This "all hands on deck" thing is a classic tactic managers use when they don't actually know what to do or have the domain expertise to allocate resources intelligently and help their employees do their jobs.
OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
431–440 of 960 posts
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#432Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…
> They're not paying me to use it. Of course they are. > As long as the inference is not done at a loss. If making money on inference alone was possible, there would be a dozen different smaller providers who'd be taking the open weights models and offering that as service. But it seems that every provider is anchored at $20/month, so you can bet that none of them can go any lower.
> If making money on inference alone was possible, there would be a dozen different smaller providers who'd be taking the open weights models and offering that as service.
There are! Look through the provider list for some open model on https://openrouter.ai . For instance, DeepSeek 3.1 has a dozen providers. It would not make any sense to offer those below cost because you have neither moat nor branding.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#433Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd be a little bit more nuanced: I think there's something off with their plans right now: it's pretty clear at this point that they can't own the technological frontier, Google is just too close already and from a purely technological PoV they are much better suited to have the best tech in the medium term. (There's no moat and Google has way more data and compute available, and also tons of cash to burn without de…
> But ChatGPT is an insane brand I mean, so was netscape.
This. Netscape was THE browser in the early phases of the Internet. Then Microsoft just packaged IE into Windows and it was game over. The brand means nothing long term. If Google broadly incorporates Gemini into all the Google-owned things everyone already has then it’s game over for OpenAI.
The mass commoditization of the tech is rapidly driving AI to be a feature, not a product. And Google is very strongly positioned to take advantage of that. Microsoft too, and of course they have a relationship with OpenAI but that’s fraying.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#434Earlier quoted context omitted.
I asked ChatGPT 5.1 to help me solve a silly installation issue with the codex command line tool (I’m not an npm user and the recommended installation method is some kludge using npm), and ChatGPT told me, with a straight face, that codex was discontinued and that I must have meant the “openai” command.
"with a straight face"
Anthropomorphizing non-human things is only human.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#435Earlier quoted context omitted.
I asked ChatGPT 5.1 to help me solve a silly installation issue with the codex command line tool (I’m not an npm user and the recommended installation method is some kludge using npm), and ChatGPT told me, with a straight face, that codex was discontinued and that I must have meant the “openai” command.
"with a straight face"
:|
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#436Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kind of, but there are limits. The investors still have LPs who aren’t going to be happy if things get messy. Things can still get really ugly even for a private company.
The LPs are eyeing that $1 trillion IPO to dump on retail. They don't care what Sam says until then.
That ship has sailed. CNBC talks about the AI bubble and over-valuation every day. Retail investors won’t touch OpenAI. It’s increasingly looking like these LPs will be left holding the bag when the music stops.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#437The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.
Absolutely. I don't understand why investors are excited about getting into a negative-margin commodity. It makes zero sense. I was an OpenAI fan from GPT 3 to 4, but then Claude pulled ahead. Now Gemini is great as well, especially at analyzing long documents or entire codebases. I use a combination of all three (OpenAI, Anthropic & Google) with absolutely zero loyalty. I think the AGI true believers see it as a win…
> I don't understand why investors are excited about getting into a negative-margin commodity. It makes zero sense.
Long term, yes. But Wall Street does not think long term. Short or medium term, you just need to cash out to the next sucker in line before the bubble pops, and there are fortunes to be made!
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#438Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…
All of which you will be able to do with your bundled assistant in the not-to-distant future. OpenAI is a basket case: - Too expensive and inconvenient to compete with commoditized, bundled assistants (from Google/ Microsoft/Apple) - Too closed to compete with cheap, customizable open-source models - Too dependent on partners - Too late to establish its own platform lock-in It echoes what happened to: - Netscape (squ…
So why does Salesforce still prosper? They are just a fancy database.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#439Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair, I would get a ton of value out of someone selling dollars for 20 cents apiece. But ya, OAI is clearly making a ton of revenue. That doesn't mean it's a good business, though. Giving them a 20 year horizon, shareholders will be very upset unless the firm can deliver about a trillion in profit , not revenue, to justify the 100B (so far) in investment, and that would barely beat the long term s&p 500 average…
I'd be a little bit more nuanced: I think there's something off with their plans right now: it's pretty clear at this point that they can't own the technological frontier, Google is just too close already and from a purely technological PoV they are much better suited to have the best tech in the medium term. (There's no moat and Google has way more data and compute available, and also tons of cash to burn without de…
The best way to drive inference cost down right now is to use TPUs. Either that or invest tons of additional money and manpower into silicon design like Google did, but they already have a 10 year lead there.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#440Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…
I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometim…
I have never considered trying to apply Claude/Gemini/etc. to Fortran or COBOL. That would be interesting.