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Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

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Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#101

Post by throwaway290 »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #90
HWR_14 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing a stock is overpriced and knowing when it will correct precisely enough to profit are very different.

Sure but everyone knows when earnings happens. If you think something is overpriced and a new balance sheet liability will "show" it, shorting around after earnings with something simple (a hedged short or a put) isn't that hard. If not you're just doing the social media thing where you say opinions that the peanut gallery is likely to agree with and smash the upvote button. I guess it's safer to fish for upvotes tha…

the market will be irrational longer than you are solvent;)

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#102

Post by etamponi »

watwut wrote: post #97
CodeWriter23 wrote: post #87

I seem to recall Musk saying something about OpenAI being over-valued/under-funded earlier this year. Of course he was summarily booed off the stage by the startup crowd.

As he should be booed off the stages in any respectable society. Regardless of whether he is right or wrong about ai.

> I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.

This is _actually_ what a respectable society does.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#103

Post by Esophagus4 »

HWR_14 wrote: post #64
dist-epoch wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you shorted Oracle and made money?

Knowing a stock is overpriced and knowing when it will correct precisely enough to profit are very different.

This is such a poor excuse for not being confident enough in your beliefs to put your own skin in the game. It's revealed preference vs. stated preference.

But in all likelihood, the people saying "I told you so!" never actually knew what they claimed to know.

If you want to know what someone actually believes, don't look at their comments, look at their positions.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#104

Post by muldvarp »

what wrote: post #54
Razengan wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that not a conflict of interest by the way, when Google's AI search results prevent the websites it trained on from getting clicks?

Am I the only one that clicks through to the sources cited?

In the grand scheme of things? Yes.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#105

Post by Karrot_Kream »

throwaway290 wrote: post #101
Karrot_Kream wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure but everyone knows when earnings happens. If you think something is overpriced and a new balance sheet liability will "show" it, shorting around after earnings with something simple (a hedged short or a put) isn't that hard. If not you're just doing the social media thing where you say opinions that the peanut gallery is likely to agree with and smash the upvote button. I guess it's safer to fish for upvotes tha…

the market will be irrational longer than you are solvent;)

And social media will upvote the preferences of the community over the truth until the heat death of the universe.

This quote is the dumbest thing. There are traders at firms that make money from the market every day. Chances are you may even benefit from products these traders sell to more risk averse people.

It's totally fine to say something like "I'm worried that the actual products that the AI boom are producing won't generate enough revenue to justify these levels of investment." But the silly doomshilling happening constantly makes no sense. Perhaps more saliently, if you treat the market as a source of economic information, the doomshilling seems to offer no new information at all.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#106

Post by LeifCarrotson »

drivebyhooting wrote: post #100
outside1234 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, the really frightening thing is Altman taking OpenAI public to get it into the SP500 and it completely falls apart then. In that case, we all get to hold the bag.

It would be an Adam Neumann moment. There’s no way OAI can IPO with its current financials.

In more ways than one - I don't know how, but I predict that Sam, like Adam, would somehow still walk away a billionaire while the company imploded.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#108

Post by LeifCarrotson »

beachy wrote: post #62
Bricejm wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google also has $100 billion in profit each year from it's core business to wait out OpenAI.

Google is also conflicted though. The more they emulate ChatGPT's clean UI, the more they are failing to push ads in people's faces, which is what generates that $100B for them. Their business model fails if their users don't experience a confusing crap-fest of ads.

They don't have to do that today, though. Remember original Google? Or original Gmail? Neither had prominent ads for the first few years, a couple decades later the ads are everywhere.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#109

Post by brazukadev »

etamponi wrote: post #102
watwut wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As he should be booed off the stages in any respectable society. Regardless of whether he is right or wrong about ai.

> I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it. This is _actually_ what a respectable society does.

booing is also covered by free speech.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#110

Post by thway15269037 »

drivebyhooting wrote: post #100
outside1234 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, the really frightening thing is Altman taking OpenAI public to get it into the SP500 and it completely falls apart then. In that case, we all get to hold the bag.

It would be an Adam Neumann moment. There’s no way OAI can IPO with its current financials.

Isn't it the whole point of current AI environment? "We can't, we shouldn't, yet we did and look at our stock".

I won't bet anything at it but the whole thing, the whole AI economy looks like a big YOLO, so taking another step further into this insanity is, well, just another step. Who knows, maybe next day Beff Jezos will IPO newly established company and somehow pull 1T IPO in 10 days of company existence. Wouldn't it be a sight?

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