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Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

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Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#161
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still sour of how easily I was deceived while being so happy when envisioning a future that won't come. First with autopilot, then with boring's tunnels, then a $39k cybertruck, then ... What's that saying about "fool me so many times I can't keep count" ? Whatever angry feeling we may have towards Elon Musk, he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. Lesson learned, till next time !

>>he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. He engineers perceptions, finance, and govt funds, not technology. Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. Which is why a better description would be: The Greediest Man On Earth.

Just stating that he does seem to inspire and build teams/orgs that do great things.

Both SpaceX and Tesla are accomplishments if you consider where their competitors are.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The declining sales is a concern. Was curious though so I looked it up and Tesla is currently selling more than Volkswagen, Ford, Rivian, Mercedes, and Toyota combined. Interesting. The big dog is BYD though. Twice as many as 2nd place Tesla.

Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising. But even for overall sales it's #11 on the list for first 3 quarters of 2025, which is not too shabby: https://www.carpro.com/blog/2025-year-to-date-u.s-auto-sales...

> Figured that metric is for EV only, which is not that surprising.

But it is stunning that legacy automakers are sticking to fossil fuels.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#163
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still sour of how easily I was deceived while being so happy when envisioning a future that won't come. First with autopilot, then with boring's tunnels, then a $39k cybertruck, then ... What's that saying about "fool me so many times I can't keep count" ? Whatever angry feeling we may have towards Elon Musk, he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. Lesson learned, till next time !

>>he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. He engineers perceptions, finance, and govt funds, not technology. Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. Which is why a better description would be: The Greediest Man On Earth.

> Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him.

In particular, nothing that comes out of his mouth regarding AI makes any sense.

And still, people listen to him as if he was an expert. Go figure.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#164
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They essentially gave away the market to Chinese companies, while at the same time complaining that China is "stealing" something.

Why didn’t the Europeans come out on top?

All the traditional car companies in the west failed.

I think short term focus is far too rewarded in Western companies. In fact that's pretty much the only oversight given to the CEOs. The next quarterly report is all that matters. Even if you wanted to do the right thing and focus on long term goals office politics will ensure that a single down quarter where you focused on long term investments will be punished by those looking to move up. Pump the numbers each and every quarter and don't bother about long term visions since those aren't important for your career, bonuses and golden parachute. The big shareholders too aren't worried about the long term either since shareholders are fluid. Pump this quarter and they can move their investments to the next company before the rot sets in.

The companies that do extremely well in the West are those with singular stable long term leadership where the leaders have authority (or simply majority ownership) to take risks. Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, Musks companies, Apple (under Jobs when he was around), etc.

This is partly why Tesla stock price is ridiculous. The competition is the traditional car companies which are extremely poorly run while Tesla is seen as a company run by a singular individual with more authority to take on longer term projects than just the next quarters goal. I think the market isn't correctly taking into account the possible mental illness from Musk but none the less there is merit to the idea that a company with singular stable leadership will be more successful than those which have quarterly focus.

This can be seen in many many examples. I actually don't think SpaceX is particularly well run either but their competition are companies where the only thing that matters for their leadership is the next quarterly report. So it's a case of a poorly run company vs an extremely terribly run company (eg. Boeing). No wonder SpaceX is doing well when their competition is fucking Boeing. Likewise with Amazon vs Walmart, Apple under jobs vs Apple not under Jobs, etc.

China commonly avoids this trap with stakeholder rather than shareholder based governance. This is less than perfect but it's still a league better than the race to the next quarter that Western shareholder governed companies have been doing. Details from an academic point of view: https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2025/06/18/what-chinas-e...

In other words the Western incentives for leadership is pretty broken (except when the leadership has the stability to avoid worrying about these short term incentives). I have the opinion that it's likely to lead to the fall of the West in the long term. We can see China repeatedly winning in various fields, electric cars being a clear example. We can also see in the West whenever we have shareholder based governance the companies have poor long term outcomes.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#165
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Maybe your brain could tell us where the batteries are being used and who is producing them. You know, evidence, instead of just something that resides in your brain.

> can only be used for the cybertruck

vs

> where the batteries are being used

It's just a different battery cell size with less overhead. 46 by 80 mm instead of e.g. 21 by 70 mm.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#166
post #58

[flagged]

What failed in the technology?

Because batteries are the only part you can criticize, take a look at the sodium batteries made by CATL:

https://cnevpost.com/2025/12/29/catl-expects-sodium-batterie...

https://carnewschina.com/2025/12/28/catl-confirms-2026-large...

It's a real breakthrough in battery tech. With gasoline you simply can't have this.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#167
post #33

i don't understand americans, two years ago i wanted a tesla, now i want a byd, you've let down the only american company competing against the chinese, all because of trump and politics

You had the opportunity to blame one person or an entire country. Which did you choose?

There's both collective blame for the US, and also individual blame for the idiocy of Musk. No choice necessary.

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#168
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why didn’t the Europeans come out on top?

> Why didn’t the Europeans come out on top? Fewer new entrants? America has Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, et cetera in the EV native camp, and Waymo in the autonomous-native camp. If we limit ourselves to export variants, Europe has Polestar. (And by this metric, China has dozens of new entrants in both fields.)

Polestar is owned by Geely, a Chinese company

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I lost the thread - GM looks twice as profitable, the same profit on half the revenue How does that justify Tesla's valuation? Is it based on the idea that the margin can be improved?

> Sorry, I lost the thread - GM looks twice as profitable You got it reversed. For Q3'2025, GM net income $1.3B on $48B revenue (down 0.3% YoY). Tesla, in contrast, generated $1.5B income on $28B revenue (up 12% YoY). GM's income was down 56.6% while Tesla's was down 37%. GM had higher operating income than Tesla, however. Explained by Tesla's more aggressive investment in R&D and AI.

Ah, got it now, thanks

Re: Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%

#170
post #52
post #2

Tesla stock dipped a little today it seems but it's still up 8 percent over the month. I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

If you want to understand how Tesla bulls pump the stock, check out any of the numerous videos of Dan Ives you will find on YouTube. He is regularly invited on CNBC and other financial new media as well as on financial blogs/vlogs. Here is one recent video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecLsZ4bkW6Q

Wow, that is the least confidence-inspiring person I've ever listened to (and perhaps laid eyes upon).
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