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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

entropicthoughts.com

11–20 of 385 posts

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#11
This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump.

My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up.

The counterargument to this is that the "economic lifespan" of an Nvidia GPU is 1-3 years depending on where it's used so there's a case to be made that Nvidia will always have customers coming back for the latest and greatest chips. The problem I have with this argument is that it's simply unsustainable to be spending that much every 2-3 years and we're already seeing this as Google and others are extending their depreciation of GPU's to something like 5-7 years.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#13
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then again what won't? Non tech stocks?

Industrial military complex and government contractors.

Jets, tanks, drones and data centers for intelligence services, even design, are full of electronics but what's the share of those not made in Taiwan?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#14
post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

NVIDIA has been producing Blackwell in Arizona since October. Don't be dramatic.

There would be a supply crunch but a lot of dollars will be shuffled VERY fast to ramp up production.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#15
post #7
post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

But then again what won't? Non tech stocks?

Gold stocks, basic materials, MSCI world and emerging market indexes. Look at their prices and see how very smart people are positioning their money.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#16
Since there's such an interdependence between nvidia and the other companies involed in AI to the point that if one fails they all fail, shouldn't the analysis focus on the weakest link in the AI circle jerk?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#17
post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#20
post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

NVIDIA has been producing Blackwell in Arizona since October. Don't be dramatic. There would be a supply crunch but a lot of dollars will be shuffled VERY fast to ramp up production.

They definitely made at least one wafer in Arizona in October.
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