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Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

bbc.com

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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#91

Post by cjbgkagh »

tetris11 wrote: post #81
nicce wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like that when it happens, how big the pop is.

It'll be fine. When the banks burst in 2008, they were gifted 7 trillion to make up the shortfall and life went on for the rich. This time they'll be gifted 70 trillion to make up for the shortfall, and life shall continue on for the rich. It's win-win for them, there's no risk at all

I think the economic background has changed, in 2008 it was after a big run up in wealth so the reversion wasn’t so bad, there was some fat to cut. Since then people have been ground down to the breaking point, another 2008 wipeout will cut into the bone. I do think this time it could be different.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#92

Post by josefritzishere »

helterskelter wrote: post #90

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

This sub is the most important question in the thread. Where do you put your money to hedge against an AI market crash?

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#93

Post by hylaride »

partiallypro wrote: post #87

I think AI is a bubble, but I don't think we're close to the peak yet.

Ever literally blow bubbles? You never really know how big each one will be.

My biggest worry is that what will be left standing after all of this is the organizations that are quietly all the AI slop everywhere, be it the normal web or YouTube.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#94

Post by wmf »

pphysch wrote: post #67
lesuorac wrote: post #49

> He told the BBC that the company owns what he called a “full stack” of technologies, from chips to YouTube data to models and frontier science research. This integrated approach, he suggested, would help the company weather any market turbulence better than competitors. I guess but is it better for an investor to own 2 shares of Google or 1 share of OpenAI and 1 share of TSMC? Like I have no doubt that being vertic…

OpenAI going poof would have a negative impact on TSMC demand (revenue), right?

Yeah, TSMC demand might go down from 300% to 100%.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#95

Post by jghn »

tetris11 wrote: post #81
nicce wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like that when it happens, how big the pop is.

It'll be fine. When the banks burst in 2008, they were gifted 7 trillion to make up the shortfall and life went on for the rich. This time they'll be gifted 70 trillion to make up for the shortfall, and life shall continue on for the rich. It's win-win for them, there's no risk at all

privatize profit, socialize risk. same as it always was

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#96

Post by hirako2000 »

josefritzishere wrote: post #92
helterskelter wrote: post #90

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

This sub is the most important question in the thread. Where do you put your money to hedge against an AI market crash?

Commodities.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#97

Post by Barrin92 »

scottLobster wrote: post #76

Silicon Valley! Unprofitable debt and marketing all the way up until you get bailed out by the taxpayers, apparently.

I'm not seeing that happening. Unlike banking and housing there's not much systemic or political risk in letting these companies crash. It's mostly going to hit a very small number of high net worth people who don't have a lot of clout and are oddly disconnected from the rest of the economy.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#99

Post by ignoramous »

jordanb wrote: post #78
clickety_clack wrote: post #48

Sounds like something an extortionist would say in a movie. “We’re all dirty here!”

They really are shameless aren't they? Makes one think that this was the plan all along. I think they saw how SVB went down and realize that if they're reckless and irresponsible at a big enough scale they can get the government to just transfer money to them. It's almost like this is their new business model "we're selling exposure to the $XX trillion dollar bailout industry."

> They really are shameless aren't they? Makes one think that this was the plan all along.

Not really. Sundar is still pretty bullish on GenAI, just not the investor excitement around it (bubble).

  Pichai described AI as "the most profound technology" humankind has worked on. "We will have to work through societal disruptions," he said, adding that the technology would "create new opportunities" and "evolve and transition certain jobs." He said people who adapt to AI tools "will do better" in their professions, whatever field they work in.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#100

Post by r053bud »

aurareturn wrote: post #31
nabla9 wrote: post #22

Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Their valuations will take a hit. Nvidia will lose revenue and profits, stock will go down by 60% or more, but it will also survive. Oracle will likely fail. It funded its AI pivot with debt. The Debt-to-Revenue ratio is 1.77, the Debt-to-Equity ratio D/E is 520, and it has a…

OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar. OpenAI is existential threat to all big tech including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Hence, they're all spending lavishly right now to not get left behind. Meta --> GenAI Content creation can disrupt Instagram. ChatGPT likely has more data on a person than Instagram does by now for ads. 800 million daily active users for ChatGPT already. Google -…

I’ll HAPPILY bet that it won’t. $10,000 to a charity of each other’s choosing?
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