Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

entropicthoughts.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 385 posts

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#101

Post by legitster »

mnky9800n wrote: post #53
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

From an accounting standpoint, it probably makes sense to have their depreciation be 3 years. But yeah, my understanding is that either they have long service lives, or the customers sell them back to the distributor so they can buy the latest and greatest. (The distributor would sell them as refurbished)

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#102

Post by mythical_39 »

r_lee wrote: post #79

They're enjoying a massive demand for GPUs due to AI blowing up, at a time when there isn't much competition, yet the technology is already pleateauing, with similar offerings from AMD, not to mention proven training & inference chips from Google & AWS, plus the Chinese national strategy of prioritizing domestic chips The only way the stock could remain at its current price or grow (which is why you'd hold it) is if…

or couldn't use a LLM to help port your CUDA code to "new framework", i.e. software is no longer a lock-in....

assuming LLM coding agents are good, but if they aren't any good, then what is the value of the CUDA code?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#103

Post by infecto »

Ronsenshi wrote: post #89
baxtr wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon. However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute. AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

What if its penetration ends up being on the same level as modern crypto? Average person doesn't seem to particularly care about meme coins or bitcoin - it is not being actively used in day to day setting, there's no signs of this status improving. Doesn't mean that crypto is not being used, of course. Plenty of people do use things like USDT, gamble on bitcoin or try to scam people with new meme coins, but this is f…

I have still been unable to see how folks connect AI to Crypto. Crypto never connected with real use cases. There are some edge cases and people do use it but there is not a core use.

AI is different and businesses are already using it a lot. Of course there is hype, it’s not doing all the things the talking heads said but it does not mean immense value is not being generated.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#104

Post by philwelch »

mikkupikku wrote: post #62
iancmceachern wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

If there was a new taxi every other year that could handle twice as many fares, they might. That’s not how taxis work but that is how chips work.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#105

Post by denimnerd42 »

mnky9800n wrote: post #53
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

1-3 is too short but they aren’t making new A100s, theres 8 in a server and when one goes bad what do you do? you wont be able to renew a support contract. if you wanna diy you eventually you have to start consolidating pick and pulls. maybe the vendors will buy them back from people who want to upgrade and resell them. this is the issue we are seeing with A100s and we are trying to see what our vendor will offer for support.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#106

Post by zozbot234 »

galaxyLogic wrote: post #100
Ekaros wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.

I wonder, is the quality of AI answers going up over time or not? Last weekend I spent a lot of time with Preplexity trying to understand why my SeqTrack device didn't do what I wanted it to do and seems Perplexity had a wrong idea of how the buttons on the device are laid out, so it gave me wrong or confusing answers. I spent literally hours trying to feed it different prompts to get an answer that would solve my pr…

If the AI hasn't specifically learned about SeqTracks as part of its training it's not going to give you useful answers. AI is not a crystal ball.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#107

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

visarga wrote: post #46
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #36

Worth noting that the implied volatility extracted here is largely a function of how far OTM the strike is relative to current spot, not some market-specific view on $100. If NVDA were trading at $250 today, the options chain would reprice and you'd extract similar vol for whatever strike was ~45% below. The analysis answers "what's the probability of a near-halving from here" more than "what's special about $100." S…

this is gpt, right?

There are grammatical mistakes and abbreviations, big tells that it's NOT ChatGPT.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#108

Post by eagerpace »

rbtprograms wrote: post #64
eagerpace wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the beauty of Polymarket. Then bet on it. There are so many more outcomes possible to this conflict than what you see reported in the media. Don't be so reductive.

[flagged]

Im not recommending it, but the subject here (shorting the most valuable company on earth) is pretty degen to begin with.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#109

Post by MuffinFlavored »

visarga wrote: post #46
MuffinFlavored wrote: post #36

Worth noting that the implied volatility extracted here is largely a function of how far OTM the strike is relative to current spot, not some market-specific view on $100. If NVDA were trading at $250 today, the options chain would reprice and you'd extract similar vol for whatever strike was ~45% below. The analysis answers "what's the probability of a near-halving from here" more than "what's special about $100." S…

this is gpt, right?

I had a conversation (prompts) with Claude about this article because I didn't feel I could as succinctly describe my point alone.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#110

Post by AnotherGoodName »

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I'll also point out there were insane takes a few years ago before nVidia's run up based on similar technical analysis and very limited scope fundamental analysis.

Technical analysis fails completely when there's an underlying shift that moves the line. You can't look at the past and say "nvidia is clearly overvalued at $10 because it was $3 for years earlier" when they suddenly and repeatedly 10x earnings over many quarters.

I couldn't get through to the idiots on reddit.com/r/stocks about this when there was non-stop negativity on nvidia based on technical analysis and very narrow scoped fundamental analysis. They showed a 12x gain in quarterly earnings at the time but the PE (which looks on past quarters only) was 260x due to this sudden change in earnings and pretty much all of reddit couldn't get past this.

I did well on this yet there were endless posts of "Nvidia is the easiest short ever" when it was ~$40 pre-split.

Post reply on HN