Earlier quoted context omitted.
> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…
It could very well be that statistics and tokens is how our brains work at the computational level too. Just that our algorithms have slightly better heuristics due to all those millennia of A/B testing of our ancestors.
A new AI winter is coming?
141–150 of 301 posts
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
Correct
wrong. OpenAI is literally the only AI company with horrific financials. You think google is actually bleeding money on AI? they are funding it all with cash flow and still have monster margins.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#143I agree, I have over 20 years of software engineering experience and after vibe coding/engineering/architecting (or whatever you want to call it) for a couple months, I also don't see the technology progressing further. LLMs are more or less the same as 6 months ago, incremental improvements, but no meaningful progress. And what we have is just bad. I can use it because I know the exact code I want generated and I wi…
Go back to a older version of a LLM and then say the same. You will notice that older LLM versions do less, have more issues, write worse code etc...
There have been large jumps in the last 2 years but because its not like we go from a LLM to AGI, that people underestimate the gains.
Trust me, try it, try Claude 3.7 > 4.0 > 4.5 > Opus 4.5 ...
> I'm unconvinced that this is faster than a good search engine and writing code myself.
What i see is mostly somebody who is standoffish on LLMs ... Just like i was. I tried to shoehorn their code generation into "my" code, and while it works reasonably, you tend to see the LLM working on "your code", as a invasion. So you never really use its full capabilities.
LLMs really work the best, if you plan, plan, plan, and then have them create the code for you. The moment you try to get the LLMs work inside existing code, that is especially structured how YOU like it, people tend to be more standoffish.
> It's too expensive as it is for what it does.
CoPilot is like 27 Euro/month(year payment + dollar/euro) for 1500 requests here. We pay just for basic 100Mbit internet 45 Euro per month. I mean ... Will it get more expensive in the future, o yes, for sure. But we may also have alternatives by then. Open Source/Open Weight models are getting better and better, especially with MoE.
Pricing is how you look at it... If i do the work what takes me a months in a few days, what is the price then? If i do work that i normally need to outsource. Or code that is some monotoon repeating end me %@#$ ... in a short time by paying a few cents to a LLM, ...
Reality is, thing change, and just like the farmers that complained about the tractor, while their neighbor now did much more work thanks to that thing, LLMs are the same.
I often see the most resistance from us older programmer folks, who are set in our ways, when its us who actually are the best at wrangling LLMs the best. As we have the experience to fast spot where a LLM goes wrong, and guide it down the right path. Tell it, the direction is debugging is totally wrong and where the bug more likely is ...
For the last 2 years i paid just the basic cheap $10 subscription, and use it but never strongly. It helped with those monotoon tasks etc. Until ... a months ago, i needed a specific new large project and decided to just agent / vibe code it, just to try at first. And THEN i realized, how much i was missing out off. Yes, that was not "my" code, and when the click came in my head that "i am the manager, not the programmer", you suddenly gain a lot.
Its that click that is hard for most seasoned veterans. And its ironically often the seasoned guys that complain the most about AI ... when its the same folks that can get the most out of LLMs.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#144I’m fascinated by people who say that LLMs have failed in practice. Last week, when I was on PTO, I used AI to to a full redesign of a music community website I run. I touched about 40k lines of code in a week. The redesign is shipped and everyone is using it. AI let me go about 5-10x faster than if I would have done this by hand. (In fact, I have tried doing this in the past, so I really do have an apples to apples…
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is no difference between "hallucination" and "soberness", it's just a database you can't trust. The response to your query might not be what you needed, similar to interacting with an RDBMS and mistyping a table name and getting data from another table or misremembering which tables exist and getting an error. We would not call such faults "hallucinations", and shouldn't when the database is a pile of eldritch…
This seems unnecessarily pedantic. We know how the system works, we just use "hallucination" colloquially when the system produces wrong output.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#146LLMs are an amazing advancement. The tech side of things is very impressive. Credit where credit is due. Where the current wave all falls apart is on the financials. None of that makes any sense and there’s no obvious path forward. Folks say handwavy things like “oh they’ll just sell ads” but even a cursory analysis shows that math doesn’t ad up relative to the sums of money being invested at the moment. Tech wise I’…
Hard disagree, I'm in the process of deploying several AI solutions in Healthcare. We have a process a nurse usually spends about an hour on, and costs $40-$70 depending on if they are offshore and a few other factors. Our AI can match it at a few dollars often less. A nuse still reviews the output, but its way less time. The economics of those tokens is great. We have another solution that just finds money, $10-$30…
That's great that you happened to find a way to use "AI solutions" for this, but it fits precisely inside the parents "tech wise, I'm bullish" statement. It's genuinely new tech, which can unearth some new opportunities like this, by addressing many niche problems that were either out of reach before or couldn't be done efficiently enough before. People like yourself should absolutely be looking for smart new small businesses to build with it, and maybe you'll even be able to grow that business into something incredible for yourself over the next 20 years. Congratulations and good luck.
The AI investment bubble that people are concerned about is about a whole different scale of bet being made; a bet which would only have possibly paid off if this technology completely reconfigured the economy within the next couple years. That really just doesn't seem to be in the cards.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#147Is "A New AI Winter Is Coming" the new "The Year of Linux Desktop"?
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with everything you wrote, the technology is unbelievable and 6 years ago, maybe even 3.1 years would have been considered magic. A steel man argument for why winter might be coming is all the dumb stuff companies are pushing AI for. On one hand (and I believe this) we argue it’s the most consequential technology in generations. On the other, everybody is using it for nonsense like helping you write an email…
> maybe even 3.1 years would have been considered magic I vividly remember sitting there for literally hours talking to a computer on launch day, it was a very short night. This feeling of living in the future has not left me since, it's got quieter, but it's still there. It's still magic after those three years, perhaps even more so. It wasn't supposed to work this well for decades! and yet.
3 things we know about the AI revolution in 2025:
- LLMs are amazing, but they have reached a plateau. AGI is not within reach.
- LLM investment has sacrificed many hundreds of billions of dollars, much of it from the world's pension funds.
- There is no credible path to a high-margin LLM product. Margins will be razor-thin positive at best once the free trial of the century starts to run out of steam.
This all adds up to a rather nasty crunch.
The thing about winter, though, is that it's eventually followed by another summer.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#149The poster is right. LLMs are Gish Gallop machines that produce convincing sounding output. People have figured it out by now. Generative "AI" will fail, other forms may continue, though it it would be interesting to hear from experts in other fields how much fraud there is. There are tons of material science "AI" startups, it is hard to believe they all deliver.
>produce convincing sounding output Well, correctness(though not only correctness) sounds convincing, the most convincing even, and ought to be information-theory-wise cheaper to generate than a fabrication, I think. So if this assumption holds, the current tech might have some ceiling left if we just continue to pour resources down the hole.
Re: A new AI winter is coming?
#150I've been reading about this supposed AI winter for at least 5 years by now, and in the meantime any AI-related stock has gone 10x and more.
Go ahead and double check when the LLM craze started and perhaps reconsider making things up.