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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#622

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I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometim…

I have never considered trying to apply Claude/Gemini/etc. to Fortran or COBOL. That would be interesting.

You can actually use Claude Code (and presumably the other tools) on non-code projects, too. If you launch claude code in a directory of files you want to work on, like CSVs or other data, you can ask it to do planning and analysis tasks, editing, and other things. It's fun to experiment with, though for obvious reasons I prefer to operate on a copy of the data I'm using rather than let Claude Code go wild.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#623
post #572

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People did say the same thing about Youtube, which was unprofitable and extremely expensive to run in the early years. I remember thinking everyone would leave once ads were added. At youtube's ad income rate (~$13/year), the current (but growing) ~800 million chatgpt users would add ~$10 billion. At facebook's rate (~$40-50/year) $32-40 billion. Potentially, an assistant would be more integrated into your life than…

the problem with the YouTube analogy is that media platforms have significant network affects that NN providers don't. OpenAI can't command a premium because every year that goes by the cost to train an equivalent model to theirs decreases.

Youtube didn't either at the time. The front page was widely seen as garbage, and everyone I knew watched videos because they were embedded or linked from external sites. "If they introduced ads, people will just switch to other video hosts, wont they?". Many of the cooler creators used Vimeo. It was the good recommendation algorithm that came later, that I think allowed an actual network effect, and I don't remember people predicting that.

The field is too young to know what will keep users, but there are definitely things that plausibly could create a lock-in effect. I mentioned one ("ChatGPT knows me") which could grow over time as people have shared more of themselves with ChatGPT. There's also pilots of multi-person chats, and the social elements in Sora. Some people already feel compelled to stick to the "person" they're comfortable talking to. The chance of OpenAI finding something isn't zero.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#624

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> Bedrock This sounds so enterprise. I've been wanting to talk to people that actually use it. Why use Bedrock instead of OpenRouter, Fal, etc.? Doesn't that tie you down to Amazon forever? Isn't the API worse? Aren't the p95 latencies worse? The costs higher?

Given a choice between being “locked in” to a major cloud provider and trusting your business to a randomish little company, you are never going to get a compliance department to go for the latter. “no one ever got fired for choosing AWS”. This is the API - it’s basically the same for all supported languages https://docs.aws.amazon.com/code-library/latest/ug/python_3_... Real companies aren’t concerned about cost as…

> And the lock in boogeyman is something only geeks care about. Migrations from one provider to another costs so much money...

You just gave the definition of lock in.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#625
post #249

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Advertising is going to be nothing like that. Here's an example where I experimented with adding a pre-prompt to push Nike products. Imagine that these products have direct links, so that OpenAI can track clickthrough rates: >> What are the best barefoot running shoes? ChatGPT said: Barefoot running shoes are designed to give a more natural running experience, with minimal cushioning and a zero-drop sole to mimic bar…

> What are the best barefoot running shoes? Immediately followed by > [...] While not technically classified as "barefoot" shoes Your own example here shows the AI immediately giving an answer that is clearly incorrect, just to push a product.

Yep. Exactly. It won't be obvious, clearly marked ads, but subtle biases, skew, and placement of slightly misplaced products in answers.

You seem to think I want this future. I'm merely making a prediction on the most profitable, and thus most likely, way to advertise with an LLM.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#626

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

Did Google actually train a new model? The cutoff dates for Gemini 3 and 2.5 are the same.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#627
post #586
post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People could trivially switch their search engine to Bing or Yahoo, but they don't. If ads are so overpriced, how big is your short position on google? Also ads are extremely inefficient in terms of conversion. Ads rendered by an intelligent, personalized system will be OOM more efficient, negating most of the "overvalue". I'm not saying they should serve ads. It's a terrible strategy for other reasons.

You know that Google literally spends billions to ensure that people don’t switch, right? That’s possible because they’re immensely profitable.

Isn't the billions just setting the default? The ability to switch is the same as far as I understand it.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#628
What are devs using to run Gemini agents in vscode? 2.5pro on Cline/Roo was pretty buggy compared to Claude/gpt4/5 (also using Cline /roo), kept getting stuck in loops outputting repeated text and many editing issues, and much much worse than Claude code or codex. Has it gotten better? Is there a better way of using Gemini in vscode?
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