Fix: Bring back Ilya, fire Sam Altman.
Ilya’s doing fine raking in billions for what’s effectively a D&D campaign
OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
681–690 of 960 posts
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#682Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…
I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometim…
Interesting. From my experience, Claude is much better at stuff involving frontend design somehow compared to other models (GPT is pretty bad). Gemini is also good but often the "thinking" mode just adds stuff to my code that I did not ask it to add or modifies stuff to make it "better". It likes to 1 up on the objective a lot which is not great when you're just looking for it to do what you precisely asked it and nothing else.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#683Earlier quoted context omitted.
SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...
This is a really great breakdown. With TPUs seemingly more efficient and costing less overall, how does this play for Nvidia? What's to stop them from entering the TPU race with their $5 trillion valuation?
As others mentioned, 5T isn't money available to NVDA. It could leverage that to buy a TPU company in an all stock deal though.
The bigger issue is that entering a 'race' implies a race to the bottom.
I've noted this before, but one of NVDA's biggest risks is that its primary customers are also technical, also make hardware, also have money, and clearly see NVDA's margin (70% gross!!, 50%+ profit) as something they want to eliminate. Google was first to get there (not a surprise), but Meta is also working on its own hardware along with Amazon.
This isn't a doom post for NVDA the company, but its stock price is riding a knifes edge. Any margin or growth contraction will not be a good day for their stock or the S&P.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#684Earlier quoted context omitted.
Anecdotally yes. Since launch I’ve observed probably 50% of the folks that were “ChatGPT those that” all the time suddenly talking about Gemini non-stop. The more that gets rolled into Google’s platform the more there’s point to using separate tooling from OpenAI. There’s a reason Sam is calling this “code red.”
Interesting. And these people weren't mostly techies? My impression has been that the further someone is from tech, the more likely they are to think that ChatGPT is synonymous with LLMs.
I'm seeing it outside of techies. My dad told me "AI Google said that..."
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#685OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…
Maybe? But you could have written this same thing in 1999 with OpenAI and Google replaced by Google and Yahoo, respectively.
Google was immediately better than Yahoo, that's why people switched en masse.
Same thing happen with Internet Explorer and Chrome, or going from Yahoo mail/Hotmail to Gmail.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#686Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have never considered trying to apply Claude/Gemini/etc. to Fortran or COBOL. That would be interesting.
You can actually use Claude Code (and presumably the other tools) on non-code projects, too. If you launch claude code in a directory of files you want to work on, like CSVs or other data, you can ask it to do planning and analysis tasks, editing, and other things. It's fun to experiment with, though for obvious reasons I prefer to operate on a copy of the data I'm using rather than let Claude Code go wild.
Side note from someone who just used Claude Code today for the first time: Claude Code is a TUI, so you can run it in any folder/with any IDE and it plays along nicely. I thought it was just another vscode clone, so I was pleasantly surprised that it didn't try to take over my entire workflow.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#687Earlier quoted context omitted.
NME at all - 5.1 codex has been the best by far.
By my tests ( https://github.com/7mind/jopa ) Gemini 3 is somewhat better than Claude with Opus 4.5. Both obliterate Codex with 5.1
Codex is super cheap though even with the cheapest GPT subscription you get lots of tokens. I use 4.5 opus at work and codex at home tbh the differences are not that big if you know what you are doing.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#688Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a really great breakdown. With TPUs seemingly more efficient and costing less overall, how does this play for Nvidia? What's to stop them from entering the TPU race with their $5 trillion valuation?
As others mentioned, 5T isn't money available to NVDA. It could leverage that to buy a TPU company in an all stock deal though. The bigger issue is that entering a 'race' implies a race to the bottom. I've noted this before, but one of NVDA's biggest risks is that its primary customers are also technical, also make hardware, also have money, and clearly see NVDA's margin (70% gross!!, 50%+ profit) as something they w…
Making the hardware is actually the easy part. Everyone and their uncle who had some cash have tried by now: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Huawei, Amazon, Intel - the list goes on and on. But Nvidia is not a chip company. Huang himself said they are mostly a software company. And that is how they were able to build a gigantic moat. Because noone else has even come close on the software side. Google is the only one who has had some success on this side, because they also spent tons of money and time on software refinement by now, while all the other chips vanished into obscurity.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#689Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair, I would get a ton of value out of someone selling dollars for 20 cents apiece. But ya, OAI is clearly making a ton of revenue. That doesn't mean it's a good business, though. Giving them a 20 year horizon, shareholders will be very upset unless the firm can deliver about a trillion in profit , not revenue, to justify the 100B (so far) in investment, and that would barely beat the long term s&p 500 average…
People did say the same thing about Youtube, which was unprofitable and extremely expensive to run in the early years. I remember thinking everyone would leave once ads were added. At youtube's ad income rate (~$13/year), the current (but growing) ~800 million chatgpt users would add ~$10 billion. At facebook's rate (~$40-50/year) $32-40 billion. Potentially, an assistant would be more integrated into your life than…
The network effects aren't the same. All the viewers watch youtube because it has all the content, and all the creators post on youtube because it has all the viewers.
How can a model achieve this kind of stickiness? By "knowing you"? I don't think that's the same at all. Personally, one of the reasons I prefer Claude is that it doesn't pretend to know me. I can control the context better.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#690Earlier quoted context omitted.
the problem with the YouTube analogy is that media platforms have significant network affects that NN providers don't. OpenAI can't command a premium because every year that goes by the cost to train an equivalent model to theirs decreases.
Youtube didn't either at the time. The front page was widely seen as garbage, and everyone I knew watched videos because they were embedded or linked from external sites. "If they introduced ads, people will just switch to other video hosts, wont they?". Many of the cooler creators used Vimeo. It was the good recommendation algorithm that came later, that I think allowed an actual network effect, and I don't remember…
That's a bit revisionist. Network effects were obvious when Google acquired Youtube. Google Video had the edge technically, but it didn't matter because Youtube had the users/content and Google saw that very clearly in their user growth before they made their offer.