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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#131

Post by qnpnpmqppnp »

Noaidi wrote: post #128
padjo wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At any given moment there is always someone predicting that the economy will crash. So someone will always have predicted it. The question is do they actually have some insight or were they just lucky.

This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great? I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because…

> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening.

The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening.

Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#132

Post by mschuster91 »

bborud wrote: post #30
mschuster91 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China wants but China won't. They lack the military capability of force projection that is the basis of the US dollar dominance, their currency cannot be used as a reserve/trading currency due to capital transfer controls (that have no sign of ever going away because otherwise everyone who has money in China will move it immediately out of the reach of the CCP), foreign investors have gotten very skeptical over the y…

China doesn’t need to project force. Economics might is sufficient. Yes, they want Taiwan, but that’s a silly national pride thing. It would not really benefit them to take it by force.

> Yes, they want Taiwan, but that’s a silly national pride thing. It would not really benefit them to take it by force.

We thought the same about Putin, and yet he went and invaded Ukraine.

We thought the same about Trump, and yet he went and abducted the president of a sovereign country.

Never underestimate nationalist BS or outright mental deficiency.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#133

Post by [deleted] »

mschuster91 wrote: post #91
wolvoleo wrote: post #3

I do really hope the AI bubble will collapse soon. The sooner it blows the less damage it will do. And hopefully we can go back to doing real work without all these leadership guys breathing down our necks to see if we are doing enough of this AI all their shareholders want us to be involved in. It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. But we'll just have to…

> It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. Only to a very small degree and systems like Germany THANK GOD do not have any AI exposure at all. The real problem is that when the US sniffs, Europe gets a full blown cough. We are way too dependent on the US, we have seen that 2007ff, and we haven't changed a single darn thing.

[deleted]

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#134

Post by vdupras »

qnpnpmqppnp wrote: post #131
Noaidi wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great? I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because…

> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening. Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?

All time high if denominated in USD. YoY, stocks have been increasing in value as fast as USD is losing to CHF. Regardless of whether gold and silver jumps are a pump and dump, stocks, in "real" value, are at most flat.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#135

Post by OGEnthusiast »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #51
teiferer wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Skill. Knowledge. At your age, your biggest assert is your future earnings potential. The more employable you are, the better you will make iduring and after a downturn. In fact, the highest skill folks tend to even profit from hiccups in the economy.

Are the ones newer to the workforce just screwed or is there a way out? Kinda sucks that all this went down around 6-7 years into my tenure and it's just been a few years of scraping together freelance + portfolio projects to try and climb out of tbis rut. (This might sadly be rhetorical given what I hear of '08, but perhaps there are new channels open to take advantage of. Or at least old channels to raise awareness…

Newer ones are definitely screwed.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#136

Post by daft_pink »

I think the government is laser focused on reducing regulations, reducing energy costs, reducing interest rates, a weaker dollar that makes exports better, minimizing taxes. Technological innovation is increasing overall productivity. There are definite headwinds like upward pressure on labor by reducing the worker population, stagnating population growth, undertainty, tarriffs, a weaker dollar increasing inflation.

There’s the looming threat of geopolitical world war that has been overhanging the world since the combination of the pandemic isolating different countries and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It’s really a mixed bag, but it’s not clear to me that we are headed into a total economic crash as the government is definitely focused on doing a lot of good things for the economy, but also is creating lots of different headwinds.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#137

Post by amanaplanacanal »

Noaidi wrote: post #128
padjo wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At any given moment there is always someone predicting that the economy will crash. So someone will always have predicted it. The question is do they actually have some insight or were they just lucky.

This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great? I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because…

I'm an old guy. Some people (goldbugs) have been predicting that the debt would lead to a crash since the 1970s. I'm withholding judgement.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#138

Post by NoGravitas »

lm28469 wrote: post #77
michaelsshaw wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that something good for China is necessarily bad for the rest of the world, which you seem to imply here includes only Europe. China alone has a higher population than Europe and the USA combined. I'd say that even if things got worse for Europe, to humanity it still constitutes a net benefit. Lives aren't of less value just because they're in a (gasp) communist country.

> communist country New things need new words to describe them, I know people love to call bad guys "nazis" or "communists" and that everyone seems stuck with 1939 lingo but come one. 1950s china isn't 1980s china which isn't 2026 china, yet they're all ""communists""

"Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the official name of the ideology of the Communist Party of China.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#139

Post by Noaidi »

qnpnpmqppnp wrote: post #131
Noaidi wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great? I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because…

> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening. Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?

It’s funny when people just determine that a crash only happens when the stock market crashes. Things were crashing in the housing market before the stock market crashed in 2008. Do your homework.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#140

Post by dh2022 »

mellosouls wrote: post #57
SchwKatze wrote: post #8

I'm kinda new into economy crashes, was a kid in 2008, is there a way to protect of it?

I (like I'm sure many others) predicted it in 2007 and hedged against it by getting a 10 year fixed mortgage at then-current rates on the basis that rates would go sky high as they had in earlier recessions in the UK. They plummeted to next-to-zero, and in addition to the injury I had to endure the insult of the people who hadn't seen it coming gloating about their low standard variable rates. Ofc I clearly didn't ha…

Why you could not refinance when the rates went to 0%? In the US a lot of people did that in 2009/2010 and then again during COVID
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