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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#501

Post by davidnc »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #278
dist-epoch wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why did Google stock increase massively since about when Gemini 2.5 Pro was released, their first competitive model?

That’s not evidence of anything in and of itself. RIMs stock price was at its highest in 2009 two years after the iPhone came out.

I was curious about this - if my Google results are accurate, it looks like the stock actually peaked in June 2007, the same month that the iphone was released.

It seems that Blackberry's market share of new phone sales peaked at 20% in 2009. So I'm not sure if it's coincidence, but it looks like the market actually did a pretty good job of pricing in the iphone/android risk well before it was strongly reflected in sales.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#502

Post by vondur »

felixfurtak wrote: post #213

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

I don't think the Government would let them fail, so long as the specter of the Chinese becoming dominant in AI is a thing.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#503

Post by antinomicus »

131hn wrote: post #500
scotty79 wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, LLMs are not really good about things that can't be done. At some point you'll be better off with implementing features they hallucinated. Some people with public APIs already took this approach.

They are trained with 100% true facts and sucessfull paths. We humans grec our analysis/reasoning skills towards the 99.9999% failed attempts of everything we did, uncessfull trials and errors, wastefull times and frustrations. So we know that behind a truth, there’s a bigger world of fantasy. For LLM, everything is just a fantasy. Everything is as much true as it’s opposite. It will need a lot more than the truth to…

I was with you until the very last line, can you expand on that?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#504

Post by nimchimpsky »

findjashua wrote: post #384
p1necone wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

NME at all - 5.1 codex has been the best by far.

[dead]

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#505

Post by bmadduma »

Word needs need OpenAI and Anthropic like startups to drive AI forward. Think about only Google, Meta, MS, AWS is only have these capabilities. They will never able to do that in one hand, other hand it will be monopolistics. We need more AI startups, not monopolies.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#506

Post by cindyllm »

antinomicus wrote: post #503
131hn wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are trained with 100% true facts and sucessfull paths. We humans grec our analysis/reasoning skills towards the 99.9999% failed attempts of everything we did, uncessfull trials and errors, wastefull times and frustrations. So we know that behind a truth, there’s a bigger world of fantasy. For LLM, everything is just a fantasy. Everything is as much true as it’s opposite. It will need a lot more than the truth to…

I was with you until the very last line, can you expand on that?

[dead]

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#507

Post by wahnfrieden »

spongebobstoes wrote: post #483
manmal wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you can’t edit files while Xcode is building or the compiler will throw up, so I‘m wondering what you mean here. You can’t even run swift test in 2 agents at the same time, because swift serializes access for some reason. Whenever I have more than 1 agent run Swift tests in a loop to fix things, and another one to build something, the latter will disturb the former and I need to cancel. And then there’s a lot of…

I use the web ui, easy to parallelize stuff to 90% done. manually finish the last 10% and a quick test

For Xcode projects?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#508

Post by simonsarris »

achow wrote: post #146

WSJ: Altman said OpenAI would be pushing back work on other initiatives, such as advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, and a personal assistant called Pulse. These plus working with Jony Ive on hardware, makes it sound like they took their eyes off the ball.

Didn't they announce all kinds of other things? A social network like X, and a browser, at least.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#509

Post by rahimnathwani »

alecco wrote: post #317
jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...

Dylan Patel joined Dwarkesh recently to interview Satya Nadella: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#510

Post by abakker »

antinomicus wrote: post #503
131hn wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are trained with 100% true facts and sucessfull paths. We humans grec our analysis/reasoning skills towards the 99.9999% failed attempts of everything we did, uncessfull trials and errors, wastefull times and frustrations. So we know that behind a truth, there’s a bigger world of fantasy. For LLM, everything is just a fantasy. Everything is as much true as it’s opposite. It will need a lot more than the truth to…

I was with you until the very last line, can you expand on that?

I think he was getting at the fact that the Truth is not good news to everyone.
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