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US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

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Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#161

Post by CamperBob2 »

ibejoeb wrote: post #118
aldebran wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re misinformed or willingly stupid if you think there are H1 hiring sprees with the last set of changes. H1 hiring has tanked.

This is a real eye-opener. Do you know how to fix how stupid I am? Tell me what's wrong with my analysis. Here's a report: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-lawmakers-scruti... . Is it factually wrong that "In the first half of 2025, Amazon and its cloud-computing unit, AWS, received approval for more than 12,000 H-1B visas, while Microsoft and Meta had more than 5,000 H-1B visa approvals each" and that the…

That's 1H25. How did it compare to 1H24, and for that matter, 2H25?

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#162

Post by giantg2 »

mbgerring wrote: post #18

It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…

The theory makes sense, but it doesn't match with the graphics in the article.

We can see that job openings have been declining since before the 2024 election and that hiring actually increased briefly around the time the tarrifs were implemented. This seems to suggest there are other factors at play, including macro trends.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#163

Post by toomuchtodo »

vlovich123 wrote: post #147
toomuchtodo wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cool, give me as much statute and regulation required to squeeze companies and encourage competition to drive down profits while protecting workers. This system and game is all arbitrary, we can change the rules (of course, with time and effort). If we have to kill some companies to do this, that's acceptable. As someone wise once said, "We may not always succeed. But never will we be accused of lacking the courage t…

Are you going to stop at killing corporations? I can imagine a few people might also try to stop you from this people’s revolution you’re envisioning.

Democratic socialists were just recently democratically elected in NYC and Seattle. Support for unions in the US is at historical record highs [1]. ~2M 55+ people in the US die every year, ~5k per day. ~3M people turn 18 every year and become eligible to vote, young people who only see bleakness ahead. 31% of wealth is held by people over 70 [2]. This is a population dynamics story, old ideas die out, new ideas come in (Planck's principle). I'm confident support for worker vs corporate policies is high, based on all available evidence [3] [4] [5]. Sixty percent of Americans cannot afford a basic quality of life on their income [6], as another data point. So, I'm unsure who is in the "pro capitalism pro corporation" corner to be honest, when you consider the wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of equities.

No harm should come to humans of course, but corporations, entities, and systems are all fair game.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45851620 (citations)

[2] 31% of Wealth Owned by People Over 70 - https://www.apolloacademy.com/31-percent-of-wealth-owned-by-... - December 7th, 2025

[3] The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46079617 - November 2025 (4 comments)

[4] https://www.cato.org/blog/81-say-they-cant-afford-pay-higher... ("A recent survey by the Cato Institute and YouGov paints a troubling picture: 62 percent of Americans aged 18–29 say they hold a “favorable view” of socialism, and 34 percent say the same of communism.")

[5] Why millennials feel hopeless about the economy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46062082 - November 2025 (15 comments)

[6] https://www.lisep.org/mql

(think in systems)

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#164

Post by walthamstow »

Herring wrote: post #127
IncreasePosts wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida has a GDP in line with Australia, or South Korea, or Spain, and with a smaller population. Not exactly what I would call generationally poor. Texas has the same GDP as Italy, but with half the population.

Try comparing life expectancy instead, it's a better metric for how well the population is actually doing. Those two US states have comparatively high inequality and lower life expectancy, suggesting they're burning human capital to fuel GDP and generate billionaires.

I haven't read about it much since the height of the Purdue/Oxycontin scandal but the so-called 'deaths of despair' - suicide, overdose and alcoholic liver disease - are also relatively high in the USA.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#165

Post by jeffbee »

loeg wrote: post #158
jeffbee wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me put it another way: the [20, 25) and [25, 30) age cohorts are larger than any cohort aged 50+ that might have recently aged out. So that "prime age" workforce is still growing.

This could be true, but it isn't obviously true (to me). (I dispute a little bit the idea that there are many new workers in the [25, 30) demo.) There are 37M workers 55+, but only 20M in the 16-24 range: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18b.htm (2024 numbers)

Nobody in either of those cohorts is in the BLS "prime age" group which is [25, 55). The incoming cohorts that are now 15 to 25 are larger than the outgoing cohorts that are 45 to 55.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#166

Post by dilyevsky »

mbgerring wrote: post #18

It makes sense that you wouldn't hire in such an uncertain environment. We have a President using emergency powers to affect sweeping, unpredictable, consequential changes to the economy that can dramatically alter unit economics overnight and completely tank a previously viable business. Within this calendar year, the President's ability to do this may be upended by pending court cases, an election, or both. Followi…

we had a much larger disruption to logistics just a few years ago if you recall =) and hiring really took off then. so i don't think this argument really holds any water

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#167

Post by stackghost »

garbawarb wrote: post #129
trgn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

also, future of USD-value is highly uncertain, dropped 10% last year, likely to drop more if interest rates keep dropping

That makes the US a more compelling place for foreign capital to invest in talent though.

It makes it more attractive for FOREX trading, maybe, but economic instability (which Trump is absolutely fomenting) is anathema to investors.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#168

Post by [deleted] »

estearum wrote: post #132
toomuchtodo wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I do want to pay more to bolster my country's domestic workforce vs subsidizing corporate shareholders and offshore workers, while also having that come out of corporate profits. shrug

You can just buy US-made products... How many American-made garments are in your closet right now? Or is this more of an imaginary preference you're expressing right now?

[deleted]

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#169

Post by kiliantics »

garciasn wrote: post #24
hmmokidk wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Massive wealth redistribution is just another word for Taxes. When we taxed the rich we were happy. It’s literally all we gotta do.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S Federal Receipts as a Percent of GDP measures total government revenue relative to the size of the economy, serving as a standardized way to track the federal tax burden over time. Although the top marginal tax rate in the 1950s indeed exceeded 90%, federal receipts hovered around 17% of GDP; this was nearly identical to current levels, because loopholes and high income…

It's about how the taxes are spent too. If the government cuts welfare and gives handouts and subsidies to special interests, that is not an effective redistribution.

Re: US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

#170

Post by trgn »

garbawarb wrote: post #129
trgn wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

also, future of USD-value is highly uncertain, dropped 10% last year, likely to drop more if interest rates keep dropping

That makes the US a more compelling place for foreign capital to invest in talent though.

Like your optimism
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