Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

wilsoniumite.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 697 posts

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#21

Post by mschuster91 »

wolvoleo wrote: post #4
newsclues wrote: post #2

Who do we expect will replace Americas global leadership and will they really be better for everyone?

China probably. No I don't think it is better but at least their leadership is actually sane. Evil, but sane and predictable.

China wants but China won't. They lack the military capability of force projection that is the basis of the US dollar dominance, their currency cannot be used as a reserve/trading currency due to capital transfer controls (that have no sign of ever going away because otherwise everyone who has money in China will move it immediately out of the reach of the CCP), foreign investors have gotten very skeptical over the years regarding IP theft on one side and supply chain law issues (e.g. underage labor, 996 and modern slavery, environmental concerns) on the other, and on top of that China is getting rocked hard by the inevitable consequences of the one-child policy that is driving up labor costs, further reducing the attractivity for foreign investors.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#23

Post by bborud »

ranguna wrote: post #11
newsclues wrote: post #2

Who do we expect will replace Americas global leadership and will they really be better for everyone?

No one, we don't need a leader. We need decentralised governance.

We have that. What has broken down is cooperation. The kind that has ensured relative peace for 80’ish years. That order is breaking down and creates instability. Instability means more conflict and less productive use of resources.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#24

Post by devnonymous »

philipallstar wrote: post #10

> This is the 11th time that tariffs have happened, and it just isn’t surprising anymore. There are tariffs everywhere, all the time. Canada just dramatically cut its 90% (or something) tariff on Chinese cars. Tariffs haven't just started happening because someone you don't like did them.

Otoh, tarrifs as a foreign policy / coercion method disconnected from trade and local economy impacts definitely is a new thing.

Sure, it might have been used as a delicate lever previously but in its current brazen form is just bad diplomacy.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#25

Post by throwawayqqq11 »

scotty79 wrote: post #5
wolvoleo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China probably. No I don't think it is better but at least their leadership is actually sane. Evil, but sane and predictable.

Even the evil adjective starts to look debatable in contrast to what current hegemony is doing on its way down. Apparently their worst offence so far was calmly outgrowing and out competing their peers while benefiting global consumers with he fruits of organized labor of their own society.

Iam sceptical whether china is more evil than the current and historic US. Both countries have commited atrocities but the US was way more involved "for their interests overseas". Maybe the western distrust towards china will make it a different power equilibrium.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#26

Post by bilekas »

philipallstar wrote: post #10

> This is the 11th time that tariffs have happened, and it just isn’t surprising anymore. There are tariffs everywhere, all the time. Canada just dramatically cut its 90% (or something) tariff on Chinese cars. Tariffs haven't just started happening because someone you don't like did them.

This is incredibly disingenuous.

> Tariffs haven't just started happening because someone you don't like did them

Nobody said they have, throwing ridiculously high ones with your allies and trading partners is new though.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#27

Post by czechdeveloper »

SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

Assets traditionally used for such hedge are already massively inflated (look gold an silver price charts), so I'm not sure it's worth it.

This all depends on what timelines you work on, how many assets you are trying to protect.

Alternatively you protect yourself by lowering your dependence on steady income.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#28

Post by SchwKatze »

Noaidi wrote: post #15
SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

Gold and silver mining stocks. And International ETF funds. It looks like the United States will be going through the depression alone.

I saw the graphs of some silver mining stocks and it seems to just follow silver price, why don't just buy silver then?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#30

Post by bborud »

mschuster91 wrote: post #21
wolvoleo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China probably. No I don't think it is better but at least their leadership is actually sane. Evil, but sane and predictable.

China wants but China won't. They lack the military capability of force projection that is the basis of the US dollar dominance, their currency cannot be used as a reserve/trading currency due to capital transfer controls (that have no sign of ever going away because otherwise everyone who has money in China will move it immediately out of the reach of the CCP), foreign investors have gotten very skeptical over the y…

China doesn’t need to project force. Economics might is sufficient.

Yes, they want Taiwan, but that’s a silly national pride thing. It would not really benefit them to take it by force.

Post reply on HN