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Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

ft.com

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Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#91

Post by adzm »

beachy wrote: post #62
Bricejm wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google also has $100 billion in profit each year from it's core business to wait out OpenAI.

Google is also conflicted though. The more they emulate ChatGPT's clean UI, the more they are failing to push ads in people's faces, which is what generates that $100B for them. Their business model fails if their users don't experience a confusing crap-fest of ads.

> the more they are failing to push ads in people's faces

Won't be long until chat AI will include sponsored products and services in the output.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#92

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

jandrese wrote: post #21
harshalizee wrote: post #5

Oracle is the one to look out for if/when the bubble bursts. Most of the big tech will be fine, albeit hurting for a while. For Oracle, this might be existential.

Don't they still sell a database product? As long as they don't do the Venture Capital thing and sell off the most promising business units there should still be something for the company to do after the AI bubble implodes. Certainly there will be a lot of layoffs, and maybe even a chapter 13, but I don't think they'll stop existing.

To a first approximation, no new company says “after looking at all of the alternatives, I think we should choose Oracle!”

Also when was the last time you heard companies migrating to Oracle from any DB?

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#93

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

arisAlexis wrote: post #83

So this economist is saying that a deal is only good if it raises the subjective share price? That is some distorted world view of finance that aims to just repeat the ai bubble narrative that is popular these days

How is that “distorted”? The classic evaluation of a stock is (yeah I’m simplifying) is the present value of all future returns. If a deal doesn’t increase expectations of future returns, it would seem to be the market showing its lack of confidence in the deal

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#94

Post by kergonath »

kstrauser wrote: post #32
water-data-dude wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there would be other consequences too, just consider the philanthropic organizations that Larry Ellison supports! Like the Ellison Medical Foundation, a non profit whose sole purpose is to keep Larry Ellison alive as long as possible!

> to keep Larry Ellison alive This is called “begging the question”. I need some evidence that Ellison is not an undead.

An undead lawn mower.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#95

Post by RobotToaster »

hypeatei wrote: post #35
matsz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Finally, been waiting for this moment since I've learned about Oracle. Would be well-deserved for them. Hope Larry Ellison loses his yacht.

These people are in the class that never fails. Ellison won't lose anything.

I'm sure they said the same about Citizen Louis Capet.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#96

Post by paxys »

beachy wrote: post #62
Bricejm wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google also has $100 billion in profit each year from it's core business to wait out OpenAI.

Google is also conflicted though. The more they emulate ChatGPT's clean UI, the more they are failing to push ads in people's faces, which is what generates that $100B for them. Their business model fails if their users don't experience a confusing crap-fest of ads.

OpenAI isn't burning through tens of billions of dollars every year on its free tier for charity. It will dial up the advertising knob (and every other knob) to 11 the moment the cash starts to runs out.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#97

Post by watwut »

CodeWriter23 wrote: post #87

I seem to recall Musk saying something about OpenAI being over-valued/under-funded earlier this year. Of course he was summarily booed off the stage by the startup crowd.

As he should be booed off the stages in any respectable society. Regardless of whether he is right or wrong about ai.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#98

Post by tacker2000 »

andrenotgiant wrote: post #43

FT uses "underwater" because the deal was $300 Billion and the stock has lost $315 Billion in market cap since the deal. That's a bit of a stretch, but the rest of the article is very good.

Yea these market cap discussions are always a bit meaningless actually, stocks can be volatile for many reasons… its not like they actually lost the delta

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#99

Post by nikkwong »

CodeWriter23 wrote: post #87

I seem to recall Musk saying something about OpenAI being over-valued/under-funded earlier this year. Of course he was summarily booed off the stage by the startup crowd.

He says a lot of things. Just because some of them end up being true by happenstance doesn't make him a prophet.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#100

Post by drivebyhooting »

outside1234 wrote: post #78
reactordev wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I so desperately want to make a snide comment about foreseeing the future but the reality is the CapX is so muddied that I’m afraid everyone is going to feel it.

Exactly, the really frightening thing is Altman taking OpenAI public to get it into the SP500 and it completely falls apart then. In that case, we all get to hold the bag.

It would be an Adam Neumann moment. There’s no way OAI can IPO with its current financials.
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