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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#51

Post by baxtr »

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon.

However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute.

AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#52

Post by blackoil »

georgeburdell wrote: post #24
bpodgursky wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA has been producing Blackwell in Arizona since October. Don't be dramatic. There would be a supply crunch but a lot of dollars will be shuffled VERY fast to ramp up production.

Packaging? Assembling onto boards?

Can outsource to China. Only partial /s

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#53

Post by mnky9800n »

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#55

Post by iancmceachern »

mnky9800n wrote: post #53
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now.

It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#58

Post by nospice »

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down.

Their stock trajectory started with one boom (cryptocurrencies) and then seamlessly progressed to another (AI). You're basically looking at a decade of "number goes up". So yeah, it will probably come down eventually (or the inflation will catch up), but it's a poor argument for betting against them right now.

Meanwhile, the investors who were "wrong" anticipating a cryptocurrency revolution and who bought NVDA have not much to complain about today.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#59

Post by marricks »

baxtr wrote: post #51
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon. However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute. AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

> I no AI fanboy at all.

While thinking computers will replace human brains soon is rabid fanaticism this statement...

> AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did.

Also displays a healthy amount of fanaticism.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#60

Post by bob1029 »

iancmceachern wrote: post #55
mnky9800n wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

Margins are typically not so razor thin that you cannot operate with technology from one generation ago. 15 vs 17 mpg is going to add up over time, but for a taxi company it's probably not a lethal situation to be in.
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