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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#181

Post by bigbadfeline »

mahirsaid wrote: post #172

The Typical language of believers is to say no that wont happen and how? I learned and studied enough history and the usual narrative is to not accept something that is possibly so catastrophic that it will change their way of life. The tech bubble is another story and to be study on it's own, but it was summarized well that is The housing market is simply stupid, im sorry i don't have another word for it that better…

> People truly think that home prices are expected to keep rising and to what extent and why?

Home prices aren't rising, the value of dollar keeps, and is expected to keep, falling.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#182

Post by willhslade »

tsoukase wrote: post #169

A have a bad feeling for the US economy. A decline comes soon, then prepare for impact with a financial crisis and in the end of the tunnel the IMF. I know it's super crazy but that was also for my country 16 years ago.

Greece? How did it go after the crisis?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#183

Post by benrutter »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

> The question is there is no other place for money to go.

Whenever I've heard people speculate on the US bond market losing its footing, the suggestion isn't that "Japan will be the new US" (eg) - it's that investor will spread assets across multiple places (US, Japan, EU, etc) to hedge against risk, rather than just the US.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#184

Post by repelsteeltje »

Noaidi wrote: post #99
repelsteeltje wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was thinking the same, but why would everyone be more interested in gold an silver in a couple of months than they are right now? Sure it beats holding dollars of stocks. But, keeping both feet on the ground, I'm tempted to think that if the economy collapses I'd not be very interested in buying precious metals. I'd be looking for food, a roof to live under and safety.

You can invest in silver mining stocks, and be concerned about food at the same time. One is for long-term survival. The other is for short term survival. You can think of things like toilet paper and razors as bartering tools or actual new money, and the golden silver investments as objection of the current money you have right now. My grandfather lives in a great depression in Manhattan. He told me some crazy stori…

Coincidentally: Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/silver-gold-fall-price-usd-d...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#185

Post by dh2022 »

stockresearcher wrote: post #179
sokka_h2otribe wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Refinancing and loans work differently outside of the U.S. what I don't remember is exactly how. If I recall, you can't refinance without paying

Prepayment penalties are illegal for the vast majority of loans that consumers can get in the US, which makes it a no-brainer to refinance any time the payment saving exceeds the cost of writing a new loan. The Trump admin has floated the idea of allowing prepayment penalties in home mortgages, BTW.

Would you mind posting a link where Trump wanted to allow prepayment penalties? This sounds unbelievable.

Every home owner in the US would be against it (especially the ones who got their mortgages in the past two years at relatively high interest rates).

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#186

Post by tsoukase »

willhslade wrote: post #182
tsoukase wrote: post #169

A have a bad feeling for the US economy. A decline comes soon, then prepare for impact with a financial crisis and in the end of the tunnel the IMF. I know it's super crazy but that was also for my country 16 years ago.

Greece? How did it go after the crisis?

Yes. Until 2019 we stagnated. Since then we have the best Prime M of the last 100 years, Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He has made some incredible stuff and some mistakes, too, but they are nothing relatively to the Balkan traitors of the past. The country has rebooted and from an IMF victim it has become an exception in the current European/world shity situation. He decided to remain a third term, going to have almost a double score from the leftists in the 2027 elections, so I advise you to invest in Athens stock exchange.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#187

Post by benrutter »

incomingpain wrote: post #117

Last 2 reported quarters have 3.8% and 4.4% gdp growth. Next report is end of february. So it's minimum 4 months away at earliest. Stock markets are at 10 year peaks. Unemployment is a little bit high at 4.5%. Inflation is a little bit high at 2.7% US government debt is very high at 125% PMIs are strong across the board. Also in context, trillions in declared new investments in the usa. Probably trillions more in und…

I don't think this proves/suggests a crash will happen, but its worth considering most of what you've said would have been true right up until both the 2008 financial crash and the dotcom bubble.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#188

Post by mahirsaid »

bigbadfeline wrote: post #181
mahirsaid wrote: post #172

The Typical language of believers is to say no that wont happen and how? I learned and studied enough history and the usual narrative is to not accept something that is possibly so catastrophic that it will change their way of life. The tech bubble is another story and to be study on it's own, but it was summarized well that is The housing market is simply stupid, im sorry i don't have another word for it that better…

> People truly think that home prices are expected to keep rising and to what extent and why? Home prices aren't rising, the value of dollar keeps, and is expected to keep, falling.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA I was taking this as an example.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#190

Post by bigbadfeline »

Oras wrote: post #62
wolvoleo wrote: post #3

I do really hope the AI bubble will collapse soon. The sooner it blows the less damage it will do. And hopefully we can go back to doing real work without all these leadership guys breathing down our necks to see if we are doing enough of this AI all their shareholders want us to be involved in. It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. But we'll just have to…

> It happened to blockchain, it happened to metaverse. I don't think AI is comparable to these technologies. AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc. While the metaverse was just a fantasy with no tangible benefit other than Zuck trying to create his own platform to take on Apple and Google. Blockchain had some potential in certain fields, but it wasn't user-friendly or usable by…

> AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc.

You aren't addressing the issue at hand, the problem isn't a total lack of impact, it's the cost of that impact, both the actual and the opportunity cost of it.

Currently, the AI "revolution" is running on pure credit - as every other bubble - even the operating costs of the AI supply chain exceed its income and economic impact. Their capital expenses are orders of magnitude higher and constitute a severe drag on the rest of the economy.

There's no indication that anything would change in the future, more AI leads to less employment, less disposable income and less income for the AI providers - it's a race to the bottom.

If this isn't reversed, it will soon end in bank bailouts, more inflation and income degradation for those bellow the top tier.

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