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Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

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21–30 of 32 posts

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#21
post #19

Relevant, I would definitely be sleeping uneasy if I was at “Open”AI. Some insist that Chinese models are a few generations behind, how many probably depends more on patriotism rather than fact. Those people typically also insist that Chinese models are just distillations and often neglect to see how many of these companies contribute to the theory of designing efficient and capable models. It is somehow thought that…

Thing is, China has the same problems as OAI. Just looks at these two startups, they are one of the first LLM corpos where we have some actual numbers from accounting and not BS from marketing department or Sam's xitter. The situation looks dire. https://imgshare.cc/wzw6jzm5

> China has the same problems as OAI

PRC pureplay AI only companies has same problems as openAI, that's not the same as huge tech companies like Baidu or Alibaba or Tencent (i.e. Google/Microsoft tier) who can afford to lose money on AI. And ultimately they are also not sinking 100s of billions in capex, they can't even if they tried due to sanctions. Their financial exposure is magnitude less, i.e. it matters if you're losing 500m a year vs 5 billion per year especially as systemic economic contagion risk - PRC and US bubble sizes as % of economy not the same.

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#22

Relevant, I would definitely be sleeping uneasy if I was at “Open”AI. Some insist that Chinese models are a few generations behind, how many probably depends more on patriotism rather than fact. Those people typically also insist that Chinese models are just distillations and often neglect to see how many of these companies contribute to the theory of designing efficient and capable models. It is somehow thought that…

A few months ago we were hearing that it was game over because of Deepseek. Today it has a mind share close to zero on the developed world. Being 90% as good (which Deepseek isn't) doesn't cut it...

US models might not be "destined" to stay in the lead, but I see no reason to believe that won't at the moment.

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#23
post #20
post #4

As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?

Shorting OIA, or really any big company, is like trying to stop a train which is on fire by standing in front of it. Yes, it is on fire and won't last long, but it will still crush any small player trying to overpower whole corrupt system.

You don't need to stand in front of a train to bet on a trainwreck.

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#25
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting OIA, or really any big company, is like trying to stop a train which is on fire by standing in front of it. Yes, it is on fire and won't last long, but it will still crush any small player trying to overpower whole corrupt system.

You don't need to stand in front of a train to bet on a trainwreck.

But that isn't the analogy, is it?

Betting on the trainwreck is quite easy, you got nothing to lose in the analogy, while shorting companies will cost you something, most times a lot if the bet has the wrong timing.

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#26
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to stand in front of a train to bet on a trainwreck.

But that isn't the analogy, is it? Betting on the trainwreck is quite easy, you got nothing to lose in the analogy, while shorting companies will cost you something, most times a lot if the bet has the wrong timing.

Betting usually has a cost.

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#27
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that isn't the analogy, is it? Betting on the trainwreck is quite easy, you got nothing to lose in the analogy, while shorting companies will cost you something, most times a lot if the bet has the wrong timing.

Betting usually has a cost.

A fixed one, not one that can suffer snowballing increase in case your bet is wrong.

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#28
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Betting usually has a cost.

A fixed one, not one that can suffer snowballing increase in case your bet is wrong.

Not necessarily. Spread betting doesn't work like that for instance. And shorting a stock can be structured in a way that caps your losses as well. It's just a matter of cost vs potential gains.

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#29
post #4

As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?

Prediction markets? https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap

Im not sure I like that market in particular, but probably polymarket is indeed the best one… assuming the market will resolve fairly

Re: Is OpenAI Dead Yet?

#30
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AFAIK in some space they're still the best models on offer.

The way I see it, this was the case until a few months ago. Today, Opus 4.5 is just as good or better than 5.2 Pro at tackling hard questions and coding, Gemini beats the free models, and Kimi K2/K2.5 is the better writer/editor.

In my own testing these models sill have a different flavor to them

- Opus 4.5 for software development. Works faster, and tends to write cleaner code.

- GPT 5.2 xHigh for mathematical analysis, and analysis in general (e.g. code review, planning, double checks), it's very meticulous.

- Gemini 3.0 Pro for image understanding, though this one I haven't played around with much.

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