231–240 of 697 posts
I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…
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Assets traditionally used for such hedge are already massively inflated (look gold an silver price charts), so I'm not sure it's worth it. This all depends on what timelines you work on, how many assets you are trying to protect. Alternatively you protect yourself by lowering your dependence on steady income.
Yeah, as a SWE I just got sufficient money to pay my expenses AND have some to invest quite recently (about 2/1 months ago), but I basically froze the money instead of investing because everything seems overvalued and about to fall (even silver and gold).
Also (not a financial advisor), when a crash occur there is a so called "flight for quality" where people move money they made by cashing out the assets to stable (A+ assets). So look for companies that have solid financials and can weather the storm.
Finally, diversify not only on the industry, but also geographically. EU, Swiss, Asian. I personally stay a bit away from emerging markets stuff as I don't have enough knowledge to make informed decisions (I don't even consider Emerging Market ETFs which should be run by SMEs).
If Russia's economy is kept afloat after 4 years of full-scale war... Why would one year of Trump 2.0 do us in? Don't get me wrong, a whole lot of problematic actions have been taken in that time-frame but that pales in comparison to 1.25 million casualties and about the same number having left the country (and our population is almost triple theirs) on top of infrastructure destruction.
But OTOH, if Trump is erratic enough to trigger a world-wide de-dollarization trend, and close down markets that were traditionaly open (e.g. Europe), then US would be facing an unprecedented storm that would be much harder to navigate.
Who is "we" in that sentence?
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Buy high, sell low. Excellent result when you follow the masses, especially when being a little late.
Where was I giving that advice? Gold and silver mining stocks are extremely low compared to the price of gold and silver buying mining socks right now is buying low.
The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…
I don't know what that means? Market crashes are changes in speculative value, they don't care about counting literal amounts of currency. Selling US securities doesn't require that the resulting "liquidity" move anywhere else, just that the owner prefers to see a cash balance to a stock certificate or whatever.
Basically this point seems like a big "confused money with value" mistake.
Some advice for those who are young: If every idiot (I'm including myself in this) on HN/Reddit/Youtube/Tiktok/mainstream news/etc. thinks we're in a bubble and is crazy pessimistic and thinks economic collapse is near...it means we're not actually in a bubble. When the bitter, frustrated pessimists on HN shift their tone to being neutral or even mildly optimistic, then I will start worrying. Because that will mean t…
>When the bitter, frustrated pessimists on HN shift their tone to being neutral or even mildly optimistic, then I will start worrying. That seems to have happened around 2023 or so as people chose to laud over AI instead of understanding the underpinnings of society coming undone in real time. So, should I be worried?
I find it amusing that, even when directly calling attention to the overwhelming pessimism that is the default-state on HN, I'm met with a pessimistic comment with zero self awareness.
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> It happened to blockchain, it happened to metaverse. I don't think AI is comparable to these technologies. AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc. While the metaverse was just a fantasy with no tangible benefit other than Zuck trying to create his own platform to take on Apple and Google. Blockchain had some potential in certain fields, but it wasn't user-friendly or usable by…
> AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc. You aren't addressing the issue at hand, the problem isn't a total lack of impact, it's the cost of that impact, both the actual and the opportunity cost of it . Currently, the AI "revolution" is running on pure credit - as every other bubble - even the operating costs of the AI supply chain exceed its income and economic impact. Their c…
It’s not like I can even leave for greener pastures, there’s nowhere to go.
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Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.
Trump, yes. The millions of people that voted for him multiple times despite no shortage of reports and credible allegations that he was a scumbag... Will not. Trump isn't the problem, he's a symptom.
Lots of money will be spent trying to manufacture a replacement, though. That will be fun to watch. If you thought the last-minute rally around Kamala was tough to watch…
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> Their biggest problem[…] is demographic in nature. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2024/
Great website, not going to downplay the problem, but you can check out other countries, and see that a lot of places - particularly in the West - are f*cked. That China is too, is not much of an upside, Honestly its kinda shocking how bad things are going to get, and Im not sure what can be done if anything at this point.