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From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

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Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#101

Post by somenameforme »

energy123 wrote: post #43
jimbohn wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, or even just protectionism. Most economists I've heard say that protectionism doesn't work, but I feel like China being quiet and protectionist in the infancy of its key industries was like the move of the century for them.

Neoclassical economics is quite clear that targeted protectionism is desirable under certain exceptions. As for China, they would be more wealthy without the meddling of their government. There's no reason they couldn't be like Taiwan, but bigger. The Chinese people got to where they are in spite of their anchor.

Median wage in Taiwan is something like $14k, less than many urban areas in China, though obviously higher than the very rural areas in China. [1] It's a Reddit link, but it's using first party government data. I'm linking to it since just linking to a site in Chinese would not be very informative for most.

Huge GDP/capita in certain places is because of outsized industries that don't really translate to the average person. Ireland is another example where it's nearly twice as 'rich' as the US by that same metric, but it's just a nuance of it being an international hub for tax avoidance, not because the Irish are doing especially well.

[1] - https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/1jmhhk1/realistic_s...

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#102

Post by galangalalgol »

viking123 wrote: post #99
pjc50 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone seems to have forgotten the independent French nuclear deterrent. I should probably put an outside bet on the next country to get the Bomb being Poland, maybe by 2050. They've only just started building a civilian reactor, but weapons would make strategic sense for them.

I remember back when Poland was joining NATO, they basically said that we want in NATO or we will build our own nuke. Not sure if Trump understands that he is playing quite a dangerous game in terms of nuclear proliferation because if the US deterrent goes away, the small countries will start thinking about it.

Good analysis out there indicating sweden could beat Poland there. Finland and Germany also on the likely list. Then in the east Japan and sk. The npt is dead. The French government being completely gridlocked with a nonzero chance to go authoritarian itself, along with the us stepping away guarantee this.

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#103

Post by baxtr »

direwolf20 wrote: post #100
baxtr wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s 100/0 and 10/90.

America is 100/0 and China is 90/10. One of them is doing much better, and the difference is apparently explained by the 10.

If you are of the opinion that the people in China are living a better life we can stop the conversation. In that case we don't have any common ground for a fruitful discussion.

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#104

Post by g-unit33 »

aaa_aaa wrote: post #62
g-unit33 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if 90% of the country marks the box against the regime, they’ll still announce a 90% 'landslide' victory. Voting doesn't matter, when you print your own outcome

[flagged]

I was born and raised in Iran with my entire family being there fighting the fight. I'd like to think I'd debated both sides enough to be able to make the argument for both sides. However, the inhumanity and corruption of the Iranian regime will be looked back upon in history with some of the most corrupt/inhumane governments of all time

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#105

Post by somenameforme »

baxtr wrote: post #28
jimbohn wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, or even just protectionism. Most economists I've heard say that protectionism doesn't work, but I feel like China being quiet and protectionist in the infancy of its key industries was like the move of the century for them.

Not sure tbh. China could have been like Japan per capita. Protectionism puts a big cap on economic growth potential.

This is what Japan's GDP/capita [1] looks like. I assume you're around my age because we grew up in a time when Japan was set to become the next economic super-power, and it looked like it might even surpass the US. But sometime around 1995, their economy peaked and they've been in pretty bad shape since then. Their current GDP/capita is about 25% lower (and falling) than it was in 1995. They work as a great argument against people who insist to just always buy the dip. What goes down does not always come back up.

By contrast this [2] is China's GDP/capita which is something really close to a vertical line. But for all the talk about economic systems, I think it's just because of good leadership and a motivated population. There's plenty of capitalist countries that aren't going anywhere, and there's endless examples of hybrid/social economic systems that have also gone nowhere. So I think there have to be explanations outside of the economic system itself.

[1] - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location...

[2] - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location...

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#106

Post by thisislife2 »

pydry wrote: post #70
Braxton1980 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want things to change we need to start going after the source of the governments power, the people that vote for them. T

[flagged]

As someone not from the west, I can relate to your viewpoints. While Iran and Venezuela, for example, may be flawed democracies, the west forgets that those who came to power there did so after a popular uprising and revolution. And just because the west doesn't like the current leaders there (for asserting their sovereignty on economic affairs), I am often bemused by the lack of political understanding of many westerners here who think just because Iranians are disgruntled at their current rulers, they are waiting to welcome the son of a despot ruler who they overthrew once, who has lived most of his life abroad, and urges foreign countries to invade his country so he can be the ruler of Iran again! The same with Venezuela too - however pissed of the Venezuelans are the current government, no Venezuelan is going to welcome the current Nobel peace prize winner, a right-wing politician who plans to privatize the energy resources of her country so her family can get back the "rights" that she believes was "stolen" from her, especially when she too urges foreign countries to invade her country.

I do subscribe to the view that politicians like these, who seek the help of foreign powers to come to power, are definitely traitors to their country. Inviting foreign powers to meddle in your affairs is how civil war erupt and lead to the eventual breakup of a country.

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#107

Post by ben_w »

pjc50 wrote: post #97
viking123 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, wonder why Trump doesn't threaten North Korea? Because they actually have achieved all this, internal internet completely sealed, nuclear weapons and developing ballistic missiles to reach the USA. So actually.. getting the nukes was the right play for them because eventually they would get sold out by China or Russia. Having nukes gets you to shake hands and send love letters to Trump. Frankly Trump sees Europ…

Everyone seems to have forgotten the independent French nuclear deterrent. I should probably put an outside bet on the next country to get the Bomb being Poland, maybe by 2050. They've only just started building a civilian reactor, but weapons would make strategic sense for them.

I would say the next country is likely much sooner than 2050, because 24 years is longer than the timelines for China, for India and Pakistan given when they became independent even assuming they started on that immediately, I think for Israel but it's hard to be sure given the secrecy, South Africa arguably but IIRC they didn't complete it, and obviously the USSR, USA, France, and the UK.

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#108

Post by bjourne »

baxtr wrote: post #77
bjourne wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a look at a plot of China's gdp per year since 1980. A curve can only get so exponential.

Japan was leveled to the ground by 1945. What’s the excuse for not having the same GDP per capita 80 years later? The curve became exponential way too late. And only after they (partially) opened up.

Japan was an industrialized country even before WWII, China was not. Moreover, both Japan and China used protectionism to nurture domestic industries.

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#109

Post by ifwinterco »

ben_w wrote: post #107
pjc50 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone seems to have forgotten the independent French nuclear deterrent. I should probably put an outside bet on the next country to get the Bomb being Poland, maybe by 2050. They've only just started building a civilian reactor, but weapons would make strategic sense for them.

I would say the next country is likely much sooner than 2050, because 24 years is longer than the timelines for China, for India and Pakistan given when they became independent even assuming they started on that immediately, I think for Israel but it's hard to be sure given the secrecy, South Africa arguably but IIRC they didn't complete it, and obviously the USSR, USA, France, and the UK.

Yep at the end of the day, this is 1940s/50s technology. It's complicated but not that complicated

Re: From stealth blackout to whitelisting: Inside the Iranian shutdown

#110

Post by doodlebugging »

Braxton1980 wrote: post #45
navigate8310 wrote: post #23

> To mitigate the costs of its shutdown, the Iranian government has created an internal national internet and appears to be in the process of building a “whitelisting” system to allow certain individuals and services internet access while blocking the rest. If these measures successfully enable an unpopular Iranian government to remain in power, we can expect to see them replicated elsewhere. Another emerging country…

If you want things to change we need to start going after the source of the governments power, the people that vote for them. T

It would be easier if the people who built the tools that will be used for oppression simply disable those tools or turn them on the oppressors.
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