Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#21

Post by dsr_ » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:49 PM UTC

NewCzech wrote: post #6

He doesn't really address his own question. He's answering the question "How should options be priced?" Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected. Whether Nvidia specifically takes a big dive depends much more on whether they continue to meet growth estimates than general volatility. If they miss earnings estimates in a meani…

> Sure, it's possible for a big crash in Nvidia just due to volatility. But in that case, the market as a whole would likely be affected.

Other way around: if NVidia sinks, it likely takes a bunch of dependent companies with it, because the likely causes of NVidia sinking all tell us that there was indeed an AI bubble and it is popping.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#22

Post by KeplerBoy » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:51 PM UTC

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

Also there's no way Nvidia's market share isn't shrinking. Especially in inference.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#23

Post by eagerpace » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:52 PM UTC

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

Going to zero is one potential outcome. Equally plausible is it goes up 10% in a relatively quick battle or diplomatic outcome which ends the geopolitical uncertainty.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#24

Post by georgeburdell » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:55 PM UTC

bpodgursky wrote: post #14

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

NVIDIA has been producing Blackwell in Arizona since October. Don't be dramatic. There would be a supply crunch but a lot of dollars will be shuffled VERY fast to ramp up production.

Packaging? Assembling onto boards?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#25

Post by immibis » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:56 PM UTC

It's easy to predict that a bubble will pop, but there's a variance in the timing of approximately half a human lifetime, and if you don't guess that correctly, you throw away yours.

Everything that can't go on forever will eventually stop. But when?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#26

Post by mklyachman » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:56 PM UTC

koolba wrote: post #5

> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026. Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st?

Not really. American put options will pay differently for 95 dollars vs 99 dollars, while this contract settles to 1 either which way.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#27

Post by immibis » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:56 PM UTC

utopiah wrote: post #7

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

But then again what won't? Non tech stocks?

The whole economy will crash. Probably won't be due to China invading Taiwan though. More likely because the president decided to delete their country's world reserve currency status (which is another word for a trade deficit).

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#28

Post by amelius » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:58 PM UTC

koolba wrote: post #5

> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026. Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st?

No because if it goes to $99.99, you don't win much. With a prediction contest it is either you win or you lose.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#29

Post by cjbgkagh » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC

khalic wrote: post #17

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

I think Taiwanese elites can be bought, they say they can’t but I think that’s just part of the bargaining for a higher price. The overtures towards a costly and destructive invasion is Chinas attempt at lowering that price. As is the strategy of building up an indigenous chip manufacturing industry. The aggressive rhetoric from China has the added benefit of keeping the US on a self sabotaging aggressive posture.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#30

Post by whatevaa » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC

khalic wrote: post #17

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

Well, the reality is that most people don't want a bloodbath and it's increasingly looking like external support won't come, so what you gonna do... life is a very complex chess game, gotta play your pieces right.