191–200 of 416 posts
Anyone want to start a fab with me? We can buy an ASML machine and figure out the rest as we go. Toronto area btw
It wouldn't pay off.
Starting a futures exchange on RAM chips, on the other hand...
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Please explain to me like I am five: Why does OpenAI need so much RAM? 2024 production was (according to openai/chatgpt) 120 billion gigabytes. With 8 billion humans that's about 15 GB per person.
large language models are large and must be loaded into memory to train or to use for inference if we want to keep them fast. older models like gpt3 have around 175 billion parameters. at float32s that comes out to something like 700GB of memory. newer models are even larger. and openai wants to run them as consumer web services.
For one, if this was about inference, wouldn't the bottleneck be the GPU computation part?
Anyone want to start a fab with me? We can buy an ASML machine and figure out the rest as we go. Toronto area btw
A dozen or so well-resourced tech titans in China are no doubt asking themselves this same question right now. Of course, it takes quite some time for a fab to go from an idea to mass production. Even in China. Expect prices to drop 2-3 years from now when all the new capacity comes online?
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A dozen or so well-resourced tech titans in China are no doubt asking themselves this same question right now. Of course, it takes quite some time for a fab to go from an idea to mass production. Even in China. Expect prices to drop 2-3 years from now when all the new capacity comes online?
My napkin math: According to my research, these machines can etch around 150 wafers per hour and each wafer can fit around 50 top-of-the-line GPUs. This means we can produce around 7500 AI chips per hour. Sell them for $1k a piece. That's $7.5 million per hour in revenue. Run the thing for 3 days and we recover costs. I'm sure there's more involved but that sounds like a pretty good ROI to me.
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Yeah, I think (sadly) this kills the Steam Machine in the short term if the competition is current consoles. At least until the supply contracts Sony & Microsoft have signed come up for renewal, at which point they’re going to be getting the short end of the RAM stick too. In the short term the RAM shortage is going to kill homebrew PC building & small PC builders stone dead - prebuilts from the larger suppliers will…
> At least until the supply contracts Sony & Microsoft have signed come up for renewal, at which point they’re going to be getting the short end of the RAM stick too. Allegedly Sony has an agreement for a number of years, but Microsoft does not: https://thegamepost.com/leaker-xbox-series-prices-increase-r...
The fight over RAM supply is going to upend a lot of product markets. Just random happenstance over whether a company decided to lock in supply for a couple of years is going to make or break individual products.
Let's be honest here - the projects I'm going to do in 2026, I bought the parts for those back in 2024. But this is definitely going to make me put off some projects that I might have finally gotten around to in 2028.
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Micron has said they're not scaling up production. Presumably they're afraid of being left holding the bag when the bubble does pop
Why are they building a foundry in Idaho? https://www.micron.com/us-expansion/id
The 2027 timeline for the fab is when DDR6 is due to hit market.
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If your argument is that value produced per-cpu will increase so significantly that the value produced by AGI/ASI per unit cost exceeds what humans can produce for their upkeep in food and shelter, then yes that seems to be one of the significant risks long term if governments don't intervene. If the argument is that prices will skyrocket simply because of long-term AI demand, I think that ignores the fact that manuf…
>the value produced by AGI/ASI per unit cost exceeds what humans can produce for their upkeep in food and shelter The value of AGI/ASI is not only defined by its practical use, It is also bounded by the purchasing power of potential consumers. If humans aren’t worth paying, those humans won’t be paying anyone either. No business can function without customers, no matter how good the product.
Perhaps we'll have to start optimizing software for performance and RAM usage again. I look at MS Teams currently using 1.5GB of RAM doing nothing.
I wonder if these RAM shortages are going to cause the Steam Machine to be dead on arrival. Valve is probably not a big enough player to have secured production guarantees like Sony or Nintendo would have. If they try to launch with a price tag over $750, they're probably not going sell a lot.
Lol, wacky reality if they say "hey we had spare cash so we bought out Micron to get DDR5 for our gaming systems"