go anywhere? People just bid less and less for the same assets and prices go down. So the law of supply and demand just magically reverses itself?

No idea what you're talking about. Explain.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#315

Post by PeterHolzwarth »

Noaidi wrote: post #9

No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. There were a lot of people who predicted the housing crash, not the timing but the crash. There are several signs that this is happening and the one no one is talking about is gold and silver prices. Don’t worry about the timing, you’ll never get the timing right, just worry about the fundame…

The Economist front page illustration of the 90s .com stock market, with the heading "CRASH DAMMIT!"

Everyone knew there was a bubble. People began to get impatient for what obviously was going to happen, as you say.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#316

Post by PeterHolzwarth »

refurb wrote: post #307
triceratops wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the capital have to go anywhere? People just bid less and less for the same assets and prices go down. Margin calls happen and increase seller volume, prices go down further. And so on. I'm not saying all this will happen. Just that capital doesn't have to "go" anywhere for a crash to occur.

> Why does the capital have to go anywhere? People just bid less and less for the same assets and prices go down. So the law of supply and demand just magically reverses itself?

People, or organizations, but mainly people, can just refuse to invest in stuff, parking their money in low-interest bank accounts, or the old style "stuffed into mattresses."

This was the multi-decade problem Japan ran into after its hot economy imploded, and unleashed the "lost decade" (which became decades). It was not a marginal issue, and for year the Japanese government tried everything it could think of to get people to invest in things - to little effect.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#317

Post by Fnoord »

krapp wrote: post #149
amanaplanacanal wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure left vs right is that useful a distinction. Both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany called themselves socialist, and both claimed to be doing what was best for their people.

>Both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany called themselves socialist, and both claimed to be doing what was best for their people. The Nazis weren't socialist. They appropriated the term as a propaganda tactic, a means of appealing to the masses. North Korea calls itself a democratic republic, but is obviously neither. One can't simply assume political labels to be correct. In terms of their actual policies and belief…

One could argue fascism is a subset of populism.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#318

Post by [deleted] »

bayarearefugee wrote: post #254
JackFr wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I agree that the Democratic party has fumbled the ball (over and over) and deserves a lot of blame for where we are now, but all of the trans talk in 2024 was driven entirely by the right. The Democratic party wasn't talking about trans people in 2024 (if anything the Democratic campaign was conspicuously avoiding the conversation entirely). The trans "debate" that people remember from that time period was driven ent…

[deleted]

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#319

Post by PeterHolzwarth »

scotty79 wrote: post #73
Smaug123 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you clarify the question? When everything's going up, it's definitionally not a crash; do you mean something like "where are people going to flee to now/soon, in anticipation of a crash, given how buoyant everything is"?

That exodus is what crash is. Yes. My question is where "they" are going flee to in anticipation of the crash to actually make the crash happen.

This is a great question, and one that drives right to the key issue! (oh god, that sounds like an LLM response, sorry)

Like with the implosion of the Japanese economy, people will just not invest, instead parking their money in low-yield bank accounts. It was, in some cases continues to be, an issue for that country.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#320

Post by chasd00 »

junto wrote: post #229
SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

I’ve been through several recessions. Painfully I’ve learnt that you want to work in an industry that is largely recession proof. Focus on industries that sell things that people need and will try to keep buying right down to their last buck. Food, utilities, insurance. People don’t like sitting in the dark. People need water. People need to eat. People really don’t like living without insurance cover or to let cover…

2008/2009 I was working in healthcare and just got to sit back and watch the drama. People get sick and need their medicine no matter how bad the economy is collapsing.
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