LLMs are an amazing advancement. The tech side of things is very impressive. Credit where credit is due. Where the current wave all falls apart is on the financials. None of that makes any sense and there’s no obvious path forward. Folks say handwavy things like “oh they’ll just sell ads” but even a cursory analysis shows that math doesn’t ad up relative to the sums of money being invested at the moment. Tech wise I’…
Don't confuse OpenAI financials with Google financials. OpenAI could fold and Google would be fine.
A new AI winter is coming?
91–100 of 301 posts
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#92Modern LLMs could be like the equivalent of those steam powered toys the Romans had in their time. Steam tech went through a long winter before finally being fully utilized for the Industrial Revolution. We’ll probably never see the true AI revolution in our lifetime, only glimpses of what could be, through toys like LLMs. What we should underscore though, is that even if there is a new AI winter, the world isn’t goi…
The development of LLM's required access to huge amounts of decent training data. It could very well that the current generation of AI has poisoned the well for any future endeavors of creating AI. You can't trivially filter out the AI slop and humans are less likely to make their handcrafted content freely available for training. In fact violating GPL code to train models on it might be ruled to be illegal as well g…
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#93LLMs are an amazing advancement. The tech side of things is very impressive. Credit where credit is due. Where the current wave all falls apart is on the financials. None of that makes any sense and there’s no obvious path forward. Folks say handwavy things like “oh they’ll just sell ads” but even a cursory analysis shows that math doesn’t ad up relative to the sums of money being invested at the moment. Tech wise I’…
Hard disagree, I'm in the process of deploying several AI solutions in Healthcare. We have a process a nurse usually spends about an hour on, and costs $40-$70 depending on if they are offshore and a few other factors. Our AI can match it at a few dollars often less. A nuse still reviews the output, but its way less time. The economics of those tokens is great. We have another solution that just finds money, $10-$30…
In my experience, management types use the fact that AI generated + Nurse Review is faster to push a higher quota of forms generated per hour.
Eventually, from fatigue or boredom, the human in the loop just ends up being a rubber stamper. Would you trust this with your own or your children's life?
The human in the loop becomes a lot less useful when it's pressured to process a certain quota against an AI that's basically stochastic "most probable next token", aka professional bullshitter, literally trained to generate plasuible outputs with no responsibility to accurate outputs.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just want to point out a random anecdote. Literally yesterday ChatGPT hallucinated an entire feature of a mod for a video game I am playing including making up a fake console command. It just straight up doesn’t exist, it just seemed like a relatively plausible thing to exist. This is still happening. It never stopped happening. I don’t even see a real slowdown in how often it happens. It sometimes feels like the o…
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Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…
You understand how the brain works right? It's probability distributions mapped to sodium ion channels. The human understands nothing.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#96AI just got better and better. People thought it couldn't solve math problems without some human formalizes them first. Then it did. People thought it couldn't generate legible text. Then it did.
All while people swore it had reached a "plateau," "architecture ceiling," "inherent limit," or whatever synonym of the goalpost.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#97Modern LLMs could be like the equivalent of those steam powered toys the Romans had in their time. Steam tech went through a long winter before finally being fully utilized for the Industrial Revolution. We’ll probably never see the true AI revolution in our lifetime, only glimpses of what could be, through toys like LLMs. What we should underscore though, is that even if there is a new AI winter, the world isn’t goi…
Put another way, the advent of industrialized steam power wasn't so much about steam per se, but rather the intersection of a number of factors (steam itself obviously being an important one). This intersection became a lot more likely as the pace of innovation in general began accelerating with the Enlightenment and the ease with which this information could be collected and synthesized.
I suspect that the LLM itself may also prove to be less significant than the density of innovation and information of the world it's developed in. It's not a certainty that there's a killer app on the scale of mechanized steam, but the odds of such significant inventions arguably increase as the basics of modern AI become basic knowledge for more and more people.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#98This article uses the computational complexity hammer way too hard, discounts huge progress in every field of AI outside of the hot trend of transformers and LLMs. Nobody is saying the future of AI is autoregressive and this article pretty much ignores any of the research that has been posted here around diffusion based text generation or how it can be combined with autoregressive methods… discounts multi-modal model…
> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…
LLMs aren't as good as humans at understanding, but it's not just statistics. The stochastic parrot meme is wrong. The networks create symbolic representations in training, with huge multidimensional correlations between patterns in the data, whether its temporal or semantic. The models "understand" concepts like emotions, text, physics, arbitrary social rules and phenomena, and anything else present in the data and context in the same fundamental way that humans do it. We're just better, with representations a few orders of magnitude higher resolution, much wider redundancy, and multi-million node parallelism with asynchronous operation that silicon can't quite match yet.
In some cases, AI is superhuman, and uses better constructs than humans are capable of, in other cases, it uses hacks and shortcuts in representations, mimics where it falls short, and in some cases fails entirely, and has a suite of failure modes that aren't anywhere in the human taxonomy of operation.
LLMs and AI aren't identical to human cognition, but there's a hell of a lot of overlap, and the stochastic parrot "ItS jUsT sTaTiStIcS!11!!" meme should be regarded as an embarrassing opinion to hold.
"Thinking" models that cycle context and systems of problem solving also don't do it the same way humans think, but overlap in some of the important pieces of how we operate. We are many orders of magnitude beyond old ALICE bots and MEgaHAL markov chains - you'd need computers the size of solar systems to run a markov chain equivalent to the effective equivalent 40B LLM, let alone one of the frontier models, and those performance gains are objectively within the domain of "intelligence." We're pushing the theory and practice of AI and ML squarely into the domain of architectures and behaviors that qualify biological intelligence, and the state of the art models clearly demonstrate their capabilities accordingly.
For any definition of understanding you care to lay down, there's significant overlap between the way human brains do it and the way LLMs do it. LLMs are specifically designed to model constructs from data, and to model the systems that produce the data they're trained on, and the data they model comes from humans and human processes.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just want to point out a random anecdote. Literally yesterday ChatGPT hallucinated an entire feature of a mod for a video game I am playing including making up a fake console command. It just straight up doesn’t exist, it just seemed like a relatively plausible thing to exist. This is still happening. It never stopped happening. I don’t even see a real slowdown in how often it happens. It sometimes feels like the o…
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Why don't they have any concept of having a percentage of confidence in their answer?
It isn’t 2022 anymore, this is supposed to be a mature product.
Why am I even using this thing rather than using the game’s own mod database search tool? Or the wiki documentation?
What value is this system adding for me if I’m supposed to be a prompt engineer?
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just want to point out a random anecdote. Literally yesterday ChatGPT hallucinated an entire feature of a mod for a video game I am playing including making up a fake console command. It just straight up doesn’t exist, it just seemed like a relatively plausible thing to exist. This is still happening. It never stopped happening. I don’t even see a real slowdown in how often it happens. It sometimes feels like the o…
There is no difference between "hallucination" and "soberness", it's just a database you can't trust. The response to your query might not be what you needed, similar to interacting with an RDBMS and mistyping a table name and getting data from another table or misremembering which tables exist and getting an error. We would not call such faults "hallucinations", and shouldn't when the database is a pile of eldritch…