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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#371

Post by agentcoops »

coryrc wrote: post #154
agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

Not that locked out: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/31/160-million-export-controlle...

Yeah, that's the bull case for sure. Chinese firms might not accept training setbacks even given CCP regulations that they dogfood X homegrown chip.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#372

Post by kqr »

seanhunter wrote: post #364
kqr wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Author here. Thanks for the well-reasoned and well-sourced criticism! I'm just a layman. I admit to all misunderstandings and am happy to receive links and words to search for to learn more.

It’s a cool blog post so I’m making those observations from what I hope you will see as a helpful place. It’s been a long time since I was in the industry, and the sources you’re looking at (eg Shreve) are all great. One thing you might want to check out as well is “The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner’s Guide” by Jim Gatherall. I remember really enjoying it back when I worked in Equity Exotics and it was very high…

For sure. I mean it when I say I appreciate the criticism!

Thanks for the book recommendation. It looks like it might clear up several things I found confusing in the process of writing the blog post, but never managed to figure out.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#373

Post by DoctorOetker »

SequoiaHope wrote: post #326
pvab3 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

inference requires a fraction of the power that training does. According to the Villalobos paper, the median date is 2028. At some point we won't be training bigger and bigger models every month. We will run out of additional material to train on, things will continue commodifying, and then the amount of training happening will significantly decrease unless new avenues open for new types of models. But our current LL…

Run out of training data? They’re going to put these things in humanoids (they are weirdly cheap now) and record high resolution video and other sensor data of real world tasks and train huge multimodal Vision Language Action models etc. The world is more than just text. We can never run out of pixels if we point cameras at the real world and move them around. I work in robotics and I don’t think people talking about…

While we may run out of human written text of value, we won't run out of symbolic sequences of tokens: we can trivially start with axioms and do random forward chaining (or random backward chaining from postulates), and then train models on 2-step, 4-step, 8-step, ... correct forward or backward chains.

Nobody talks about it, but ultimately the strongest driver for terrascale compute will be for mathematical breakthroughs in crypography (not bruteforcing keys, but bruteforcing mathematical reasoning).

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#374

Post by MaxBarraclough »

laughing_man wrote: post #330
agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

I suspect major algorithmic breakthroughs would accelerate the demand for GPUs instead of making it fall off, since the cost to apply LLMs would go down.

Sounds like the Jevons paradox. From https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox :

> The proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.

See also Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#375

Post by reflexe »

cake-rusk wrote: post #358
blindriver wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of those customers can afford to cancel their orders. OpenAI, Google and Meta cannot afford to get cheap on GPUs when presumably they believe GAI is around the corner. The first company to achieve GAI will win because at that point all gains will become exponential. All the AI companies are locked in a death loop where they must spend as much money as possible otherwise everything they invested will immediately…

I don't know why you are being downvoted. What you said makes sense to me but I understand I know very little about how companies think. Can someone with a differing point of view elaborate?

No idea why the downvotes, these are valid points. I still don’t fully agree with it:

1. There are alternatives to nvidia: these 3 companies are probably developing their own alternative to NVIDIA, at some point they will switch to their solution or to competitors (for example: google used TPUs to train Gemini 3 [1], with no nvidia GPUs, despite being a pretty large Nvidia customer).

2. The market seems to be consolidating: for example Apple has decided to use Google Gemini for their new Siri [2]. I’m not an export (or future teller), but I think it increases the chance that other companies might follow and get off the AI race.

3. I am sure that OpenAI and related companies would want to sustain these kind of orders, but I am not sure it is possible without more and more funding, and I don’t know if even Sam himself know to estimate how many GPUs they will be able to buy from Nvidia in 2026.

[1] https://x.com/JeffDean/status/1886852442815652188

[2] https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-annou...

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#376

Post by ropable »

fatherwavelet wrote: post #353
ropable wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If China does invade Taiwan, I feel like most people are going to have bigger problems than the Nvidia stock price.

It seems obvious to me this quickly escalates to a US nuclear first strike with the B2-Spirit on China manufacturing infrastructure. It is economic MAD. Or China can wait 20-30 years and the US will no longer care about Taiwan or have the resources to have much presence in the eastern hemisphere. I think the saber rattling over Taiwan is just to get the US to spend themselves further into oblivion in the short term.…

From my perspective, the US is foot-gunning itself into geopolitical irrelevance through the destruction of its soft power and undermining the NATO alliance. For all its many, many faults, the CCP's actions around establishing itself as the Asian regional superpower are patient, strategic and consistent over the long term. They're playing it far too smart to get into a shooting war with the US, and I'm in agreement that they'll probably end up consolidating Taiwan peacefully in a decade or so.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#378

Post by rfinner67 »

Will AI remain like a simple query engine? I think not. AI is already iterative and does so many recalculations at every step and every new piece of data. Large models that know-it-all are being supplemented by more specialized models or models that have special access to private data. Why wouldn't you consult 100 models of a medical opinion or a stock market analysis. The point is, that for the next few years we will likely consume as many "tokens" as are affordably available, depending on the applications need for more computations. NVidia will develop it's other products and will develop edge devices and every type of GPUs, TPUs, etc. Markets climb a wall of worry and investors love greater fools whenever they are available.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#379

Post by utopiah »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #15
utopiah wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then again what won't? Non tech stocks?

Gold stocks, basic materials, MSCI world and emerging market indexes. Look at their prices and see how very smart people are positioning their money.

Isn't it included in "Non tech stocks?"?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#380

Post by utopiah »

mr_toad wrote: post #332
utopiah wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jets, tanks, drones and data centers for intelligence services, even design, are full of electronics but what's the share of those not made in Taiwan?

They’re not cutting edge chips, they’re made all over, including the US, Korea, and China.

So the share is 0%? I have a hard time imagining that but OK, any source I can read on the topic please?
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