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A new AI winter is coming?

taranis.ie

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Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#151

Post by jl6 »

dangus wrote: post #57
john61 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The argument that computational complexity has something to do with this could have merit but the article certainly doesn’t give indication as to why. OP says it is because that predicting the next token can be correct or not, but it always looks plausible because that is what it calculates. Therefore it is dangerous and can not be fixed because it is how it works in essence.

I just want to point out a random anecdote. Literally yesterday ChatGPT hallucinated an entire feature of a mod for a video game I am playing including making up a fake console command. It just straight up doesn’t exist, it just seemed like a relatively plausible thing to exist. This is still happening. It never stopped happening. I don’t even see a real slowdown in how often it happens. It sometimes feels like the o…

I get generally good results from prompts asking for something I know definitely exists or is definitely possible, like an ffmpeg command I know I’ve used in the past but can’t remember. Recently I asked how to something in Imagemagick which I’d not done before but felt like the kind of thing Imagemagick should be able to do. It made up a feature that doesn’t exist.

Maybe I should have asked it to write a patch that implements that feature.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#152

Post by nradov »

bitwize wrote: post #69
dangus wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just want to point out a random anecdote. Literally yesterday ChatGPT hallucinated an entire feature of a mod for a video game I am playing including making up a fake console command. It just straight up doesn’t exist, it just seemed like a relatively plausible thing to exist. This is still happening. It never stopped happening. I don’t even see a real slowdown in how often it happens. It sometimes feels like the o…

[flagged]

First of all, there is no such thing as "prompt engineering". Engineering, by definition, is a matter of applying scientific principles to solve practical problems. There are no clear scientific principles here. Writing better prompts is more a matter of heuristics, intuition, and empiricism. And there's nothing wrong with that — it can generate a lot of business value — but don't presume to call it engineering.

Writing better prompts can reduce the frequency of hallucinations but frequent hallucinations still occur even with the latest frontier LLMs regardless of prompt quality.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#153

Post by marknutter »

beachtaxidriver wrote: post #93
swalsh wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hard disagree, I'm in the process of deploying several AI solutions in Healthcare. We have a process a nurse usually spends about an hour on, and costs $40-$70 depending on if they are offshore and a few other factors. Our AI can match it at a few dollars often less. A nuse still reviews the output, but its way less time. The economics of those tokens is great. We have another solution that just finds money, $10-$30…

It's true, but do you really trust the AI generated + Nurse Review output more than Organic Nurse generated? In my experience, management types use the fact that AI generated + Nurse Review is faster to push a higher quota of forms generated per hour. Eventually, from fatigue or boredom, the human in the loop just ends up being a rubber stamper. Would you trust this with your own or your children's life? The human in…

These same questions could be asked about self driving cars, but they've been shown to be consistently safer drivers than humans. If this guy is getting consistently better results from ai+human than it is from just humans, what would it matter if the former results in errors given the latter results in more and costs more?

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#154

Post by kipchak »

aydyn wrote: post #95
Lambdanaut wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You understand how the brain works right? It's probability distributions mapped to sodium ion channels. The human understands nothing.

Thats how the brain works, not how the mind works. We understand the hardware, not the software.

Are we even sure we understand the hardware? My understanding is even that is contested, for example orchestrated objective reduction, holonomic brain theory or GVF theory.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#155

Post by phantasmish »

emp17344 wrote: post #18
aroman wrote: post #11

When the hype is infinite (technological singularity and utopia), any reality will be a let down. But there is so much real economic value being created - not speculation, but actual business processes - billions of dollars - it’s hard to seriously defend the claim that LLMs are “failures” in any practical sense. Doesn’t mean we aren’t headed for a winter of sobering reality… but it doesn’t invalidate the disruption…

Other than inflated tech stocks making money off the promise of AI, what real economic impact has it actually had? I recall plenty of articles claiming that companies are having trouble actually manifesting the promised ROI.

My company’s spending a lot of money doing things they could have done fifteen or more years ago with classic computer vision libraries and other pre-LLM techniques, cheaper and faster.

Most of the value of AI for our organization is the hype itself providing the activation energy, if you will, to make these projects happen. The value added by the AI systems per se has been minimal.

(YMMV but that’s what I’m seeing at the non-tech bigco I’m at—it’s pretty silly but the checks continue to clear so whatever)

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#156

Post by cmiles8 »

swatcoder wrote: post #146
swalsh wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hard disagree, I'm in the process of deploying several AI solutions in Healthcare. We have a process a nurse usually spends about an hour on, and costs $40-$70 depending on if they are offshore and a few other factors. Our AI can match it at a few dollars often less. A nuse still reviews the output, but its way less time. The economics of those tokens is great. We have another solution that just finds money, $10-$30…

Those sound like typical bootstrap-sized workflow optimization opportunities, which are always available but have a modest ceiling on both sales volume and margin. That's great that you happened to find a way to use "AI solutions" for this, but it fits precisely inside the parents "tech wise, I'm bullish" statement. It's genuinely new tech, which can unearth some new opportunities like this, by addressing many niche…

Well said.

Folks were super bullish tech wise on the internet when it was new and that turned out it be correct. It was also correct that the .com bubble wiped out a generation of companies and those that survived took a decade or more to recover.

The same thing is playing out here… tech is great and not going away but also the business side is increasingly looking like another implosion waiting to happen.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#157

Post by 6510 »

dangus wrote: post #99
bitwize wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

So you are saying the acceptable customer experience for these systems is that we need to explicitly tell them to accept defeat when they can’t find any training content/web search results that matches my query enough? Why don't they have any concept of having a percentage of confidence in their answer? It isn’t 2022 anymore, this is supposed to be a mature product. Why am I even using this thing rather than using th…

> What value is this system adding....

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44588383

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#158

Post by kakapo5672 »

johnfn wrote: post #124

I’m fascinated by people who say that LLMs have failed in practice. Last week, when I was on PTO, I used AI to to a full redesign of a music community website I run. I touched about 40k lines of code in a week. The redesign is shipped and everyone is using it. AI let me go about 5-10x faster than if I would have done this by hand. (In fact, I have tried doing this in the past, so I really do have an apples to apples…

Yes, and I've had similar results. I'm easily 10x times more productive with AI, and I'm seeing the same in my professional network. The power of AI is so clear and obvious, that I'm astonished so many folks remain in vigorous denial.

So when I read articles like this, I too am fascinated by the motivations and psychology of the author. What is going on there? The closest analogue I can think of is Climate Change denialism.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#159

Post by lm28469 »

Nevermark wrote: post #76

I am simply stunned at the negativity. Yes, there is hype. But if you actually filter it out, instead of (over) reacting to it in either direction, progress has been phenomenal and the fact there is visible progress in many areas, including LLMs, in the order of months demonstrates no walls. Visible progress doesn’t mean astounding progress. But any tech that is improving year to year is moving at a good speed. Huge…

There was value in leaded gas and asbestos insulation too, nobody denies that.

You're blind to all the negative side effects, AI generated slop ads, engagement traps, political propaganda, scams, &c. The amount of pollution is incredible, search engines are dead, blogs are dead, YouTube is dead, social medias are dead, it's virtually impossible to find non slop content, the ratio is probably already 50:1 by now

And these are only the most visible things, I know a few companies losing hundreds of hours every month replying to support tickets that are fully llm generated an more often than not don't make any sense. Another big topic is education.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#160

Post by reducesuffering »

svaha1728 wrote: post #144
johnfn wrote: post #124

I’m fascinated by people who say that LLMs have failed in practice. Last week, when I was on PTO, I used AI to to a full redesign of a music community website I run. I touched about 40k lines of code in a week. The redesign is shipped and everyone is using it. AI let me go about 5-10x faster than if I would have done this by hand. (In fact, I have tried doing this in the past, so I really do have an apples to apples…

On a music blog, yes! Now go try to rewrite the firmware for your car.

95% of the work engineers on this forum do are high level apps like a "music blog", and not car firmware...
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