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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#121

Post by maxerickson »

FrancisMoodie wrote: post #110
maxerickson wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software productivity doubling would be a huge boon for the economy, not a drag. Of course it's very disruptive for people that lose their jobs, but many of them will get similar new jobs, and the overall impact is higher output.

If all companies fire 50% of their engineers, how will anybody find similar new jobs? In an ideal world software productivity doubling WOULD be a huge boon for the economy IF companies used the increased productivity of their engineers as a way to manage tech debt, R&D and other issues that were put in the backlog because historically there were no resources for this. In reality all companies look at increased produc…

If all companies fire 50% of their engineers,

This is not a reasonable premise.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#122

Post by AnimalMuppet »

Noaidi wrote: post #9

No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. There were a lot of people who predicted the housing crash, not the timing but the crash. There are several signs that this is happening and the one no one is talking about is gold and silver prices. Don’t worry about the timing, you’ll never get the timing right, just worry about the fundame…

Gold and silver are likely to crash. I don't think they are big enough to cause a crash of the overall economy, though.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#123

Post by AnimalMuppet »

lm28469 wrote: post #77
michaelsshaw wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that something good for China is necessarily bad for the rest of the world, which you seem to imply here includes only Europe. China alone has a higher population than Europe and the USA combined. I'd say that even if things got worse for Europe, to humanity it still constitutes a net benefit. Lives aren't of less value just because they're in a (gasp) communist country.

> communist country New things need new words to describe them, I know people love to call bad guys "nazis" or "communists" and that everyone seems stuck with 1939 lingo but come one. 1950s china isn't 1980s china which isn't 2026 china, yet they're all ""communists""

China is ruled by the Communist Party. It does not seem unreasonable to call them a communist country.

Yes, I know, they have moved away from historical communism, and it's more of a "brand name" than an ideological description. Still, it is their chosen name for what they're doing.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#124

Post by Ekaros »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #93
nodesocket wrote: post #71

I know HN always has its fair share of doomers, and generally the HN communities track record anecdotally regarding finance and the market is frankly terrible. Tesla (stock price wrong), Bitcoin (wrong), AI a huge dot com like bubble (wrong in my opinion - TBD though). I’m optimistic on the US. We could realistically print a 5 handle GDP, oil at rock bottom prices, lower federal income taxes this year. As far as Gold…

> We could realistically print a 5 handle GDP, oil at rock bottom prices, lower federal income taxes this year. Ignoring everything else in terms of oredictions: the US simply doesn't have that spending buffer anymore to really outspend yet another crash. Its at what, 37 trillion right now? And it's only rising more and more by the month. The only thing worse than a crash would be the US defaulting on that. And then…

Even if they don't default. How long there is willing investors? Even if FED drops rates. It is an auction. So rates should be set there. But maybe printing will happen via bigger and bigger market operations. Leading higher and higher rates. With probably inflation... So I suppose valuations could go even higher...

I do not understand economics and from engineer perspective whole thing doesn't make much sense.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#126

Post by Smaug123 »

scotty79 wrote: post #73
Smaug123 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you clarify the question? When everything's going up, it's definitionally not a crash; do you mean something like "where are people going to flee to now/soon, in anticipation of a crash, given how buoyant everything is"?

That exodus is what crash is. Yes. My question is where "they" are going flee to in anticipation of the crash to actually make the crash happen.

They're not definitionally the same. Normally a (stock market) crash is just "everyone's assessment of expected future cash flows goes down, meaning that what everyone owns is less valuable". One thing that can cause people's assessments to drop is "everyone else is withdrawing from it, which I assume means they're assessing it as being much less valuable, so they have information I don't, so I should revise downwards", which can make a self-sustaining feedback loop, but that's certainly not the only possible cause of a crash; I wouldn't even say it was the most likely cause of an AI-bubble crash.

My guesses would be "everyone's assessments go down together because OpenAI et al's predictions of their future revenue are observed to be consistently vastly overinflated vs actual performance, but everyone was previously assuming they were roughly correct" or "some political thing happens which makes OpenAI et al's services obviously much less valuable or makes them much less able to provide services".

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#127

Post by Noaidi »

SchwKatze wrote: post #28
Noaidi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold and silver mining stocks. And International ETF funds. It looks like the United States will be going through the depression alone.

I saw the graphs of some silver mining stocks and it seems to just follow silver price, why don't just buy silver then?

Mining stock are lagging, so they have the highest to go right now.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#128

Post by Noaidi »

padjo wrote: post #113
Noaidi wrote: post #9

No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. There were a lot of people who predicted the housing crash, not the timing but the crash. There are several signs that this is happening and the one no one is talking about is gold and silver prices. Don’t worry about the timing, you’ll never get the timing right, just worry about the fundame…

At any given moment there is always someone predicting that the economy will crash. So someone will always have predicted it. The question is do they actually have some insight or were they just lucky.

This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great?

I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because there is no way out. If they lower rates, inflation. If they raise them, assets collapse.

People have been warning about this exact secnario since 2008 and no one is listening. Back then it was a prediction, but now it is happening.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#130

Post by scotty79 »

wolvoleo wrote: post #20
scotty79 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the evil adjective starts to look debatable in contrast to what current hegemony is doing on its way down. Apparently their worst offence so far was calmly outgrowing and out competing their peers while benefiting global consumers with he fruits of organized labor of their own society.

I was referring more to the millions of Uyghurs in political prisons and their overreaching surveillance of the population. And I was just speaking of what I think about China, not saying the current US administration is any better. I don't think it will be there forever though.

Right the Uyghurs, a word we never knew before.

When faced with credible threat of islamic terror in their country China implemented some harsh, systemic ideas about what to do with it.

I'm sure if they just started two wars in the middle east instead the western community would be way more lenient towards them.

China did what it though was the correct thing and the west happily classified it as racism and religious persecution.

However when the pandemic came China had zero restraint towards applying harsh measures on the bulk of their population regardless of race and relligion. And while their solutions are harsh and possibly incorrect is it really unique on the global stage?

US, the shining city on the hill, when faced with a problem of having inadequate social support systems to help the more recent immigrants decided that it will try to build concentration camps on the teritorry of one of their closest vassals. This can't be correct or humane solution either.

And when it comes to surveillance, China is on the forefront, but US and UK closely follow. What's different is that China does their surveillance overtly and tries to make it socially useful. I don't for one second believe that technologically Palantir and such are more than one step behind.

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