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The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

ceodinner.substack.com

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Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#91

I'm excited for the AI wildfire to come and engulf these AI-written thinkpieces. At this point I'd prefer a set of bullet points over having to sift through more "it's not X (emdash) it's Y" pestilence.

I just copy-paste an article into chatgpt and tell it to give me 3 bullet points for the article. We should have had this forever.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Candidly, the accusation of short-sightedness doesn't really make sense when it comes to enthusiasm in a technology which often in practice falls short today but which in certain cases and in more cases tomorrow than today is worth tremendous business value. If anything, you should accuse them of foolhardy recklessness. They are not the sticks in the mud.

Rushing to get on board something that looks like it might be the next big thing is often short-sighted. Some recent examples include Windows XP: Tablet Edition and Google Glass.

That's like saying that gambling is shortsighted. It depends entirely on the odds as to whether or not it's wise, but "shortsighted" implies that making the bet precludes some future course of action.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#94
post #17

I don't see how nvidia come out of this stronger their huge customers will be able to produce ASICs hat will be faster and cheaper to operate than their GPUs jensen has to be the luckiest man in the world, first crypto, now "AI"

> their huge customers will be able to produce ASICs hat will be faster and cheaper to operate than their GPUs

Why? NVIDIA is better positioned to produce faster and more efficient ML ASICs any of their huge customers (except possibly Google). And on top of that, the fact that there is a huge library of CUDA code that will run out of the box on NVIDIA hardware is a big advantage.

Arguably, this shift has already happened. Modern NVIDIA datacenter GPUs, like the H100, only bear a passing resemblance to a GPU -- most of the silicon is dedicated to accelerating ML workloads.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#95

With little growth and hiring happening outside of firms betting the farm on AI—and getting the funding to stay alive and play the lottery—what is a random tech employee supposed to do here? It seems like right now the most rational move to stay in the industry is to milk the AI wave as much as possible, learn all of the tools, get a big brand name on one's resume, and then land somewhere still-alive once the AI musi…

That is a —good— point.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#96
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you’re making engineer money, SV & big tech engineer money. Majority of engineering fields do not make that kind of money to retire at 50. Comfortable compared to the rest of the country, sure.

I think maybe that was implied, considering the topic of conversation and website we’re on. That said if you’re making $250k+ a year and not on track to retire by 50, seriously please open a retirement calculator and figure out what you need to do to get there.

I wouldn't assume. The readership of HN is quite vast. I've never worked at big tech and don't plan to.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#97

I think this article is nearing the truth in the future of AI. I think the avoidance of claiming it is a bubble is a good sign, but saying it's an AI wildfire is still hyperbole. The idea that inference will drive compute demand is not what I experience because inference is a much easier problem than training. The training of an AI (LLM) is especially demanding and if and when we complete that, inference will be a pi…

California gold rush is practically the textbook example of a mania. Gold, tulips, real estate, rail, witch hunts, satanic panic.. We shouldn't be worried because "this time it is different". "AI" is none of those things. It is "totally different this time". "AI" is going to do all the work for us, we are all going to get UBI then at some point as it grows the "ASI" is going to either figure out how to grant us immor…

> "AI" is going to do all the work for us, we are all going to get UBI then at some point as it grows the "ASI"

I don't see those companies promising that. They are bragging about being able to replace jobs for millions people and their CEOs are also simultaneously taking pretty dismissive attitude toward lesser people. If is more of "we will replace millions of people of eff you, billionaire class will become more powerful.

I am not saying it will realistically happen, I am saying that is what current messaging is.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#98
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if you’re making engineer money, SV & big tech engineer money. Majority of engineering fields do not make that kind of money to retire at 50. Comfortable compared to the rest of the country, sure.

I think maybe that was implied, considering the topic of conversation and website we’re on. That said if you’re making $250k+ a year and not on track to retire by 50, seriously please open a retirement calculator and figure out what you need to do to get there.

$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary.

A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k

Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k.

If you are married, groceries at least $1k.

Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year.

It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments.

That’s not enough to even buy you a house in SV. How are you going to retire?

Unless you assume you will get $250k straight out of college and keep up salary raises for 25 years.

Sure, if you don’t have kids, age with no health problems, never enjoy anything in life, you may be able to retire at 50 in Thailand or Philippines.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#99
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That “rational move” has always been a good move, regardless of AI. This is a boom/bust industry, and the next boom will come in a few years. While we’re at it, if you’re making engineer money, you should be targeting retirement at 50. I’m not saying you have to do that, but it sure helps to have that option.

> if you’re making engineer money, SV & big tech engineer money. Majority of engineering fields do not make that kind of money to retire at 50. Comfortable compared to the rest of the country, sure.

When you can retire depends on how little you need.

Though, of course, if you're living from investment income you should be aware you're living off the work of other people.

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