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Amazon cuts 16k jobs

reuters.com

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Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#341

Post by [deleted] »

rich_sasha wrote: post #68
paxys wrote: post #4

Every large company is updating its standard layoffs announcement press release from "economic headwinds" to "AI".

Excuse is only half the story. I don't fully understand why they are doing it though. Companies hire people to make money, not as an act of social conformance. Global economy doesn't look that terrible. Nor is the AI story that believable. Is it just the CEO Zeitgeist? All the guys at Aspen talking about what fraction they cut, just as 5 years ago they bragged how bloated their org chart is? TBH the "ZIRP overhiring"…

[deleted]

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#342

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

rich_sasha wrote: post #317
nicoburns wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Global economy doesn't look that terrible. It doesn't? I was born in the 90s (so admittedly 2008 was before I started working), but the economy is looking the worst it's been in my lifetime to me.

US real GDP is racing ahead: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 . Inflation is fine, even if you don't fully believe the official numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA . Unemployment is increasing but below long term mean: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE . Interest rates are at a reasonably business-friendly level. This is all the USofA. Elsewhere, China is allegedly also printing…

It always takes 6 to 12 months for the graphs to match the reality on the ground. Because that's how long it takes most people to run out of money and credit.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#343

Post by no_wizard »

rich_sasha wrote: post #317
nicoburns wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Global economy doesn't look that terrible. It doesn't? I was born in the 90s (so admittedly 2008 was before I started working), but the economy is looking the worst it's been in my lifetime to me.

US real GDP is racing ahead: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 . Inflation is fine, even if you don't fully believe the official numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA . Unemployment is increasing but below long term mean: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE . Interest rates are at a reasonably business-friendly level. This is all the USofA. Elsewhere, China is allegedly also printing…

I'm going to set aside GDP for a moment, which is hardly the full story but instead I want to zoom in on inflation.

The Federal Reserve of St. Louis is using the CPI numbers, as most government agencies do. I would contend those numbers in and of themselves lie. The ALICE index, which is based on more comprehensive data[0][1] and closer to what CPI used to represent before the major adjustments in the 1990s, tells a different story[2]

Inflation against the ALICE index is much higher than the 3% reported in by the Federal Reserve, running at a stark 5.9% YoY change. This honestly lines up much closer to the reality I see in my day to day life than the CPI numbers reported by the Federal Reserve do.

[0]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/methodology

[1]: I recommend downloading the PDF here: https://www.unitedforalice.org/Attachments/Methodology/ALICE...

[1]: https://www.unitedforalice.org/essentials-index

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#344

Post by scottLobster »

sejje wrote: post #288
scottLobster wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're accusing people of moving the goalposts on the tariff conversation, the goal posts were doing backflips and jazzercise from the day they were announced. So yeah, the tariffs are still a net negative on the economy, but have been so erratically and poorly implemented that they're not nearly as bad as they could have been. It's like a plastered drunk guy swinging a knife at you. It's a lethal threat, but he's tr…

I agree they've been very erratic. What does that have to do with whether or not our economy tanked as a result? It didn't, the prophecies were FUD, everything he does is bad, blah blah. Trump's a lethal threat that is too incompetent to be lethal? Okay. So quit with the FUD then.

So you'd turn your back on the knife wielding drunk guy and turn on Netflix because he hasn't managed to stab you yet?

FUD stands for fear, uncertainty and doubt. If you didn't feel any of that in the previous year you haven't been paying attention or don't have any serious responsibilities.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#345

Post by didibus »

rich_sasha wrote: post #317
nicoburns wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Global economy doesn't look that terrible. It doesn't? I was born in the 90s (so admittedly 2008 was before I started working), but the economy is looking the worst it's been in my lifetime to me.

US real GDP is racing ahead: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 . Inflation is fine, even if you don't fully believe the official numbers: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA . Unemployment is increasing but below long term mean: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE . Interest rates are at a reasonably business-friendly level. This is all the USofA. Elsewhere, China is allegedly also printing…

> So if you'd claim it's terrible, there's some explaining to do

Here's the explaining:

  - Unemployment has increased.
  - Long-Term unemployment has increased.
  - Number of gig workers is at an all time high.
  - Layoffs have continued.
  - Personal household dept is at an all time high.
  - Polls show most people have financial anxiety and feel squeezed.
  - Inflation is not under control.
  - Buy now pay later usage is up as much as consumer spending is.
  - Income and wealth inequality are near records high.
  - GDP and consumer spending were also seen peaking before the last 5 recessions as well...
We're all talking predictions, I don't think either of us should pretend to know the future, but there are counterpoints and so the data does not all look rosy.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#346

Post by rich_sasha »

culi wrote: post #85
rich_sasha wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excuse is only half the story. I don't fully understand why they are doing it though. Companies hire people to make money, not as an act of social conformance. Global economy doesn't look that terrible. Nor is the AI story that believable. Is it just the CEO Zeitgeist? All the guys at Aspen talking about what fraction they cut, just as 5 years ago they bragged how bloated their org chart is? TBH the "ZIRP overhiring"…

> Companies hire people to make money, not as an act of social conformance. I think you also underestimate how much hiring gives these large companies political leverage. A town can be completely destroyed when one of these companies threatens to move a factory or office

Right - true.

So hiring people is ditching this political leverage. If that was the original driver, what's changes to make it not worth it anymore?

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#347

Post by el_nahual »

tchalla wrote: post #97

Interesting perspective of an L7 who was laid off at Amazon https://xcancel.com/PlumbNick/status/2016500347053773198

Inconsistent jingoistic nationalism.

On one hand, he claims that he "fixed problems that had been sitting untouched because no one else could untangle them." And on the other hand he claims his layoff on "a global labor market with almost no guardrails."

So which is it: did he really work on problems no one else could solve, or was he replaced by cheap foreign labor?

Probably neither. The most likely scenario here is one of two things:

a) Amazon made a mistake by firing him. They laid off someone truly valuable.

b) He wasn't as valuable as he thinks he was. Those problems were not worth paying him a meaningful fraction of a million dollars a year (what an L7 makes at amazon).

What I can guarantee is that he wasn't replaced by a cheap, foreign, plug-and-play replacement.

It all makes sense when you realize the point of his tweet is that he's plugging his run for congress: so yeah, of course he's tapping in to the absolute worst nationalistic sentiment. Shame on him.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#348

Post by jandrese »

jimbokun wrote: post #16
mahmoudhossam wrote: post #5

Alexa, insert David and Victoria Beckham "be honest" meme

What's the real reason for the layoffs?

Might just be management doing that "you can cut the bottom 5-10% of your workforce every 5 years without impacting productivity at all" thing.

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#349

Post by stephencoyner »

tchalla wrote: post #97

Interesting perspective of an L7 who was laid off at Amazon https://xcancel.com/PlumbNick/status/2016500347053773198

I don't see a clean solution here. The price/craft distinction matters - companies competing on price (Amazon retail) have different incentives than those competing on quality and craft (Notion, Linear). If you're in the price business, replacing expensive US labor with cheaper global labor is rational. If you're in the craft business, it usually isn't.

But that framing is incomplete. Amazon isn't just retail - AWS, logistics tech, and AI enablement are craft-heavy. Cutting experienced people in those areas might be short-term thinking dressed up as strategy, not actual optimization. The policy question is where I get stuck. Regulate this, and US companies risk losing ground to foreign competitors who don't follow those rules. Do we want Alibaba as the default American retailer? But do nothing, and experienced workers keep getting squeezed while "efficiency" narratives provide cover.

What's the intervention that doesn't just shift the problem somewhere else?

Re: Amazon cuts 16k jobs

#350

Post by oytis »

greenavocado wrote: post #290
ra7 wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want American companies to not outsource any jobs AND have full foreign market access, get ready to get market access revoked from places like India. They’ll just incentivize their local companies to compete, and Amazon has plenty of local competition there already. Amazon themselves have experienced in the past how heavy-handed Indian regulators can be. It’s not a zero-sum game anymore. You cannot have only o…

> You cannot have only one side (US companies) capture 100% of the value. This is the value prop of the US military

It was, at least it worked for Europe, but Trump has seemingly managed to ruin that too.
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