The Adolescence of Technology

> I don't think we have much to worry about in terms of economic disruption. At this point it seems pretty clear that LLMs are having a major impact on how software is built, but for almost every other industry the practical effects are mostly incremental.

You clearly didn't read the post. He is talking about AI that is smarter than any human, not today's LLMs. The fact that powerful AI doesn't exist yet doesn't mean there is nothing to worry about.

>So what can you and I do?

Engage respectfully, Try and see other points of view, Try and express your point of view. I decided some time ago that I would attempt to continue conversations on here to try and at least get people to understand that other points of view could be held by rational people. It has certainly cost me Karma, but I hope there has been a small amount of influence. Quite often people do not change their minds by losing arguments, but by seeing other points of view and then given time to reflect.

>I know in my gut that imagining an ideal outcome won't change what actually happens

You might find that saying what you would like to see doesn't get heard, but you just have to remember that you can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant (if that is not too oblique of a reference)

Talk about what you would like to see, If others would like to see that too, then they might join you.

I think most people working in AI are doing so in good faith and are doing what they think is best. There are plenty of voices telling them how not to it, many of those voices are contradictory. The instances of people saying what to do instead are much fewer.

If you declare that events are inevitable then you have lost. If you characterise Sam Altman as a sociopath playing the long game of hiding in research for years just waiting to pounce on the AI technology that nobody thought was imminent, then you have created a world in you mind where you cannot win. By imagining an adversary without morality it's easy to abdicate the responsibility of changing their mind, you can simply declare it can't be done. Once again choosing inevitability.

Perhaps try and imagine the world you want and just try and push a tiny fraction towards that world. If you are stuck in a seaside cave and the ocean is coming in, instead of pushing the ocean back, look to see if there is an exit at the other end, maybe there isn't one, but at least go looking for it, because if there is, that's how you find it.

Occasionally, I read these types of essays and get awfully depressed. As someone just starting out in the technology field (and I guess white-collar work in general), it feels as if I suddenly have no hope of ever living a fruitful and meaningful life. The means by which I could ever potentially earn a living are slowly destroyed.

I do wonder if others in my age group ever feel the same, if basically everyone under 30 has a general anxiety regarding the future.

The advice I give younger folks is what I wished I’d been taught when I was just starting out myself, and confronting dismal prospects and futures after the 2008 Collapse:

Always consider the justification for the narrative. Dario Amodei has a vested interest in peddling his perspective, as that’s how he gets funding, media interest, publicity, and free advertising. He needs his product to be everything he claims it to be, lest the money supply suddenly dry up. Every startup does this, and while it doesn’t make them wrong, it also doesn’t mean you should take them at their word either.

I’d also say that you’re not alone in this frustration, and it’s not limited to your age demographic. My millennial peers and GenX colleagues share similar concerns about a dismal future, and many point to the same trends that have gradually stripped away our ability to survive or live authentic lives in the name of oligarchy profit motives as causes for our present malaise.

What Dario Amodei can never admit, however, is that he’s wrong; you, and many of us here, can and will acknowledge our faults, but Dario and Sam and Zuck et al have built such a massive confidence game around GenAI being the antithesis to labor that one of them admitting they’re wrong risks destroying the entire game for everyone else - and vaporize the trillions of dollars sunk into this technology “revolution” in the process.

The best cure I’ve found for that sort of depression is simply to do more learning across a wider spectra of topics. There’s a reason you don’t see widespread AI boostering in, say, neuroscience or psychology, outside of the handful of usual grifters and hustlers angling to cash in on the hype: because anyone with knowledge beyond statistical algebra and matrix multiplication can see the limitations of these tools, and knows they cannot displace labor permanently in their current forms. Outside of the “booster bubble”, the concerns we have with AI are less the apocalyptic claims of Mr. Amodei that mass unemployment from AI is just three to six months away (since 2023), and more the rampant misuse and exploitation these systems rely upon and cultivate for profit. Most of us aren’t opposed to having another tool, we’re opposed to perpetually renting this tool indefinitely from oligarchs shoving it down our throats and datacenters hoovering our limited energy and freshwater supplies, instead of being able to utilize it locally in sustainable and sensical ways.

Learning about different topics from different fields helps paint a clearer picture - one that’s admittedly even more bleak in the immediate, but at least arms you with knowledge to effect change for the better going forward.

There’s nothing for us. The best our generation can hope for is that the vision these people have of the future, and are spending more money than god trying to create, fails, and the economic consequences end up limited.

The second best thing is getting enough time to build a runway. I have a good job right now (mid 20s), and I’m eating progresso soup for dinner most days to save money for whatever is coming. Pretty much every medium or long term goal abandoned, I just want to have the money to hit some bucket list items if the collapse comes.

Meanwhile, I’ll keep on reading the daily article from one of the many people with few gray hairs, a retro blog and a small fortune from the dotcom era telling me this is the best time ever, actually. We’ll see.