Earlier quoted context omitted.
All of which you will be able to do with your bundled assistant in the not-to-distant future. OpenAI is a basket case: - Too expensive and inconvenient to compete with commoditized, bundled assistants (from Google/ Microsoft/Apple) - Too closed to compete with cheap, customizable open-source models - Too dependent on partners - Too late to establish its own platform lock-in It echoes what happened to: - Netscape (squ…
So why does Salesforce still prosper? They are just a fancy database.
OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
611–620 of 960 posts
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#612Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is pretty much all that OpenAI is at the moment. Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market. OpenAI is a non-profit funded by a generous wealthy benefactor (Microsoft). Ideas of IPO and profitability are all just pipe dreams in Altmans imagination.
> Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market. Good way of phrasing things. Kinda sad to read this, I tried to react with 'wait there is competition in the browser market', but it is not a great argument to make - without money for using Google as a default search engine, Mozilla would effectively colla…
given how bloated it (the org) is, i think that may be a good thing. Return firefox to good old community contributions, and donations from users.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#613Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is pretty much all that OpenAI is at the moment. Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market. OpenAI is a non-profit funded by a generous wealthy benefactor (Microsoft). Ideas of IPO and profitability are all just pipe dreams in Altmans imagination.
> Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market. Good way of phrasing things. Kinda sad to read this, I tried to react with 'wait there is competition in the browser market', but it is not a great argument to make - without money for using Google as a default search engine, Mozilla would effectively colla…
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#614I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#615I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…
Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…
The problem is that the "AI"s can cough up code examples based upon proprietary codebases that you, as an individual, have no access to. That creates a significant quality differential between coders who only use publicly available search (Google, Github, etc.) vs those who use "AI" systems.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#616Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable products and established ad-funded revenue streams. Just some numbers to show what OpenAI is against: GMail users: nearing 2 billion Youtube MAU: 2.5 billion active Android devices: 4 billion (!) Market cap: 3.8 trillion (at a P/E of 31) So on one side you've got this behemoth with, comp…
You just made it clear who needs to acquire openai.. it's going to be Apple! (Jonny Ive already there). And great points on the Google history.. let's not forget they wrote the original Transformers paper after all
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#617Earlier quoted context omitted.
SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...
The SemiAnalysis article that you linked to stated: "OpenAI’s leading researchers have not completed a successful full-scale pre-training run that was broadly deployed for a new frontier model since GPT-4o in May 2024, highlighting the significant technical hurdle that Google’s TPU fleet has managed to overcome." Given the overall quality of the article, that is an uncharacteristically convoluted sentence. At the ris…
The would have taken some time to calculate the efficiency gains of pretraining vs RL. Resumed the GPT-4.5 for whatever budget made sense and then spent the rest on RL.
Sure they chose to not serve the large base models anymore for cost reasons.
But I’d guess Google is doing the same. Gemini 2.5 samples very fast and seems way to small to be their base pre train. The efficiency gains in pertaining scale with model scale so it makes sense to train the largest model possible. But then the models end up super sparse and oversized and make little sense to serve in inference without distillation.
In RL the efficiency is very different because you have to inference sample the model to draw online samples. So small models start to make more sense to scale.
Big model => distill => RL
Makes the most theoretical sense for training now days for efficient spending.
So they already did train a big model 4.5. Not using it would have been absurd and they have a known recipe they could return scaling on if the returns were justified.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#618Altman should know better. This sends terrible signals to employees, stakeholders and customers.
You don’t solve quality problems by scrambling teams and increasing pressure.
This reeks of terrible management. I can imagine Stanford graduates grinding it past midnight for “the mission”. If any if you is reading this: don’t do it. Altman is screwing you over. There are plenty of other places that won’t code-red your christmas season while having hundreds of billions of dollars in cash.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#619Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…
> I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription I think that’s what they’re saying. OpenAI is selling you a $1 product for $0.2 Tokens are too cheap right now and nobody is working on a path to dial up the cost
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#620I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…
It's not a rumor, it's confirmed by OpenAI. All "models" since 4o are actually just optimizations in prompting and a new routing engine. The actual -model- you are using with 5.1 is 4. Nothing has been pre-trained from scratch since 4o. Their own press releases confirm this. They call 5 their best new "ai system", not a new model https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/
It certainly was much dumber than 4o on Perplexity when I tried it.