Live data from Hacker News

Tesla is committing automotive suicide

electrek.co

21–30 of 458 posts

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#21

The author said he saw Tesla prove that EVs were profitable, but it was profitable when taxpayers gave it $7,500 per vehicle sold... That's the whole profit margin on higher-end cars, and more profit than most mass-market makers get. EVs were never profitable.

Even when excluding regulatory credits and consumer tax incentives, Tesla’s automotive business remains profitable.

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): As of late 2024 and early 2025, Tesla’s average cost to produce a vehicle dropped to an all-time low of under $35,000.

Gross Margin: Tesla’s automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) has typically hovered between 15% and 18% recently. This means they earn several thousand dollars more per car than it costs them to build.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#22
post #2

What makes this move even more incredulous is that none of the two market they want to move towards are proven markets: - Waymo is generating less than 150m in 2025. - Consumer robotics is an absolute unknown. How can the transition be rationally justified? Let alone the valuation.

Consumer robotics strikes me as an engineering tar pit so deep it leads to hell. If full self driving is hard due to the long tail of unusual special cases, this is orders of magnitude worse.

Take FSD but multiply the number of actuators and degrees of freedom by at least 10, more like 100. Add a third dimension. Add direct physical interaction with complex objects. Add pets and children. Add toys on the floor. Add random furniture with non-standard dimensions. Add exposure to dust, dirt, water, grease, and who knows what else? Puke? Bleach? Dog pee?

Oh, and remove designated roads and standardized rules about how you're supposed to drive on those roads. There are no standards. Every home is arranged differently. People behave differently. Kids are nuts. The cat will climb on it. The dog may attack it. The pet rabbit will chew on any exposed cords.

We've all seen those Boston Dynamics robots. They're awesome but how durable would they be in those conditions? Would they last for years with day to day constant abuse in an environment like that?

From a pure engineering point of view (neglecting the human factor or cost) a home helper robot is almost definitely harder than building and operating a Mars base. We pretty much have all the core tech for that figured out: recycling atmosphere, splitting and making water, refining minerals, greenhouses, airlocks, and so on. As soon as we have Starship or another super heavy rocket that's reliable we could do it as long as someone was willing to write some huge checks.

And of course it's a totally untested market. We don't know how big it really is. Will people really be willing to pay thousands to tens of thousands for a home robot with significant limitations? Only about 25% of the market probably has the disposable income to afford these.

You'd have to go way up market first, but people up market can afford to just pay humans to do it.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#23
post #9
post #2

What makes this move even more incredulous is that none of the two market they want to move towards are proven markets: - Waymo is generating less than 150m in 2025. - Consumer robotics is an absolute unknown. How can the transition be rationally justified? Let alone the valuation.

Because it's hard and Tesla think they can do it. See 'reusable rockets' and 'having paralysed people control things with their minds' for other examples. HN often seem to think there's Elon fans downmodding things but it seems more like a case of irrational hatred.

So?

They could make the first working flying cars. They could work fantastically.

And maybe one they release them we find out… no one wants flying cars. They sell 500 a year despite only costing as much as a normal car.

Just because you can figure out how to do something doesn’t mean you’re going to make money at it.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#25

The author said he saw Tesla prove that EVs were profitable, but it was profitable when taxpayers gave it $7,500 per vehicle sold... That's the whole profit margin on higher-end cars, and more profit than most mass-market makers get. EVs were never profitable.

Also helps if Obama gives you $500M to R&D the Model S.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#26

I have to admit, I love my model S and have been very bullish of TSLA but this news makes me very bearish. There is no way they are going to make robots at scale in the next 5 years and the model s and model X are cool pieces of technology. If they dont start rolling out robotaxi extremely quickly to new locations, I cant imagine the stock going anywhere but down.

That is exactly the plan: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-confirms-robotaxi-expansion-...

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#27

The author said he saw Tesla prove that EVs were profitable, but it was profitable when taxpayers gave it $7,500 per vehicle sold... That's the whole profit margin on higher-end cars, and more profit than most mass-market makers get. EVs were never profitable.

If you want to deduct tax rebates, then what about the other side?

- New cars are subject to sales tax

- In some states (e.g., California), there are additional fees buried in DMV registration costs. California's Vehicle License Fee (VLF) is based on the depreciated value of the car. So newer and more expensive cars pay more to use the roads than do older cars. So the VLF is effectively another tax on new cars.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#28
post #16

BYD is slapping the EV industry around like a gorilla, Tesla simply cannot compete in any meaningful way. Waymo has achieved profit per unit and people are happy to see driver-less taxis in their city and pay for the service. Tesla also cannot justify valuations based on automotive sales/subscriptions alone - they were always going to have to pivot. They're in a tight spot and they need to do something drastic.

Yup, they pivoted to making robots and subsidizing X/Grok.

Well, they pivoted to saying they're going to make robots.

Any day now.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#29
post #7

Tesla also announced they will be discontinuing the basic lane keep + adaptive speed cruise control they helped pioneer in cars sold going forward. But this is now a standard (free) feature even in basic vehicles like the Toyota Corolla. Why would they intentionally cripple their vehicles to the point hat they would be inferior to most cars today? Then I learned that Musk's incentive pay has a 10 million full self-dr…

> Musk's incentive pay has a 10 million full self-driving subscription.

Step 1: > discontinu[e] the basic lane keep + adaptive speed cruise control

Step 2: Redefine "Full Self-Driving" to be those things. Charge 50 cents per month subscription or whatever.

Step 3: Get 10 million subscribers.

Step 4: 100 billion dollar payout! (Number pulled out of my butt)

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#30

The author said he saw Tesla prove that EVs were profitable, but it was profitable when taxpayers gave it $7,500 per vehicle sold... That's the whole profit margin on higher-end cars, and more profit than most mass-market makers get. EVs were never profitable.

EVs were profitable. The loss of the incentive has meant vendors need to adjust their pricing.

"Profitability" is a momentary property.

You could make ICE cars unprofitable by charging less than they cost to make too.

Post reply on HN