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Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

marginlab.ai

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Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#231
post #220
post #191

Hi everyone, Thariq from the Claude Code team here. Thanks for reporting this. We fixed a Claude Code harness issue that was introduced on 1/26. This was rolled back on 1/28 as soon as we found it. Run `claude update` to make sure you're on the latest version.

Hi. Do you guys have internal degradation tests?

I assume so to make sure that they're rendering at 60FPS

Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> We never reduce model quality due to demand, time of day, or server load. The problems our users reported were due to infrastructure bugs alone. Just ignore the continual degradation of service day over day, long after the "infrastructure bugs" have reportedly been solved. Oh, and I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell ya, it's a great deal!

> We never reduce model quality due to demand, time of day, or server load Forgive me, but as a native English speaker, this sentence says exactly one thing to me; We _do_ reduce model quality, just not for these listed reasons. If they don't do it, they could put a full stop after the fifth word and save some ~~tokens~~ time.

Yes, Dario is responsible for some of the weaseliest of corporate weasel wording I've ever seen, and he's got some incredible competition in that arena. Those things aren't the reason, they're just strongly coincidental with the actual reason, which is to slow the burn rate and extend the runway.

Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#235
post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so basically they know requests using your API key should be treated with care?

they could but you can also have some trust in anthropic to have some integrity there, these are earnest people. "trust but verify" ofc . https://latent.space/p/artificialanalysis do api keys but also mystery shopper checks

> these are earnest people.

I agree.

I'll also add that when my startup got acquired into a very large, well-known valley giant with a sterling rep for integrity and I ended up as a senior executive - over time I got a first-hand education on the myriad ways genuinely well-intentioned people can still end up being the responsible party(s) presiding over a system doing net-wrong things. All with no individual ever meaning to or even consciously knowing.

It's hard to explain and I probably wouldn't have believed myself before I saw and experienced it. Standing against an overwhelming organizational tide is stressful and never leads to popularity or promotion. I think I probably managed to move on before directly compromising myself but preventing that required constant vigilance and led to some inter-personal and 'official' friction. And, frankly, I'm not really sure. It's entirely possible I bear direct moral responsibility for a few things I believe no good person would do as an exec in a good company.

That's the key take-away which took me a while to process and internalize. In a genuinely good organization with genuinely good people, it's not "good people get pressured by constraints and tempted by extreme incentives, then eventually slip". I still talk with friends who are senior execs there and sometimes they want to talk about whether something is net good or bad. I kind of dread the conversation going there because it's inevitably incredibly complex and confusing. Philosopher's trolley car ethics puzzles pale next to these multi-layered, messy conundrums. But who else are they going to vent to who might understand? To be clear, I still believe that company and its leadership to be one of the most moral, ethical and well-intentioned in the valley. I was fortunate to experience the best case scenario.

Bottom line: if you believe earnest, good people being in charge is a reliable defense against the organization doing systemically net-wrong things - you don't comprehend the totality of the threat environment. And that's okay. Honestly, you're lucky. Because the reality is infinitely more ambiguously amoral than white hats vs black hats - at the end of the day the best the 'very good people' can manage is some shade of middle gray. The saddest part is that good people still care, so they want to check the shade of their hat but no one can see if it's light enough to at least tell yourself "I did good today."

Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For all practical purposes any code reliant on the output of a PRNG is non-deterministic in all but the most pedantic senses... And if the LLM temperature isn't set to 0 LLMs are sampling from a distribution. If you're going to call a PRNG deterministic then the outcome of a complicated concurrent system with no guaranteed ordering is going to be deterministic too!

No, this isn't right. There are totally legitimate use cases for PRNGs as sources of random number sequences following a certain probability distribution where freezing the seed and getting reproducibility is actually required.

And for a complicated concurrent system you can also replay the exact timings and orderings as well!

Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it possible that your expectations are increasing, not that the model is getting worse?

Possible, though you eventually run into types of issues that you recall the model just not having before. Like accessing a database or not following the SOP you have it read each time it performs X routine task. There are also patterns that are much less ambiguous like getting caught in loops or failing to execute a script it wrote after ten attempts.

yes but i keep wondering if that's just the game of chance doing its thing

like these models are nondeterministic right? (besides the fact that rng things like top k selection and temperature exist)

say with every prompt there is 2% odds the AI gets it massively wrong. what if i had just lucked out the past couple weeks and now i had a streak of bad luck?

and since my expectations are based on its previous (lucky) performance i now judge it even though it isn't different?

or is it giving you consistenly worse performance, not able to get it right even after clearing context and trying again, on the exact same problem etc?

Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#238
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to Anthropic: "We never reduce model quality due to demand, time of day, or server load." https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/a-postmortem-of-three-...

They've had issues before with things like "TPU top-k error - Claude sometimes dropped the best next token" ( https://www.anthropic.com/engineering/a-postmortem-of-three-... ) so what's going on might not be intentional even.

That issue did not have any time of day dependence

Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#239
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi. Do you guys have internal degradation tests?

I assume so to make sure that they're rendering at 60FPS

You joke but having CC open in the terminal hits 10% on my gpu to render the spinning thinking animation for some reason. Switch out of the terminal tab and gpu drops back to zero.

Re: Claude Code daily benchmarks for degradation tracking

#240

Wouldn't be surprised if they slowly start quantizing their models over time. Makes it easier to scale and reduce operational cost. Also makes a new release have more impact as it will be more notably "better" than what you've been using the past couple of days/weeks.

I don't think so. There are other knobs they can tweak to reduce load that affect quality less than quantizing. Like trimming the conversation length without telling you, reducing reasoning effort, etc.

We never do anything that reduce model intelligence like that
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