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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#301

Post by shaftway »

vivzkestrel wrote: post #44

In one of the Indian movies, there is a rather funny line that goes like this "tu jiss school se padh kar aaya hai mein uss school ka headmaster hoon". It would translate like this "The school from which you studied and came? I am the principal of that school". Looks like Google is about to show who the true principal is

I think the most relevant quote is from Futurama:

"Eh-de-de-de-de. Don't quote me regulations... I co-chaired the committee that reviewed the recommendation to revise the color of the book that regulation is in. We kept it gray."

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#302

Post by searls »

jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

Funny, had it tell me the same thing twice yesterday and that was _with_ thinking + search enabled on the request (it apparently refused to carry out the search, which it does once in every blue moon).

I didn't make this connection that the training data is that old, but that would indeed augur poorly.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#303

Post by ReptileMan »

bgirard wrote: post #290
stack_framer wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can generate $20 billion in ARR this year too! I just need you to give me $100 billion and allow me to sell each of your dollars for 0.2 dollars.

It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…

>. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold.

I think that there were some article here that claimed that even inference is done at loss - and talking about per subscriber. I think it was for their 200$ subscription.

In a way we will be in a deal with it situation soon where they will just impose metered models and not subscription.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#304

Post by mirthflat83 »

bgirard wrote: post #290
stack_framer wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can generate $20 billion in ARR this year too! I just need you to give me $100 billion and allow me to sell each of your dollars for 0.2 dollars.

It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…

Well, don't you think you're getting a ton of value because they're selling each of their dollars for 0.2 dollars?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#305

Post by searls »

felixfurtak wrote: post #213

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

It would be funny if OpenAI turns for-profit, faceplants, and then finds new life (as Mozilla did) as a non-profit sharing its tools for free.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#306

Post by doug_durham »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #263

Is it really a race? It feels more like a slog. I continue to try to use AI (google, openai, and anthropic), and it continues to be a pain in the ass. Their consumer interfaces are garbage, both being buggy/bloated and clunky to work over multiple threads, with its "memory" being nearly nonexistent outside a single thread. They randomly fail to do the thing they did successfully 5 minutes ago. I struggle to get them…

It sounds like you have found an approach that works for you, and that's great. In my experience I've had to devote a lot of time to learning to use AI tools. Most of this learning is understanding how to create the necessary context for success and getting an intuition for what questions to ask.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#307

Post by cmiles8 »

riku_iki wrote: post #279
unsupp0rted wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can he safely lie about that? Or would that be a slam-dunk lawsuit against him? He's already got Elon Musk on his enemies list.

I am not a lawyer, but it is possible he can say whatever he wants without consequences to public because OAI is not a public company.

Kind of, but there are limits. The investors still have LPs who aren’t going to be happy if things get messy. Things can still get really ugly even for a private company.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#308

Post by shaftway »

amelius wrote: post #58
deelowe wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not exactly. Infra will win the race. In this aspect, Google is miles ahead of the competition. Their DC solutions scale very well. Their only risk is that the hardware and low level software stack is EXTREMELY custom. They don't even fully leverage OCP. Having said that, this has never been a major problem for Google over their 20+ years of moving away from OTS parts.

But anyone with enough money can make infra. Maybe not at the scale of Google, but maybe that's not necessary (unless you have a continuous stream of fresh high-quality training data).

Anyone with enough money can cross any moat. That's one of the many benefits of having infinite money.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#309

Post by munk-a »

bgirard wrote: post #290
stack_framer wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can generate $20 billion in ARR this year too! I just need you to give me $100 billion and allow me to sell each of your dollars for 0.2 dollars.

It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…

As a developer - ChatGPT doesn't hold a candle compared to claude for coding related tasks and under performs for arbitrary format document parsing[1]. It still has value and can handle a lot of tasks that would amaze someone in 2020 - but it is simply falling behind and spending much more doing so.

1. It actually under performs Claude, Gemini and even some of the Grok models for accuracy with our use case of parsing PDFs and other rather arbitrarily formatted files.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#310

Post by anileated »

vivzkestrel wrote: post #44

In one of the Indian movies, there is a rather funny line that goes like this "tu jiss school se padh kar aaya hai mein uss school ka headmaster hoon". It would translate like this "The school from which you studied and came? I am the principal of that school". Looks like Google is about to show who the true principal is

Probably all of the ML foundation like transformers which OpenAI used to create its chatbot was originally developed at Google.
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