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A new AI winter is coming?

taranis.ie

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Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#111

Post by dragonwriter »

citizenpaul wrote: post #10

>Expect OpenAI to crash, hard, with investors losing their shirts. Lol someone doesn't understand how the power structure system works "the golden rule". There is a saying if you owe the bank 100k you have a problem. If you owe the bank ten million the bank has a problem. OpenAI and the other players have made this bubble so big that there is no way the power system will allow themselves to take the hit. Expect some…

Tax subsized bailouts usually are structured to protect the corporation as a separate entity, creditors (compared to letting the org continue on its unimpeded path), employees, and sometimes, beyond their position as current creditors, suppliers, but not as often do they protect existing equity holders.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#112

Post by baq »

andy99 wrote: post #65
stanfordkid wrote: post #16

This article uses the computational complexity hammer way too hard, discounts huge progress in every field of AI outside of the hot trend of transformers and LLMs. Nobody is saying the future of AI is autoregressive and this article pretty much ignores any of the research that has been posted here around diffusion based text generation or how it can be combined with autoregressive methods… discounts multi-modal model…

I agree with everything you wrote, the technology is unbelievable and 6 years ago, maybe even 3.1 years would have been considered magic. A steel man argument for why winter might be coming is all the dumb stuff companies are pushing AI for. On one hand (and I believe this) we argue it’s the most consequential technology in generations. On the other, everybody is using it for nonsense like helping you write an email…

> maybe even 3.1 years would have been considered magic

I vividly remember sitting there for literally hours talking to a computer on launch day, it was a very short night. This feeling of living in the future has not left me since, it's got quieter, but it's still there. It's still magic after those three years, perhaps even more so. It wasn't supposed to work this well for decades! and yet.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#113

Post by phantasmish »

cess11 wrote: post #78
dangus wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just want to point out a random anecdote. Literally yesterday ChatGPT hallucinated an entire feature of a mod for a video game I am playing including making up a fake console command. It just straight up doesn’t exist, it just seemed like a relatively plausible thing to exist. This is still happening. It never stopped happening. I don’t even see a real slowdown in how often it happens. It sometimes feels like the o…

There is no difference between "hallucination" and "soberness", it's just a database you can't trust. The response to your query might not be what you needed, similar to interacting with an RDBMS and mistyping a table name and getting data from another table or misremembering which tables exist and getting an error. We would not call such faults "hallucinations", and shouldn't when the database is a pile of eldritch…

Yep. All these do is “hallucinate”. It’s hard to work those out of the system because that’s the entire thing it does. Sometimes the hallucinations just happen to be useful.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#114

Post by RamblingCTO »

I'm so annoyed by this negativity. Is AI perfect? No, far from it. Does it have a positive impact on productivity? 100%. Do I care about financials? Absolutely not. There's the regular hype cycle. But these idiotic takes like "dotcom 2.0" and "AI winter" are just and show that the author has no clue what they are talking about.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#115

Post by hsuduebc2 »

dangus wrote: post #57
john61 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The argument that computational complexity has something to do with this could have merit but the article certainly doesn’t give indication as to why. OP says it is because that predicting the next token can be correct or not, but it always looks plausible because that is what it calculates. Therefore it is dangerous and can not be fixed because it is how it works in essence.

I just want to point out a random anecdote. Literally yesterday ChatGPT hallucinated an entire feature of a mod for a video game I am playing including making up a fake console command. It just straight up doesn’t exist, it just seemed like a relatively plausible thing to exist. This is still happening. It never stopped happening. I don’t even see a real slowdown in how often it happens. It sometimes feels like the o…

When asking question I use chatgpt only as turbo search engine. Having it double check it's sources and citations helped tremendously.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#116

Post by kylehotchkiss »

cmiles8 wrote: post #31

LLMs are an amazing advancement. The tech side of things is very impressive. Credit where credit is due. Where the current wave all falls apart is on the financials. None of that makes any sense and there’s no obvious path forward. Folks say handwavy things like “oh they’ll just sell ads” but even a cursory analysis shows that math doesn’t ad up relative to the sums of money being invested at the moment. Tech wise I’…

> Tech wise I’m bullish. Business wise, AI is setting up to be a big disaster. Those that aimlessly chased the hype are heading for a world of financial pain.

I'm not going to pretend to be on the cutting edge of news here, but isn't this where on-device models becomes relevant? It sounds like Apple's neural engine or whatever in the M5 have seen noteworthy performance improvements, and maybe in a few more generations, we don't need these openai-sized boondoggles to benefit from the tech?

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#117

Post by szundi »

LatencyKills wrote: post #48
gishh wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> something fundamental has changed that enables a computer to pretty effectively understand natural language. You understand how the tech works right? It's statistics and tokens. The computer understands nothing. Creating "understanding" would be a breakthrough. Edit: I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I sincerely wasn't. I don't "understand" how LLMs "understand" anything. I'd be super pumped to learn that bit. I don't…

As someone who was an engineer on the original Copilot team, yes I understand how tech works. You don’t know how your own mind “understands” something. No one on the planet can even describe how human understanding works. Yes, LLMs are vast statistical engines but that doesn’t mean something interesting isn’t going on. At this point I’d argue that humans “hallucinate” and/or provide wrong answers far more often than…

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Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#118

Post by cmiles8 »

Adapse wrote: post #106
swalsh wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hard disagree, I'm in the process of deploying several AI solutions in Healthcare. We have a process a nurse usually spends about an hour on, and costs $40-$70 depending on if they are offshore and a few other factors. Our AI can match it at a few dollars often less. A nuse still reviews the output, but its way less time. The economics of those tokens is great. We have another solution that just finds money, $10-$30…

Are the companies providing these AI services actually profitable? My impression is that AI prices are grossly suppressed and might explode soon.

It appears very much not. There has been some suggestion that inference may be “profitable” on a unit basis but that’s ignoring most of the costs. When factoring everything in most of these look very much upside down.

While there demand at the moment, it’s also unclear what the demand would be if the prices where “real” aka what it would take to run a sustainable business.

Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#119

Post by szundi »

gishh wrote: post #63
LatencyKills wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who was an engineer on the original Copilot team, yes I understand how tech works. You don’t know how your own mind “understands” something. No one on the planet can even describe how human understanding works. Yes, LLMs are vast statistical engines but that doesn’t mean something interesting isn’t going on. At this point I’d argue that humans “hallucinate” and/or provide wrong answers far more often than…

> I expect to see responses like yours on Reddit, not HN. I suppose that says something about both of us.

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Re: A new AI winter is coming?

#120

Post by buildbot »

stingraycharles wrote: post #15
tarr11 wrote: post #7

This has convinced many non-programmers that they can program, but the results are consistently disastrous, because it still requires genuine expertise to spot the hallucinations. I've been programming for 30+ years and now a people manager. Claude Code has enabled me to code again and I'm several times more productive than I ever was as an IC in the 2000s and 2010s. I suspect this person hasn't really tried the most…

If you’ve been programming for 30+ years, you definitely don’t fall under the category of “non-programmers”. You have decades upon decades of experience on how to approach software development and solve problems. You know the right questions to ask. The actual non-programmers I see on Reddit are having discussions about topics such as “I don’t believe that technical debt is a real thing” and “how can I go back in tim…

People learning to code always have had those questions and issues though. For example, “git ate my code’ or “I don’t believe in python using white space as a bracket so I’m going to end all my blocks with #endif”
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