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The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

ceodinner.substack.com

11–20 of 218 posts

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#11
post #5
post #2

> Every promising engineer, designer, or operator is being courted by three, five, ten different AI startups, often chasing the same vertical, whether it’s coding copilots, novel datasets, customer service, legal tech, or marketing automation. This is flat out wrong.

I've been approached by a few companies to train their models to basically replace me. Why would I want to do this?

[flagged]

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#12
post #2

> Every promising engineer, designer, or operator is being courted by three, five, ten different AI startups, often chasing the same vertical, whether it’s coding copilots, novel datasets, customer service, legal tech, or marketing automation. This is flat out wrong.

I still don't understand what should this "wildfire" burn. My perspective is very limited, but where are the pets.com of AI today? Where are all the small companies with improbable business cases that are getting absurd valuations/ investments because they're in AI? The space seems mostly dominated by huge players that, while burning tons of cash, are still making real progress on something that will have more econom…

To be fair, if you look at language learning reddit, there are about 10 ads a day for shovelware of AI powered apps that no one ever needed. They would be those pets.com

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#14
post #3

VC is inherently high risk capital. It's by design most companies will fail or at most break even via acquisitions/acquihires, while a small few make investors massive amounts of money. The only real difference this time around is all of the datacenters being built. There's real hard asset costs making it much riskier and capital intensive.

The big difference this time around is that this 'high risk capital' isn't a small amount, it's 1-10% of the entire economy.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#15

> Businesses aren’t asking “do we want AI capabilities?” They’re asking “how much can we get, and how soon?” This is only because businesses are full of folks with short-sighted FOMO desperately trying to cram AI features into any product they can. AI is the new digital clock.

Candidly, the accusation of short-sightedness doesn't really make sense when it comes to enthusiasm in a technology which often in practice falls short today but which in certain cases and in more cases tomorrow than today is worth tremendous business value.

If anything, you should accuse them of foolhardy recklessness. They are not the sticks in the mud.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#16
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still don't understand what should this "wildfire" burn. My perspective is very limited, but where are the pets.com of AI today? Where are all the small companies with improbable business cases that are getting absurd valuations/ investments because they're in AI? The space seems mostly dominated by huge players that, while burning tons of cash, are still making real progress on something that will have more econom…

To be fair, if you look at language learning reddit, there are about 10 ads a day for shovelware of AI powered apps that no one ever needed. They would be those pets.com

Maybe I just didn't notice. Fair. But are these ads from companies that are collecting large capitals, or from small shops that just use the APIs provided by the few big players?

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#18
I think this article is nearing the truth in the future of AI. I think the avoidance of claiming it is a bubble is a good sign, but saying it's an AI wildfire is still hyperbole. The idea that inference will drive compute demand is not what I experience because inference is a much easier problem than training. The training of an AI (LLM) is especially demanding and if and when we complete that, inference will be a piece of cake.

I think the best metaphor will be the California gold rush. There is definitely gold there but most of it has already been mined. The people who are entering at this point are woefully unprepared, assuming that they can vibe their way into a fortune, when the rest of the gold requires hard earned labor.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#19
> The next cycle, driven by social and mobile, burned again in 2008–2009, clearing the underbrush for Facebook, Airbnb, Uber, and the offspring of Y Combinator. Both fires followed the same pattern: excessive growth, sudden correction, then renaissance.

The GFC doesn't have anything in common with the .com bubble, maybe we'd have see another tech bubble in the first 2010s if there were not a GFC, but it's fundamentally wrong to place those 2 things nearby.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#20
In other words, which companies are default alive or dead? [0]

The companies that are sustainable with their own revenue, covering their runway or nearly there, are likely to be alive if there’s not investors to keep them alive. Those with ridiculous commitments expecting a hail mary until their business model materializes, are living on borrowed time

0. https://paulgraham.com/aord.html

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