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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#171

Post by robinsoncrusue »

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in sight. All in all, there is a lot of doom and gloom out there. But I don't see a viable alternative.

Sure, Mark Carney gave his little speech in Davos. The same Mark Carney, that led Brookfield while its finance arms operating out of US.

But realistically, how is opening up to China more even considered as the alternative? When has any deal with China worked at a strategic advantage for the other side? Is not the whole reason the so called globalization project failed was because players like China did not play by the same rule or did not even have to play by the same rule? What gives they will when you open up the market more to them? All it takes is for them to take your product, copy it and sell it 20x cheaper and flood the market everywhere else.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#172

Post by mahirsaid »

The Typical language of believers is to say no that wont happen and how? I learned and studied enough history and the usual narrative is to not accept something that is possibly so catastrophic that it will change their way of life.

The tech bubble is another story and to be study on it's own, but it was summarized well that is The housing market is simply stupid, im sorry i don't have another word for it that better describes the current take on this matter. Home prices are outrageous because of market driven assumptions. A house is technically worth $150 is now on the market for $350 and why is that. from 2 years ago. People truly think that home prices are expected to keep rising and to what extent and why? They couldn't tell youAll of the US economy seems to be in protection mode right now. As to say it's the mother that doesn't want you to go out again after falling of your bike and scuffing your knee on the pavement.

tariffs were used the wrong way this time around, inevitably the very purpose of them was not so effective, it backfired, Damage is done and reputation is broken in a lot of ways. Britain is renegotiation relationships with china, Canada is renegotiation relationship with China, EU is renegotiation relationships with India and China. All with successful results.

There is a lot of stake here the US has a lot to offer to the world and to use that as weapon is tends to not have a good outcome. The market is large, yes it is resilient to some factors but not all/ When collapse takes place there will be tremendous momentum and its going to be hard to stop.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#173

Post by Henchman21 »

n0um3n4 wrote: post #22

my bet is: "new" tech, emphasis on "new", will keep US on top or whatever US become after the big reveal.

I hope that after the Big Reveal, nationalism will immediately begin to fade away and we can start tackling species-level problems, like the plastic everywhere and in all of us, or dying ecosystems, or ... literally anything other than commerce.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#174

Post by saguntum »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

What is a mess about the Eurozone and reckless about the ECB?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#175

Post by CamperBob2 »

incomingpain wrote: post #117

Last 2 reported quarters have 3.8% and 4.4% gdp growth. Next report is end of february. So it's minimum 4 months away at earliest. Stock markets are at 10 year peaks. Unemployment is a little bit high at 4.5%. Inflation is a little bit high at 2.7% US government debt is very high at 125% PMIs are strong across the board. Also in context, trillions in declared new investments in the usa. Probably trillions more in und…

The person declaring "trillions in new investments" is Donald Trump. He doesn't understand how tariffs work, he doesn't understand how trade works, and he doesn't understand how the truth works.

So many of the stats you mention are based on potentially-untruthful statements from the Trump administration. When the facts and figures aren't favorable to Trump, his strategy is to shoot the messenger and install his cronies. Works great, right up until it doesn't.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#176

Post by throwawayqqq11 »

robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

We have so many problems. So many savaged construction sites that we knew for decades were important. The problem is not, where all this fiat money could go, there are plenty of places. The problem is, where it can go and make a profit. That was a hint to broaden your perspective.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#177

Post by robinsoncrusue »

saguntum wrote: post #174
robinsoncrusue wrote: post #171

The question is there is no other place for money to go. Liquidity is still in abundance and no other market can capture that liquidity. Eurozone is a total mess, ECB is doing one reckless thing after another which will inevitably lead to Germany leaving Eurozone at some point. Japan market is a joke, Asia and emerging market has huge governance issues. Bond market has penalized the investors and only more pain is in…

What is a mess about the Eurozone and reckless about the ECB?

https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-principal-agent-prob...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#179

Post by stockresearcher »

sokka_h2otribe wrote: post #163
dh2022 wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why you could not refinance when the rates went to 0%? In the US a lot of people did that in 2009/2010 and then again during COVID

Refinancing and loans work differently outside of the U.S. what I don't remember is exactly how. If I recall, you can't refinance without paying

Prepayment penalties are illegal for the vast majority of loans that consumers can get in the US, which makes it a no-brainer to refinance any time the payment saving exceeds the cost of writing a new loan.

The Trump admin has floated the idea of allowing prepayment penalties in home mortgages, BTW.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#180

Post by chillacy »

acuozzo wrote: post #165
torginus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why people expect the Chinese economy to crash - they can basically make everything, a lot of which is internationally competitive, they can trade for the resources they don't have with the goods that they do - with basically the whole world dependent on them. They have a huge internal base of poor people, and lifting them to a middle class level will alone fuel domestic demand for years to come. T…

> Their biggest problem[…] is demographic in nature. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2024/

Korea has a similar demographic shape, and Japan already passed its peak in 2005ish https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2024/
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