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Amazon cuts 16k jobs

reuters.com

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Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#401

Post by no_wizard »

bwestergard wrote: post #377
medvezhenok wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly would that evidence look like, for you? It definitely increases some types of productivity (Opus one-shot a visualization that would have likely taken me at least a day to write before, for work) - although I would have never written this visualization before LLMs (because the effort was not worth it). So I guess it's Jevons Paradox in action somewhat. In order to observe the productivity increases you n…

"What exactly would that evidence look like, for you?" https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MFPPBS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB Productivity is by definition real output (usually inflation adjusted dollars) per unit of input. That could be per hour worked, or per representative unit of capital + labor mix. I would accept an increase in the slope of either of these lines as evidence of a net productivity in…

There are two sides to this that I see:

First, I'd expect the trajectory of any new technology that purports to be the next big revolution in computing to follow a distribution pattern of that similar to the expansive use of desktop computing and productivity increases, such as the 1995-2005 period[0]. There has not been any indication of such an increase since 2022[1] or 2023[2]. Even the most generous estimation, which Anthropic itself estimated in 2025 the following

>Extrapolating these estimates out suggests current-generation AI models could increase US labor productivity growth by 1.8% annually over the next decade[3]

Which not only assumes the best case scenarios, but would fail to eclipse the height of the computer adoption in productivity gains over a similar period, 1995-2005 with around 2-2.5% annual gain.

Second is cost. The actual cost of these tools is multiples more expensive than it was to adopt computing en masse, especially since 1995. So any increase in productivity they are having is not driving overall costs down relative to the gains, in large part because you aren't seeing any substantial YoY productivity growth after adopting these AI tools. Computing had a different trend, as not only did it get cheaper over time, the relative cost was outweighed by the YoY increase of productivity.

[0]: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/110th-congress-2007-...

[1]: First year where mass market LLM tools started to show up, particularly in the software field (in fact, GitHub Copilot launched in 2021, for instance)

[2]: First year where ChatGPT 4 showed up and really blew up the awareness of LLMs

[3]: https://www.anthropic.com/research/estimating-productivity-g...

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#402

Post by Gibbon1 »

echelon wrote: post #309
darth_avocado wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since the HN reaction to layoffs almost always is about blaming H1B, here’s a few more things the headline misses: 1. Cuts were global 2. Cuts in US also include H1B employees 3. 16000 roles are corporate roles, not just tech related, H1B program is not generally utilized for those roles 4. Expansion in India is not just tech. Amazon is a big retailer in India. Understandably if you’re seeing revenue growth in India,…

Shouldn't we all want H1B rather than offshoring? That keeps the facilities here, the local employment options here, the growth here, the tax base here... We should want more smart people moving to this country. More business creation, more capital, more labor, more output. Immigration is total economic growth for America, non zero-sum. Offshoring is not only economic loss, but second order loss: we lose the capacity…

> Shouldn't we all want H1B rather than offshoring?

That's my opinion.

However there are issues with who's sucking the tit. If you bring in a bunch of people from outside instead of hiring locals that's not a win for the locals. On the other hand whats the difference for someone in San Francisco if Apple hires a guy from India vs New Jersey? Not much.

And H1B visa's can be low grade indentured servitude.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#403

Post by [deleted] »

gamegoblin wrote: post #359
tclancy wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is AI slop as the knee jerk comments next to me suggest, it’s goin to be a hell of a surprise if he gets elected this year! https://www.nleeplumb.com/about

While reading the text, my mental AI alarm bells were going off, sent it all to pangram.com and it flags both the layoff post and his campaign website text as being 100% AI generated

[deleted]

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#404

Post by stuaxo »

yojat661 wrote: post #205
kburman wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I realize it’s easy to pattern-match this news to 'hiring in India vs. firing in US' given the current climate, but having worked at Amazon India for 4 years, I can tell you the cuts happen there too. Amazon has a history of annual restructuring that hits every region. It isn't necessarily a direct relocation strategy so much as their standard operational churn. The 'efficiency' cuts are happening globally, India inc…

The parent comment is obviously cherry picking news and trying to push an agenda. Uk investment: https://www.aboutamazon.co.uk/news/job-creation-and-investme... Us investment: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-invest-50-billion-ai

The US investment link is broken, and most of the UK jobs are in "fullfillment", some of the least fullfilling jobs - piss bottles all round.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#405

Post by jandrese »

echelon wrote: post #382
jandrese wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> H1-B is stupid on its face. You're seriously telling me that this software engineering job absolutely cannot be filled by an American? That doesn't pass the laugh test. The job description is a senior full stack product developer fluent in all programming languages and frameworks. Salary is $70,000/year. Somehow they can never find Americans to fill those jobs. They'll go on Linkedin complaining that Americans are…

Our competitors in another country will have no problem building those products. Then they'll be sold in America to American consumers. Then our industry deflates, because we can't compete on cost or labor scale / innovation. If we put up tariffs, we get a short respite. But now our goods don't sell as well overseas in the face of competition. Our industries still shrink. Eventually they become domestically uncompeti…

Turns out this is a difficult problem with no one good solution. Subjecting labor to a race to the bottom is probably the most efficient individual system from a capitalist standpoint, but it destroys itself just as much as your customers can no longer afford to buy most of the products made. The selfish strategy ruins the entire system if everybody does it.

Capitalism and Communism have opposite problems. Communism attempts to manage the markets from a top down approach, making it relatively easy to handle systemic problems but almost impossible to optimize for efficiency because there is far too much information that doesn't make it to the top. Capitalism by contrast pushes the decisions down to where the information is, allowing for excellent efficiency but leaving it blind to systemic problems.

So the best solution is some kind of meet in the middle approach that is complex and ugly and fosters continual arguments over where lines should be drawn.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#406

Post by caminante »

_vqpz wrote: post #351
nielsbot wrote: post #172

I like to think about this story from years ago when Nintendo wasn't doing so well and there was talk of layoffs "Nintendo CEO’s refusal to layoff staff goes viral following industry-wide cuts" https://www.nme.com/news/gaming-news/nintendo-ceos-refusal-t... I realize these companies aren't identical, but interesting to compare approaches. I also expect Amazon hires and fires more easily instead of growing more slowly…

Bear in mind Nintendo has ~0.005% of the employees Amazon does

It's also ... Nintendo's share price was stagnant, Japanese business culture...

FWIW, 8,000 (nintendo) / 1,600,000 (Amazon) is 0.005, so 0.5%.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#407

Post by rich_sasha »

didibus wrote: post #345
rich_sasha wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US real GDP is racing ahead: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 . Inflation is fine, even if you don't fully believe the official numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA . Unemployment is increasing but below long term mean: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE . Interest rates are at a reasonably business-friendly level. This is all the USofA. Elsewhere, China is allegedly also printing…

> So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do Here's the explaining: - Unemployment has increased. - Long-Term unemployment has increased. - Number of gig workers is at an all time high. - Layoffs have continued. - Personal household dept is at an all time high. - Polls show most people have financial anxiety and feel squeezed. - Inflation is not under control. - Buy now pay later usage is up as mu…

I'd say these are symptoms (and I'm not denying them) rather than causes. My point is that it's hard to find hard data that would say the economy is doing poorly. Even unemployment, which is your top line, seems... fine?

I just don't understand where the squeeze is coming from. Either companies figured out how to do more with less people, or they started the cycle with too many people, or they don't know what they are doing. Undoubtedly they are laying people off, especially in tech. But I he symptoms you list don't explain it to me.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#408

Post by GrinningFool »

watwut wrote: post #229
otikik wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“It was Bill, but he got laid off”. It doesn’t need to be confusing.

That is not an answer to the "who is responsible for X now" question. Laid off Bill is not responsible for X now. Also, it is not useful answer at all, it is an uncooperative answer. Whoever is asking about the responsible person is trying to work. They have legitimate question about who they should contact about X, sending them to someone who does not work there is less then useless.

But it doesn't change that Bill was the person who was responsible, and now is gone. So what exactly are they supposed to say? In the context of the GP's post, that seems to be the point - there is no longer anybody there who is responsible for X anymore.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#409

Post by repstosb »

mc32 wrote: post #373
Analemma_ wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could use this exact argument to say nobody should ever have children-- children also raise inflation, home prices, etc. And the majority of your property taxes go specifically towards programs which would be unneeded if nobody had any children. The fact that naive anti-immigration arguments can be copy-pasted unchanged into arguments against having children is a sign that maybe those arguments are stupid. To und…

Children are future taxpayers the majority with parents who were not a tax burden --net positive tax contribution. People without Children benefit from the taxes paid by the children of people who rear children -i.e. people without children aren't "cashing out" their tax contributed retirement --that contribution went to other retirees.

And citizens benefit from the taxes paid by non-citizen immigrants, whether documented or undocumented. Not just income and payroll taxes that might be dodged by under-the-table arrangements, but sales taxes, property taxes (perhaps paid indirectly via rent to a taxpaying landlord), the consumer share (nearly 100%) of tariffs, etc. And much of that tax base is spent on benefits and services that are not accessible to taxpaying non-citizens.

So from that standpoint, immigrants are a /better/ economic deal for the public than children are. At the end of the day, though, it shouldn't matter where people were born if they're contributing to society, and the grandparent post is 100% correct that the whole debate is stupid.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#410

Post by bluecheese452 »

echelon wrote: post #382
jandrese wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> H1-B is stupid on its face. You're seriously telling me that this software engineering job absolutely cannot be filled by an American? That doesn't pass the laugh test. The job description is a senior full stack product developer fluent in all programming languages and frameworks. Salary is $70,000/year. Somehow they can never find Americans to fill those jobs. They'll go on Linkedin complaining that Americans are…

Our competitors in another country will have no problem building those products. Then they'll be sold in America to American consumers. Then our industry deflates, because we can't compete on cost or labor scale / innovation. If we put up tariffs, we get a short respite. But now our goods don't sell as well overseas in the face of competition. Our industries still shrink. Eventually they become domestically uncompeti…

If my job is shipped to India today why would I care that twenty years later the boss is Indian instead of American?
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