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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#341

Post by cyberax »

iknowstuff wrote: post #215
fencepost wrote: post #88

Doing a quick bit of searching based on the 4680 makes me think that there has been or will be a change from NMC811 to LFP chemistry in the 4680, including one article talking about changing to US and European-based in-house manufacturing and reducing dependence on China. I'm no fan of Tesla, but this looks like the collapse of the contract with the supplier for the battery chemistry they've moved away from, aka "no…

This makes sense but does it make sense to manufacture LFPs as 4680 cylinders instead of rectangular blocks/blades, given https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Blade_battery ?

Yep. Prismatic cells have poorer packaging-to-material ratio (circles are optimal). They offer better thermal properties, but thermals are not the main limiting factor anymore.

And the US automakers tried prismatic cells before. Chevy Volt used them in 2012!

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#343

Post by adonovan »

1121redblackgo wrote: post #140
mr_mitm wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’

Predicting is easy. Predicting correctly less so.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#344

Post by riffraff »

array_key_first wrote: post #227
iknowstuff wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of FSD in Europe. If they manage to get it approved in 2026 expect that to reverse.

I really, really doubt FSD is the limiter of European sales. It's pricing and competition. The US car market is laughably uncompetitive, with most manufacturers opting to make luxury landboats. It's easy to compete when all your competitors refuse to introduce an EV under, like, 50 grand.

I think musk's descent into politics also impacted the Tesla sales in Europe.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#345

Post by eru »

mmmm2 wrote: post #201
1121redblackgo wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’

Pump and dump scheme?

What evidence is there for the 'dump' part?

Mr Musk is a strange fellow indeed, but he's not guilty of all the vices and sins. Just plenty enough of them.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#346

Post by eru »

specialp wrote: post #324
selkin wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If he himself believes he can achieve his off-the-cuff deadlines or not doesn't matter for the rest of us: he already proven himself to be a fabulist, and after so many failed predictions, should know better than to air them in public, especially as he must be acutely aware that making such claims inflates his and his companies' net worth, and hence has legal implications. Only he cares not about those, as none of hi…

Somehow his company is worth ~1.6 trillion dollars, with most of that valuation being confidence in his predictions. He is predicting humanoid useful robots soon. Tesla's valuation defies reason

Well, feel free to short Tesla.

(And I say that with conviction. https://hindenburgresearch.com/ are my heroes.)

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#347

Post by riffraff »

foobarian wrote: post #116
renewiltord wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The declining sales is a concern. Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. The big dog is BYD though. Twice as many as 2nd place Tesla.

Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But even for overall sales it's #11 on the list for first 3 quarters of 2025, which is not too shabby: https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales...

The problem is Tesla's valuation is overpriced even if they owned 100% of the car market, their P/E ratio is > 300.

"But it's high margin", sure it is, but so is Ferrari, and their P/E is 30-40.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#348

Post by engineer_22 »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #127
netdur wrote: post #33

i don't understand americans, two years ago i wanted a tesla, now i want a byd, you've let down the only american company competing against the chinese, all because of trump and politics

We voted with our wallets. Between communism and Nazis, communism was the lesser evil. This is Musk's WW3.

Communism has killed hundreds of millions of innocent people. It's not cute or funny.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#349

Post by vel0city »

ggreer wrote: post #309
vel0city wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The main issue with prismatic cells is that to be safe, they must be made with LFP chemistry, which hurts energy density This is obviously untrue. Tons of other chemistries have used prismatic cells with good safety as well. You think Macbooks and iPhones use LFP or cylinder cells? > Batteries with cylindrical cells were easier to repair, It can be just as easy to repair a prismatic battery as a cylinder battery. I…

Since this is a discussion about electric vehicles, I thought it could go without saying that I was talking about batteries in such vehicles, not batteries in consumer electronics that are 1,000 times smaller. To use an analogy: If someone stores a gallon of gasoline in a single-walled plastic container, that's probably OK. But storing 1,000 gallons of gasoline without certain safety measures is unsafe. So it goes wi…

But it still is untrue even in the discussion of electric vehicles. Tons of EVs have been made safely with chemistries other than LFP with prismatic cells. In fact most non-LFP EV batteries are pouch or prismatic, not cylinder.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#350

Post by vel0city »

cyberax wrote: post #341
iknowstuff wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This makes sense but does it make sense to manufacture LFPs as 4680 cylinders instead of rectangular blocks/blades, given https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Blade_battery ?

Yep. Prismatic cells have poorer packaging-to-material ratio (circles are optimal). They offer better thermal properties, but thermals are not the main limiting factor anymore. And the US automakers tried prismatic cells before. Chevy Volt used them in 2012!

Chevy sells EVs with prismatic and pouch cells. I don't recall any they've widely sold that used cylinder cells. Most automakers use prismatic cells on their cars, even non-LFP variants.
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