Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

entropicthoughts.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

251–260 of 385 posts

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#251

Post by dangus »

MrDarcy wrote: post #207
kortilla wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren’t yet because the big providers that paid for all of this GPU capacity aren’t profitable yet. They continually leap frog each other and shift around customers which indicates that the current capacity is already higher than what is required for what people actually pay for.

Google, Amazon, and Microsoft aren’t profitable?

How many business units have Google and Microsoft shut down or ceased investment for being unprofitable?

I hear Meta is having massive VR division layoffs…who could have predicted?

Raw popularity does not guarantee sustainability. See: Vine, WeWork, MoviePass.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#252

Post by throwaway85825 »

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

It's not flat growth that's currently priced in, but continuing high growth. Which is impossible.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#253

Post by [deleted] »

kqr wrote: post #151
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

Fundamental analysis is great! But I have trouble answering concrete questions of probability with it. How do you use fundamental analysis to assign a probability to Nvidia closing under $100 this year, and what probability do you assign to that outcome? I'd love to hear your reasoning around specifics to get better at it.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#254

Post by testdelacc1 »

JakeSc wrote: post #250
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

Agree on looking at the company-behind-the-numbers. Though presumably you're aware of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Shouldn't "slowed down datacenter growth" be baked into the stock price already? If I'm understanding your prediction correctly, you're asserting that the market thinks datacenter spending will continue at this pace indefinitely, and you yourself uniquely believe that to be not true. Right? I wonder…

I saw a $100 bill on the ground. I nearly picked it up before I stopped myself. I realised that if it was a genuine currency note, the Efficient Market would have picked it up already.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#255

Post by bigyabai »

stingraycharles wrote: post #240
iLoveOncall wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

Exactly, the current spend on LLMs is based on extremely high expectations and the vendors operating at a loss. It’s very reasonable to assume that those expectations will not be met, and spending will slow down as well. Nvidia’s valuation is based on the current trend continuing and even increasing, which I consider unlikely in the long term.

> Nvidia’s valuation is based on the current trend continuing

People said this back when Folding@Home was dominated by Team Green years ago. Then again when GPUs sold out for the cryptocurrency boom, and now again that Nvidia is addressing the LLM demand.

Nvidia's valuation is backstopped by the fact that Russia, Ukraine, China and the United States are all tripping over themselves for the chance to deploy it operationally. If the world goes to war (which is an unfortunate likelihood) then Nvidia will be the only trillion-dollar defense empire since the DoD's Last Supper.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#256

Post by matthewdgreen »

JakeSc wrote: post #250
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

Agree on looking at the company-behind-the-numbers. Though presumably you're aware of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Shouldn't "slowed down datacenter growth" be baked into the stock price already? If I'm understanding your prediction correctly, you're asserting that the market thinks datacenter spending will continue at this pace indefinitely, and you yourself uniquely believe that to be not true. Right? I wonder…

The EMH does not mean that markets are free of over-investment and asset bubbles, followed by crashes.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#257

Post by lancekey »

pixl97 wrote: post #194
fooker wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll be so happy to buy a EOL H100! But no, there’s none to be found, it is a 4 year, two generations old machine at this point and you can’t buy one used at a rate cheaper than new.

Well demand is so high currently that it's likely this cycle doesn't exist yet for fast cards. For servers I've seen where the slightly used equipment is sold in bulk to a bidder and they may have a single large client buy all of it. Then around the time the second cycle comes around it's split up in lots and a bunch ends up at places like ebay

Yea looking at 60 day moving average on computeprices.com H100 have actually gone UP in cost recently, at least to rent.

A lot of demand out there for sure.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#258

Post by matthewdgreen »

bigyabai wrote: post #255
stingraycharles wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, the current spend on LLMs is based on extremely high expectations and the vendors operating at a loss. It’s very reasonable to assume that those expectations will not be met, and spending will slow down as well. Nvidia’s valuation is based on the current trend continuing and even increasing, which I consider unlikely in the long term.

> Nvidia’s valuation is based on the current trend continuing People said this back when Folding@Home was dominated by Team Green years ago. Then again when GPUs sold out for the cryptocurrency boom, and now again that Nvidia is addressing the LLM demand. Nvidia's valuation is backstopped by the fact that Russia, Ukraine, China and the United States are all tripping over themselves for the chance to deploy it operati…

China is restricting purchases of H200s. The strong likelihood is that they're doing this to promote their own domestic competitors. It may take a few years for those chips to catch up and enter full production, but it's hard to envision any "trillion dollar" Nvidia defense empire once that happens.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#259

Post by tuckerman »

aswegs8 wrote: post #162
fooker wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll be so happy to buy a EOL H100! But no, there’s none to be found, it is a 4 year, two generations old machine at this point and you can’t buy one used at a rate cheaper than new.

Not sure why this "GPUs obsolete after 3 years" gets thrown around all the time. Sounds completely nonsensical.

I agree that there is hyperbole thrown around a lot here and its possible to still use some hardware for a long time or to sell it and recover some cost but my experience in planning compute at large companies is that spending money on hardware and upgrading can often result in saving money long term.

Even assuming your compute demands stay fixed, its possible that a future generation of accelerator will be sufficiently more power/cooling efficient for your workload that it is a positive return on investment to upgrade, more so when you take into account you can start depreciating them again.

If your compute demands aren't fixed you have to work around limited floor space/electricity/cooling capacity/network capacity/backup generators/etc and so moving to the next generation is required to meet demand without extremely expensive (and often slow) infrastructure projects.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#260

Post by iancmceachern »

lazide wrote: post #85
wordpad wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your competitor refreshes their cards and you dont, they will win on margin. You kind of have to.

Not necessarily if you count capital costs vs operating costs/margins. Replacing cars every 3 years vs a couple % in efficiency is not an obvious trade off. Especially if you can do it in 5 years instead of 3.

You highlight the exact dilemma.

Company A has taxis that are 5 percent less efficient and for the reasons you stated doesn't want to upgrade.

Company B just bought new taxis, and they are undercutting company A by 5 percent while paying their drivers the same.

Company A is no longer competitive.

Post reply on HN