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Tesla ending Models S and X production

cnbc.com

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Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#231

Post by _ea1k »

harshaw wrote: post #15

I am confused about what Tesla is doing. They have effectively two automobile products now with one failed product (cybertruck). reading various articles about this doesn't make it more clear. Do they not want to be a car company?

They are almost exclusively focused on autonomous cars, humanoid robots, and energy (batteries now, maybe more solar manufacturing later).

As much as I dislike it, I can't disagree with the business case here. They already have >300k monthly subscribers at about $100/month. That business will grow rapidly from here as well as the robotaxi business itself.

Within 2 years, this business will look radically different just because of these two changes.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#232

Post by _ea1k »

annexrichmond wrote: post #219
harshaw wrote: post #15

I am confused about what Tesla is doing. They have effectively two automobile products now with one failed product (cybertruck). reading various articles about this doesn't make it more clear. Do they not want to be a car company?

How do you suppose Cybertruck is a failure? I see just as many of them as Rivians, while releasing over 5 years later.

It was estimated at >200k/year, but in reality is well under 50k/year. I'd say that is a failure compared to their guidance.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#233

Post by CamperBob2 »

adastra22 wrote: post #194
harshaw wrote: post #15

I am confused about what Tesla is doing. They have effectively two automobile products now with one failed product (cybertruck). reading various articles about this doesn't make it more clear. Do they not want to be a car company?

The meme stock run up made Tesla more valuable than the rest of the auto industry combined. They HAVE to find something bigger. I don’t think they have. Humanoid robots are a bad joke. But that’s why they are pivoting.

Humanoid robots make sense in only one context I can think of, and I definitely wouldn't put it past Musk to enter that market. It will be a big one. He may just be waiting for material science to catch up with his product vision. Much like Steve Jobs waited by the river until capacitive multitouch came floating by, and then pounced on it.

Meantime, as others have pointed out, the Model S and X are not selling enough to justify keeping the factory running. I don't see them going into Optimus production immediately, since as you suggest it's a solution looking for a problem.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#234

Post by steve_adams_86 »

jaimex2 wrote: post #199

Makes sense and it sounds like Optimus is getting ready for prime time. Are they betting Robotaxi will replace all cars in the future?

I'm likely out of the loop, but what evidence is there that Optimus is anywhere close to ready for prime time, or any commercialization at all? I haven't seen anything compelling yet outside of highly edited videos in controlled settings.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#235

Post by vtail »

rossjudson wrote: post #222
vtail wrote: post #162

"HN is dying" is a cliche, I know, but I seriously want to bookmark this thread to revisit it in 10 years - I'm sure it will age even better than (in)famous Dropbox thread. So from that perspective, HN is alive and well :). The level of cynicism of the discussion is overwhelming, frankly. I get it that some people don't like Musk because of his politics, but why should that prevent people interested in technology to…

What's with the "outdated" adjective? There's nothing in the US market even remotely close to the X. Every other EV is a slapdash pile of hoobajoobs and knobs that can't even drive itself. Source: 45000 miles in a bit over two years, loved every minute of it. Makes our other high priced German car a disappointing machine to be avoided if possible.

You might be more informed that I am. We only have 3 and Y in the family. I based my statement on th fact that S/X were last refreshed 5 years ago; so they would need to be refreshed fairly soon.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#236

Post by parineum »

adastra22 wrote: post #189
al_borland wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might be a little extreme. Tesla is making electric cars and robots. These are very much things of the future. GameStop is buying and selling used games, which is becoming impossible as consoles keep pushing for digital games. GameStop requires a major shift in their business model to stay relevant, while Tesla just needs to hope the public doesn’t reject the idea of electrics cars out of stubbornness or politic…

Electric cars, maybe. Tesla is valued much larger than the rest of the auto industry combined though. Humanoid robots? Ain’t nobody made the business case for that. It is pure vibes.

Tesla is valued at more than the auto industry because they are doing more than the entire auto industry.

Honda is going to come out with a new Civic next year. It's going to look like the old Civic.

Tesla is trying to create self driving taxis to make the rest of the auto industry obsolete.

If you think that can happen, they should be worth more than the rest of the industry.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#237

Post by sschueller »

bhouston wrote: post #43

Tesla is a meme stock in a similar manner to GME. You cannot bet against them even if they have incredibly unsure future prospectives because there are too many believers who will buy any dips.

You can on the betting market bet against Tesla reaching their ever moving goal posts. Those same meme stock holders are so sure that FSD will come by March that they are taking the bets.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#238

Post by _ea1k »

It is sad, but big sedans do not sell well and the X really needed to be replaced with something completely different. There are now several other 3 row EV SUVs competing with it, and even low volume ones (eg, R1S) outsell it easily.

Don't be surprised if something else takes its place as they do need something larger than Y and less expensive than X was.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#239

Post by csomar »

johnfn wrote: post #192
adastra22 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars, maybe. Tesla is valued much larger than the rest of the auto industry combined though. Humanoid robots? Ain’t nobody made the business case for that. It is pure vibes.

Are you seriously saying there is no business case for humanoid robots?

If you think our current tech stack is anywhere close to making humanoid robots viable, then you might as well buy Tesla stock.

Re: Tesla ending Models S and X production

#240

Post by defrost »

laughing_man wrote: post #213
sampton wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't remember when was the last S/X refresh. It's nuts they just let it go stale and shut the factory down.

Musk's goal all along was to get away from boutique production. He wants to sell millions of cheaper cars, not thousands of cars for wealthy people. Not sure it's going to work out. Without some big jumps in battery tech, EVs are going to be difficult to sell without subsidies.

And yet Chinese EV's are flying out of their factories, well, a few are - most are self driving out to the shipping yards.

This despite the 2025 support by the Chinese state for the Chines EV industry now being almost nothing.

  By contrast, defenders of China could point out that the data show that subsidies as a percentage of total sales have declined substantially, from over 40% in the early years to only 11.5% in 2023, which reflects a pattern in line with heavier support for infant industries, then a gradual reduction as they mature.

    In addition, they could note that the average support per vehicle has fallen from $13,860 in 2018 to just under $4,600 in 2023, which is less than the $7,500 credit that goes to buyers of qualifying vehicles as part of the U.S.’s Inflation Reduction Act.
Old source: https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinese-ev-dil...

but the arc of less subsidies is clear.

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