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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#691
post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you can’t edit files while Xcode is building or the compiler will throw up, so I‘m wondering what you mean here. You can’t even run swift test in 2 agents at the same time, because swift serializes access for some reason. Whenever I have more than 1 agent run Swift tests in a loop to fix things, and another one to build something, the latter will disturb the former and I need to cancel. And then there’s a lot of…

Yes these are horrible pain points. I can only hope Apple improves this stuff if it's true that they're adding MCP support throughout the OS which should require better multi-agent handling You can use worktrees to have multiple copies building or testing at once I'm a solo dev so I rarely use some git features like rebase. I work out of trunk only without branches (if I need a branch, I use a feature flag). So I can…

Yes, that makes sense to me. I cannot really put builds in a queue because I have very fine-grained updates that I tell my agents so they do need the direct feedback to check what they have just done actually works, or they will interfere with each other’s work.

I do strive to use Mac OS targets because those are easier to deal with than a simulator, especially when you use Bluetooth stuff and you get direct access to log files and SQLite files.

Solo devs have it way easier in this new world because there’s no strict rules to follow. Whatever goes, goes, I guess.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ha what an incredible consumer-friendly outcome! Hopefully competition keeps the focus on improving models and prevents irritating kinds of monetization

Just like uber rides funded by VC cash was great...until the VC money ran out and prices jumped to fill the gap.

the prices jumped and uber is now profitable, I think that's the future for AI as well -- some will fail, but eventually some will be profitable.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#693

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

Same experience here. The more commonly known the stuff it regurgitates is, the fewer errors. But if you venture into RF electronics or embedded land, beware of it turning into a master of bs.

Which makes sense for something that isn’t AI but LLM.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#694

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

On the contrary, I cannot use the top Gemini and Claude models because their outputs are so out place and hard to integrate with my code bases. The GPT 5 models integrate with my code base's existing patterns seamlessly.

Supply some relevant files of your codebase in the ClaudeAI project area in the right part of the browser. Usually it will understand your architecture, patterns, principles

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#695

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometim…

> I was more prepared and asked it to improve class by class, and for whatever reasons I got better answers There is a learning curve with all of the LLM tools. It's basically required for everyone to go through the trough of disillusionment when you realize that the vibecoding magic isn't quite real in the way the influencers talk about it. You still have to be involved in the process, steer it in the right directio…

For me the learning curve was learning to choose what is worth asking to Claude. After 3 months on it, I can reap the benefit: Claude produces the code I want right 80% of the time. I usually ask it: to create new functions from scratch (it truly shines at understanding the context of these functions by reusing other parts of the code I wrote), refactor code, create little tools (for example a chart viewer).

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#696

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

I doubt it's that important that their dataset of current events is up to date. At this stage, I believe private and synthetic data comprises a large fraction of pretraining. Web search substitutes for current event pretraining.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#697
post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be a little bit more nuanced: I think there's something off with their plans right now: it's pretty clear at this point that they can't own the technological frontier, Google is just too close already and from a purely technological PoV they are much better suited to have the best tech in the medium term. (There's no moat and Google has way more data and compute available, and also tons of cash to burn without de…

as long as the business model is: - users want the best/smartest LLM - the best performance for inference is found by spending more and more tokens (deep thinking) - pricing is based on cost per token Then the inference providers/hyperscalers will take all of the margin available to app makers (and then give it to Nvidia apparently). It is a bad business to be in, and not viable for OpenAI at their valuation.

What I'm saying ils that I'm not sure the first point is true.

I think they all have become sufficiently good for most people to stick to what they are used to (especially in terms of tone/“personality” + the memory shared between conversations).

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can generate $20 billion in ARR this year too! I just need you to give me $100 billion and allow me to sell each of your dollars for 0.2 dollars.

It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…

That's not the parent point though? His point is that if the models are not largely available, and then are better competitors; then what's the point of ChatGPT? Maybe you decide to stick with ChatGPT for whatever reason, but people will move to cheaper and better alternatives.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#699
> Altman said the company will be delaying initiatives like ads, shopping and health agents, and a personal assistant, Pulse, to focus on improving ChatGPT

It's so telling that they're delaying these "festures" because the know full well people don't want them.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's Coca Cola vs Pepsi. Yes some might even say Pepsi has been shown to taste better, but people still buy loads of Coke. Of course the tech savvy enterprises will use the best models. But the plumber down the road doesn't care whether she asks Gemini or ChatGPT about the sizing of some fittings.

right, but casual users aren't paying (and won't ever)

Users aren't paying for Google or Facebook either. Advertisers do.
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