Earlier quoted context omitted.
This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great? I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because…
> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening. Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?
Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
141–150 of 697 posts
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
No words are not required. Authoritarian. Totalitarian. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_fascism is an OLD term.
None of these are "communism"... people who don't know better use it as a "china bad" gotcha because it's about as far as their political education allows them to think but it really is way more complex than that. > Authoritarian. Totalitarian. Yes these apply, but they're not synonyms of communism. The Iranian government is authoritarian, totalitarian and absolutely not communist > Red fascism is an OLD term. But su…
I'm not sure left vs right is that useful a distinction. Both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany called themselves socialist, and both claimed to be doing what was best for their people.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#143I think the government is laser focused on reducing regulations, reducing energy costs, reducing interest rates, a weaker dollar that makes exports better, minimizing taxes. Technological innovation is increasing overall productivity. There are definite headwinds like upward pressure on labor by reducing the worker population, stagnating population growth, undertainty, tarriffs, a weaker dollar increasing inflation.…
The thing I don’t get is that IMO Americans have a higher standard of living due to demand for the dollar. Being a net importer means they make less and the countries they’re importing from make more. Money = labor = people working, so people in other countries are working harder than Americans to benefit Americans with a higher standard of living.
It’s like a roofer working for a contractor that’s a millionaire and the contractor is upset because he’s paying the roofer while having a higher standard of living because of the profit made off the roofer’s labor.
No one is working for that rich contractor if his money is worthless. Isn’t a weaker dollar for America a disaster? The world works to serve America right now because of the dollar. Life’s going to be tough when America has to “get a job” and start earning their keep with real productivity contributions, isn’t it?
Maybe I’m just dumb, but all I can see is a massive drop in the average standard of living if the US maintains their current trajectory. It might even be too late already.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening. Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?
All time high if denominated in USD. YoY, stocks have been increasing in value as fast as USD is losing to CHF. Regardless of whether gold and silver jumps are a pump and dump, stocks, in "real" value, are at most flat.
Well it's an all time high in EUR as well for instance. I haven't checked for CHF or other currency one may cherry-pick, but in any case it wouldn't change my point: even if it was slightly below an all time high, it's not currently crashing.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#145I think the government is laser focused on reducing regulations, reducing energy costs, reducing interest rates, a weaker dollar that makes exports better, minimizing taxes. Technological innovation is increasing overall productivity. There are definite headwinds like upward pressure on labor by reducing the worker population, stagnating population growth, undertainty, tarriffs, a weaker dollar increasing inflation.…
I'd be interested to hear your idea in more detail (e.g., policy statements, metrics, etc.)
My read of the last year is that the current government's goals and outcomes are somewhat different, but I could be wrong.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#146Some sort of an AI crash / bubble bursting is expected to be honest - now if that will take the rest of the US economy as well.... debatable. Any strong opinions on this?
What else does the economy consist of these days? It's pretty much already in a recession if you exclude the big AI companies. Besides, basically every company had been desperately shoving AI into all their products. Throwing all of that out when the bubble pops won't be pretty.
I imagine depreciated AI features will be like the soft varnish surfaces of some 90s cars after 10 years - disgustingly sticky, shedding flakes left and right, and in hindsight an obviously stupid idea that wasn't tested sufficiently before pushing it on consumers
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening. Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?
It’s funny when people just determine that a crash only happens when the stock market crashes. Things were crashing in the housing market before the stock market crashed in 2008. Do your homework.
> Do your homework.
About what though? You haven't explained what you meant by a crash so I don't have much more to go by to understand your point.
If not the stock market, what's the market you mean is currently crashing?
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not necessarily. But China's aggression towards Taiwan and their recent rare earth metals move last year show that China does not have the worlds best interests at heart either. We're picking between two evils and China's evil is more predictable than the US's right now. This goes for Asia in general. Korea, Japan, and China spent centuries fighting and making them the de facto super power makes it easy to resume the…
How much coal do they burn? Did climate change suddenly become NOT an existential threat? Are their global fishing fleets sustainable? Where do the precursors for fentanyl come from?
I have to say that China will probably be a major force in reducing carbon emissions. Yes, China burns a lot of coal; but they also produce and deploy a lot of solar, wind, and soon nuclear energy. Someone else said it better: future will run on China’s batteries.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
None of these are "communism"... people who don't know better use it as a "china bad" gotcha because it's about as far as their political education allows them to think but it really is way more complex than that. > Authoritarian. Totalitarian. Yes these apply, but they're not synonyms of communism. The Iranian government is authoritarian, totalitarian and absolutely not communist > Red fascism is an OLD term. But su…
I'm not sure left vs right is that useful a distinction. Both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany called themselves socialist, and both claimed to be doing what was best for their people.
>Both the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany called themselves socialist, and both claimed to be doing what was best for their people.
The Nazis weren't socialist. They appropriated the term as a propaganda tactic, a means of appealing to the masses. North Korea calls itself a democratic republic, but is obviously neither. One can't simply assume political labels to be correct. In terms of their actual policies and beliefs, the Nazis were vehemently anti-socialist.
Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon
#150I think the government is laser focused on reducing regulations, reducing energy costs, reducing interest rates, a weaker dollar that makes exports better, minimizing taxes. Technological innovation is increasing overall productivity. There are definite headwinds like upward pressure on labor by reducing the worker population, stagnating population growth, undertainty, tarriffs, a weaker dollar increasing inflation.…
The thing I don’t get is that IMO Americans have a higher standard of living due to demand for the dollar. Being a net importer means they make less and the countries they’re importing from make more. Money = labor = people working, so people in other countries are working harder than Americans to benefit Americans with a higher standard of living. It’s like a roofer working for a contractor that’s a millionaire and…
>massive drop in the average standard of living if the US maintains their current trajectory.
Very rich people control the narrative in the US and get poor people to repeat their claims. Hence where we get statements like this from.
>“John Steinbeck once said that socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.”
The thing is the billionaires/trillionaires don't care as long as they get more power. They'll eat the goose that lays the golden eggs.
You see a ton of this with Trump voters like my grandma that are getting screwed over with medicare changes and live in some kind of grand delusion that Trump is doing exactly what he said he was going to do in cutting benefits, and yet somehow it's all the democrats fault (???).