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A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

bbc.com

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Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#181

Post by anigbrowl »

tptacek wrote: post #168
anigbrowl wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't have insiders, you're not doing predictions, you're just doing gambling. Non-insiders can't make predictions? I'm not into betting as a hobby but I make minor bets with myself or friends on topics with clear win-loss conditions in areas of politics where I consider myself knowledgeable. I'm pretty good at it since I find it easy to distinguish between results I'd like to see vs what I expect to actually…

They can, they're just not doing anything they couldn't do at a blackjack table.

I don't think you have a real point here, and are just using pejorative language about gambling to suggest one. Your thesis seems to be that only insiders can make valid predictions, which is nonsense.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#182

Post by JasonADrury »

watwut wrote: post #103
p1dda wrote: post #97

From the BBC article: "Insider trading is illegal in the stock market" Not for members of the US Congress.

I think it genuinely does not matter whether it is legal or not. No one will prosecute them. Legal system was berarely capable of prosecuting rich people crimes and generally unwilling to do so. And the capable parts were dismantled last year. It would take years to rebuild them. And even if they do by some miracle, next republican president will issue pardons like Trump did. This sort of activity is illegal only in…

At least in the US, you are highly likely to be prosecuted if you engage in any profitable insider trading. Those patterns get automatically flagged and you will be investigated.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#183

Post by tptacek »

anigbrowl wrote: post #181
tptacek wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can, they're just not doing anything they couldn't do at a blackjack table.

I don't think you have a real point here, and are just using pejorative language about gambling to suggest one. Your thesis seems to be that only insiders can make valid predictions, which is nonsense.

I'm saying that most people --- and functionally all the people who feel victimized by insiders --- on Polymarket are gambling, not predicting. I feel pretty comfortable with how sound that argument is. I agree that there are users of prediction markets who are neither "insiders" (for whatever definition of that you want to use) nor gamblers, but they're participating with the understanding that they're bidding alongside insiders. And they're a tiny cohort.

If it helps, draw a line between "entertainment" and "enterprise", and use whatever term you like for uses on the "entertainment" side of the line. Either way: it has stark implications for the notion of insider impropriety.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#184

Post by urxvtcd »

tptacek wrote: post #167
urxvtcd wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How isn’t a knowledgeable person incentivized to find vulnerabilities but not disclose them?

I don't understand your question, sorry.

Yeah, sorry for not being clear enough. I just struggle how a good faith market can even exist. I immediately start thinking how participants would be incentivized to cheat by neglecting or even introducing vulnerabilities to win. Maybe I’m just a bit too cynical and/or should do more reading on the topic.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#185

Post by _DeadFred_ »

randyrand wrote: post #93

Using insider information is how you are supposed to win these. Otherwise it's just random gambling. This is not the stock market. There are no public reporting rules for the weather, song lyrics, what Kim Kardashian eats tomorrow.

How have we regressed to the point of forgetting that you don't let athletes and referees gamble?

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#186

Post by sparky_z »

scoofy wrote: post #178
sparky_z wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The result was not, and could never have been, known a priori. All sorts of random things could have gone wrong with the operation causing the raid to fail and Maduro to remain in power. Trump could have just randomly changed his mind, or postponed the raid to beyond the end of January (the cutoff for the betting market). The person placing the bet was still taking a chance, but it was an informed chance that shifted…

> The result was not, and could never have been, known a priori. This is a level of solipsism not worth discussing. Yes, Superman could be a real person and we all had our minds altered to think he’s a superhero. Yes, when someone pulls the trigger of a gun pointed at someone’s head, it could misfire and explode in their hand. The point is that someone influencing prediction markets can push this probability to very,…

Which makes their information much more valuable than most people's.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#187

Post by perfmode »

elil17 wrote: post #14

How long before the government intentionally does something stupid so that a Prediction Market pays off? Probably won't happen actually, since they can just do blatant insider trading on the stock market instead.

The Venezuela operation is estimated to have cost around $250,000,000. Big actions require a big payoff.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#188

Post by sparky_z »

orwin wrote: post #139
sparky_z wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The result was not, and could never have been, known a priori. All sorts of random things could have gone wrong with the operation causing the raid to fail and Maduro to remain in power. Trump could have just randomly changed his mind, or postponed the raid to beyond the end of January (the cutoff for the betting market). The person placing the bet was still taking a chance, but it was an informed chance that shifted…

Wasn't a guy at google seeing the top seach result before publication and bet on those? That's also intelligence gathering, so i guess that's okay?

I mean, yes, unironically. If the goal of a prediction market is to find out the truth about the world, that's what will get you there faster.

Google might feel differently about whether it's OK in that case, but that's their prerogative.

Ask yourself: If the CIA really needed to know in advance what the top search result was going to be with as much accuracy as possible (for some weird reason, doesn't matter why), how would they go about doing it? Would they spend a bunch of time evaluating all of the public information, or would they just bribe (or otherwise convince) an insider at Google to tell them?

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#189

Post by sparky_z »

lxgr wrote: post #149
sparky_z wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The result was not, and could never have been, known a priori. All sorts of random things could have gone wrong with the operation causing the raid to fail and Maduro to remain in power. Trump could have just randomly changed his mind, or postponed the raid to beyond the end of January (the cutoff for the betting market). The person placing the bet was still taking a chance, but it was an informed chance that shifted…

> you can't make money (in expectation) by providing false information You certainly can, but that's usually called market manipulation, not insider trading.

Would love to know your proposed mechanism here.

Re: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Maduro's downfall

#190

Post by jasonjmcghee »

lxgr wrote: post #157
jasonjmcghee wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the laws around polymarket? I've never used it, but continue to see posts about employees making bets on privileged information and that being legal.

I highly doubt that that's the case, given that taking a large and publicly visible financial position based on confidential information still amounts to disclosing information.

Yeah I don't understand why it would be the case. How is it any different? It's trading on privileged information.
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