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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

bloomberg.com

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#221

Post by JumpCrisscross »

DwnVoteHoneyPot wrote: post #173
phyzix5761 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically companies use things like futures, options, and forward contracts to fix or cap their input costs for commodities like oil. This lets them bid on projects without needing to know the future price of oil.

Seriously? What hedge contract you going to use for: 1) Wars, 2) a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), 3)deportations, 4)tariffs, 5) the collapse of USMCA

War-risk insurance is a thing [1]. You could probably buy a business-interruption policy with a line item for revocations. Adding a tariff contingency to customer contracts and/or engaging with vendors on a fixed-price tariff-notwithstanding basis transfers tariff risk.

Deportatios and the collapse of a free-trade zone are not mitigatable. De-leveraging from products that don't have a strong domestic alternative would be the only options there.

All costs. None easy. But all doable. (Not saying it's good business.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_risk_insurance

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#222

Post by tick_tock_tick »

ojbyrne wrote: post #32
mbgerring wrote: post #18

It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…

Actually its easy if you're a multinational. You invest outside the United States.

It sadly doesn't work that well with tariffs in play again anything done outside the USA has to pay and frankly other nation just don't spend like American's.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#223

Post by ashtakeaway »

estearum wrote: post #184
toomuchtodo wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US service economy is ~83% of GDP. Manufacturing only makes up 8% of jobs in the US. Why do I care about US made products? Corporations are offshoring services and knowledge work, manufacturing has been gone for some time and will not be back. If it does come back, it'll be mostly automated, lights out facilities (like China). So! I think it makes a lot of sense to impair the offshoring of these service and knowl…

You want Americans doing non-competitive work in an increasingly competitive global economy? Why?

Reddit is that way ->

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#224

Post by JumpCrisscross »

crims0n wrote: post #215
Ray20 wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They rather hire immigrants than retrain or educate existing workforce The existing workforce is literally the most expensive in the world. And if you add to that its toxicity, what specifically surprises you?

What toxicity is unique to the US labor force?

> What toxicity is unique to the US labor force?

Assuming they're referring to litigation risk. Anecdotally, laying someone off in San Francisco basically means paying a $30k settlement.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#225

Post by kevinhanson »

DwnVoteHoneyPot wrote: post #173
phyzix5761 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically companies use things like futures, options, and forward contracts to fix or cap their input costs for commodities like oil. This lets them bid on projects without needing to know the future price of oil.

Seriously? What hedge contract you going to use for: 1) Wars, 2) a revocation of trucker drivers’ licenses (already happening in Cali), 3)deportations, 4)tariffs, 5) the collapse of USMCA

Oh, that's easy. Just make bets on Polymarket, which totally has no connection to anyone in the adminstration.

https://www.npr.org/2026/01/05/nx-s1-5667232/polymarket-madu...

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#226

Post by bluecalm »

ben_w wrote: post #171
OGEnthusiast wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US needs an offshoring tax. If you want to sell to Americans you also need to hire Americans.

You want to tax foreign businesses that sell stuff to you? Ok, given you can only tax stuff when it passes into your territory what you really have there is called a "tariff", it is paid by… the customer, when they buy the thing. The seller has an entire planet to sell to. The US has about 25% of the money to buy things with, but even then only because we all like your money. Moment we stop liking your money, that pr…

You may not like tariffs but it's not as straightforward as "customer pays". Customers and businesses will part of it. Businesses will most likely give up some part of the margin and customers will pay a higher price.

>>The seller has an entire planet to sell to.

For a lot of goods US is responsible for 50% of profits. It was for me for a long time when I was selling software. Quick googling suggests some EU automakers make close to 50% of their profits in US as well.

US is the premium market everyone wants to sell to. There is nowhere else like that, especially for high margin goods.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#227

Post by tick_tock_tick »

trgn wrote: post #170
garbawarb wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes the US a more compelling place for foreign capital to invest in talent though.

Like your optimism

I mean that's a big part of why so many people want the USA dollar to go even lower. The administration has been very explicit that they want a cheaper dollar but unlike a lot of their other polices that goal has a lot of support among economists.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#228

Post by lesuorac »

ElevenLathe wrote: post #209
phyzix5761 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically companies use things like futures, options, and forward contracts to fix or cap their input costs for commodities like oil. This lets them bid on projects without needing to know the future price of oil.

Even if you can find someone to write you a weird, bespoke (and therefore expensive) derivative to hedge against the Trump DoT revoking thousands of CDLs, you've still only succeeded in moving all these calculations and risks to that counterparty. Somebody somewhere still has to have the headache of pricing this risk.

The insurance company can also just go bankrupt if they priced it incorrectly and then your hedge is worthless.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#230

Post by JumpCrisscross »

charliebwrites wrote: post #4

My hot take: We’re already in a recession. We just use AI to justify doing all the same recession behaviors while making it sound like innovation - not hiring this year > AI is making us productive! - no wage growth > AI means we don’t need to raise salaries - layoffs > with AI we can do more with less people - spending less on offsites, work perks etc > we really need that budget for AI - not spending money on that…

> My hot take: We’re already in a recession

Personal-savings rate says we're heading into a recession, but aren't yet in one [1]. Labour-force participation, on the other hand, suggests we may be [2].

Assuming we go into another shutdown at the end of the month, none of this may be clear until well into the autumn.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

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