The RAM shortage comes for us all • Hacker News Board

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#71

Post by jsheard » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:51 PM UTC

throw0101d wrote: post #67

jsheard wrote: post #2

I wonder if Apple will budge. The margins on their RAM upgrades were so ludicrous before that they're probably still RAM-profitable even without raising their prices, but do they want to give up those fat margins?

> I wonder if Apple will budge. Perhaps I don't understand something so clarification would be helpful: I was under the impression that Apple's RAM was on-die, and so baked in during chip manufacturing and not a 'stand alone' SKU that is grafted onto the die. So Apple does not go out to purchase third-party product, but rather self-makes it (via ASML) when the rest of the chip is made (CPU, GPU, I/O controller, etc )…

Apple's RAM is on-package, not on-die. The memory is still a separate die which they buy from the same suppliers as everyone else.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/df/Mac_Mini...

That whole square is the M1 package, Apple's custom die is under the heatspreader on the left, and the two blocks on the right are LPDDR packages stacked on top of the main package.

https://wccftech.com/apple-m2-ultra-soc-delidded-package-siz...

Scaled up, the M2 Ultra is the same deal just with two compute dies and 8 separate memory packages.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#72

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:51 PM UTC

nish__ wrote: post #58

GeekFortyTwo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with no skills in the space, no money, and lives near Ottawa: I'd love to help start a fab in Ontario.

Right on, partner. I think there's a ton of demand for it tbh I'll do the engineering so we're good on that front. Just need investors.

[deleted]

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#73

Post by Eric_WVGG » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:51 PM UTC

dcchambers wrote: post #4

jsheard wrote: post #2

I wonder if Apple will budge. The margins on their RAM upgrades were so ludicrous before that they're probably still RAM-profitable even without raising their prices, but do they want to give up those fat margins?

I am fully expecting a 20%+ price bump on new mac hardware next year.

Not me. It’s wildly unusual for Apple to raise their prices on basically anything… in fact I'm not sure if its ever happened. *

It’s been pointed out by others that price is part of Apple's marketing strategy. You can see that in the trash can Mac Pro, which logically should have gotten cheaper over the ridiculous six years it was on sale with near-unchanged specs. But the marketing message was, "we're selling a $3000 computer."

Those fat margins leave them with a nice buffer. Competing products will get more expensive; Apple's will sit still and look even better by comparison.

We are fortunate that Apple picked last year to make 16gb the new floor, though! And I don't think we're going to see base SSDs get any more generous for a very, very long time.

* okay I do remember that Macbook Airs could be had for $999 for a few years, that disappeared for a while, then came back

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#74

Post by diabllicseagull » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:52 PM UTC

jsheard wrote: post #2

I wonder if Apple will budge. The margins on their RAM upgrades were so ludicrous before that they're probably still RAM-profitable even without raising their prices, but do they want to give up those fat margins?

I'd like to believe that their pricing for ram upgrades are like that so the base model can hit a low enough of a price. I don't believe they have the same margin for the base model compared to the base model + memory upgrade.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#75

Post by frankchn » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:52 PM UTC

hodgehog11 wrote: post #60

Loic wrote: post #13

I think the OpenAI deal to lock wafers was a wonderful coup. OpenAI is more and more losing ground against the regularity[0] of the improvements coming from Anthropic, Google and even the open weights models. By creating a chock point at the hardware level, OpenAI can prevent the competition from increasing their reach because of the lack of hardware. [0]: For me this is really an important part of working with Claud…

I don't see this working for Google though, since they make their own custom hardware in the form of the TPUs. Unless those designs include components that are also susceptible?

TPUs use HBM, which are impacted.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#76

Post by Reason077 » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:52 PM UTC

nish__ wrote: post #18

Anyone want to start a fab with me? We can buy an ASML machine and figure out the rest as we go. Toronto area btw

A dozen or so well-resourced tech titans in China are no doubt asking themselves this same question right now.

Of course, it takes quite some time for a fab to go from an idea to mass production. Even in China. Expect prices to drop 2-3 years from now when all the new capacity comes online?

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#77

Post by segmondy » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:52 PM UTC

stevenjgarner wrote: post #24

My understanding is that this is primarily hitting DDR5 RAM (or better). With prices so inflated, is there an argument to revert and downgrade systems to DDR4 RAM technology in many use cases (which is not so inflated)?

DDR4 prices have gone up 4x in the last 3 months.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#78

Post by dangus » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:52 PM UTC

roadside_picnic wrote: post #37

I know this is mostly paranoid thinking on my behalf, but it almost feels like this is a conscious effort to attempt to destroy "personal" computing. I've been a huge advocate for local, open, generative AI as the best resistance to massive take-over by large corporations controlling all of this content creation. But even as it is (or "was" I should say), running decent models at home is prohibitively expensive for m…

It’s not a conspiracy, it’s just typical dumb short term business decisions amplified and enabled by a cartel supply market.

If Crucial screws up by closing their consumer business they won’t feel any pain from it because the idea of new competitors entering the space is basically impossible.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#79

Post by bri3d » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:52 PM UTC

hodgehog11 wrote: post #60

Loic wrote: post #13

I think the OpenAI deal to lock wafers was a wonderful coup. OpenAI is more and more losing ground against the regularity[0] of the improvements coming from Anthropic, Google and even the open weights models. By creating a chock point at the hardware level, OpenAI can prevent the competition from increasing their reach because of the lack of hardware. [0]: For me this is really an important part of working with Claud…

I don't see this working for Google though, since they make their own custom hardware in the form of the TPUs. Unless those designs include components that are also susceptible?

Still susceptible, TPUs need DRAM dies just as much as anything else that needs to process data. I think they use some form of HBM, so they basically have to compete alongside the DDR supply chain.

Re: The RAM shortage comes for us all

#80

Post by geerlingguy » Thu, Dec 04, 2025, 7:53 PM UTC

stevenjgarner wrote: post #24

My understanding is that this is primarily hitting DDR5 RAM (or better). With prices so inflated, is there an argument to revert and downgrade systems to DDR4 RAM technology in many use cases (which is not so inflated)?

Linked in the article, DDR4 and LPDDR4 are also 2-4x more expensive now, forcing smaller manufactures to raise prices or cancel some products entirely.