Hopefully Apple uses their volume as leverage to avoid getting affected by this for as long as possible. I can ride it out if they manage to.
The RAM shortage comes for us all
231–240 of 416 posts
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#232I think the OpenAI deal to lock wafers was a wonderful coup. OpenAI is more and more losing ground against the regularity[0] of the improvements coming from Anthropic, Google and even the open weights models. By creating a chock point at the hardware level, OpenAI can prevent the competition from increasing their reach because of the lack of hardware. [0]: For me this is really an important part of working with Claud…
> By creating a chock point at the hardware level, OpenAI can prevent the competition from increasing their reach because of the lack of hardware
I already hate OpenAI, you don't have to convince me
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, DDR3 is the lowest CAS latency and lasts ALOT longer. Just like SSDs from 2010 have 100.000 writes per bit instead of below 10.000. CPUs might even follow the same durability pattern but that remains to be seen. Keep your old machines alive and backed up!
CAS latency is specified in cycles and clock rates are increasing, so despite the number getting bigger there's actually been a small improvement in latency with each generation.
Not for small amounts of data.
Bandwith increases, but if you only need a few bytes DDR3 is faster.
Also slower speed means less heat and longer life.
You can feel the speed advantage by just moving the mouse on a DDR3 PC...
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#234This reminds me of the recent LaurieWired video presenting a hypothetical of, "what if we stopped making CPUs": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OJFqs8bUk Spoiler, but the answer is basically that old hardware rules the day because it lasts longer and is more reliable of timespans of decades. DDR5 32GB is currently going for ~$330 on Amazon DDR4 32GB is currently going for ~$130 on Amazon DDR3 32GB is currently goin…
Unfortunately, older RAM also means an older motherboard, which also means older socket and older CPUs. It works, but it's not usually a drop in replacement.
Can't you use DDR3 in DDR5 compatible board?
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#235If the OpenAI Hodling Company buys and warehouses 40% of global memory production or 900,000 memory wafers (i.e. not yet turned into DDR5/DDR6 DIMMs) per month at price X in October 2025, leading to supply shortages and tripling of price, they have the option of later un-holding the warehoused memory wafers for a profit. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46142100#46143535 Had Samsung known SK Hynix was about to co…
Sounds like the Silver Thursday all over again. I hope OpenAI ends up like the Hunt Btothers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
> To save the situation, a consortium of US banks provided a $1.1 billion line of credit to the brothers which allowed them to pay Bache which, in turn, survived the ordeal.
It seems once you amass a certain amount of wealth, you just get automatically bailed out from your mistakes
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#236Earlier quoted context omitted.
A dozen or so well-resourced tech titans in China are no doubt asking themselves this same question right now. Of course, it takes quite some time for a fab to go from an idea to mass production. Even in China. Expect prices to drop 2-3 years from now when all the new capacity comes online?
My napkin math: According to my research, these machines can etch around 150 wafers per hour and each wafer can fit around 50 top-of-the-line GPUs. This means we can produce around 7500 AI chips per hour. Sell them for $1k a piece. That's $7.5 million per hour in revenue. Run the thing for 3 days and we recover costs. I'm sure there's more involved but that sounds like a pretty good ROI to me.
The catch is if you started today with plenty of money (billions of dollars!) and could hire the right experts as you need them (this is a big if!) there would still be a couple years between today and producing 150 wafers per house. So the question isn't what does the math look like today, it is what the math looks like in 2 years - if you could answer that why didn't you start two years ago so you could get the current prices?
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#237This reminds me of the recent LaurieWired video presenting a hypothetical of, "what if we stopped making CPUs": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OJFqs8bUk Spoiler, but the answer is basically that old hardware rules the day because it lasts longer and is more reliable of timespans of decades. DDR5 32GB is currently going for ~$330 on Amazon DDR4 32GB is currently going for ~$130 on Amazon DDR3 32GB is currently goin…
a 2x16 ddr4 kit I bought in 2020 for $160 is now $220. older memory is relatively cheap but not cheaper than before at all.
I wondered how much of this is inflation -- after adjusting for CPI inflation, $160 in 2020 is worth $200 in today's dollars [$], so the price of that ddr4 kit is 10% higher in real terms.
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#238Bullwhip effect on this will be funny. At least, we are in for some cheap ram in like… a dozen months or so.
I’m really hoping this doesn’t become another GPU situation where every year we think it’s going to get lower and it just stays the same or gets worse
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
My napkin math: According to my research, these machines can etch around 150 wafers per hour and each wafer can fit around 50 top-of-the-line GPUs. This means we can produce around 7500 AI chips per hour. Sell them for $1k a piece. That's $7.5 million per hour in revenue. Run the thing for 3 days and we recover costs. I'm sure there's more involved but that sounds like a pretty good ROI to me.
What about the $10b to build the facility (including clean air/water/chemicals/etc)?
Rent a warehouse.
Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all
#240Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately, older RAM also means an older motherboard, which also means older socket and older CPUs. It works, but it's not usually a drop in replacement.
Can't you use DDR3 in DDR5 compatible board?
Unfortunately not, each version of RAM uses a different physical slot.