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Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#31

Post by aurareturn »

nabla9 wrote: post #22

Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Their valuations will take a hit. Nvidia will lose revenue and profits, stock will go down by 60% or more, but it will also survive. Oracle will likely fail. It funded its AI pivot with debt. The Debt-to-Revenue ratio is 1.77, the Debt-to-Equity ratio D/E is 520, and it has a…

  OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar.
OpenAI is existential threat to all big tech including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Hence, they're all spending lavishly right now to not get left behind.

Meta --> GenAI Content creation can disrupt Instagram. ChatGPT likely has more data on a person than Instagram does by now for ads. 800 million daily active users for ChatGPT already.

Google --> Cash cow search is under threat from ChatGPT.

Microsoft --> Productivity/work is fundamentally changed with GenAI.

Apple --> OpenAI can make a device that runs ChatGPT as the OS instead of relying on iOS.

I'm betting that OpenAI will emerge bigger than current big tech in ~5 years or less.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#32

Post by StopDisinfo910 »

conartist6 wrote: post #27
tow21 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon might get through easily as companies . I don't think all G/M/M/A staff will get through easily.

Microsoft is in a pickle. They put AI lipstick on top of decades of unfixed tech debt and their relationship with their userbase isn't great. Their engineering culture is clearly not healthy. For their size and financial resources, their position in the market right now is very delicate.

I don't think so.

They are one of the few companies actually making money with AI as they have intelligently leveraged the position of Office 365 in companies to sell Copilot. Their AI investment plans are, well, plans which could be scaled down easily. Worst case scenario for them is their investment in OpenAI becoming worthless.

It would hurt but is hardly life threatening. Their revenue driver is clearly their position at the heart of entreprise IT and they are pretty much untouchable here.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#33

Post by throwawayffffas »

Obviously, at least in the US the AI bubble is the only thing keeping the economy afloat. If it wasn't for the bubble the US would be in a recession.

Not sure how the situation is in Europe and Asia, but I would guess about the same.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#34

Post by slaw »

nabla9 wrote: post #29
tow21 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon might get through easily as companies . I don't think all G/M/M/A staff will get through easily.

I cry for Elon, that precious jewel of a human being. Tesla (P/E: 273, PEG: 16.3) the car maker without robots, robotaxis is less than 15% of the Tesla valuation at best. When the AI hype dies, selloff starts and negative sentiment hits, we have below $200B market cap company. It will hurt Elon mentally. He will need a hug.

Never bet against TSLA. Elon will just start selling tickets Mars colony.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#35

Post by nabla9 »

aurareturn wrote: post #31
nabla9 wrote: post #22

Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will get through easily. They don't have excessive debt. They can afford to lose their investments into AI. Their valuations will take a hit. Nvidia will lose revenue and profits, stock will go down by 60% or more, but it will also survive. Oracle will likely fail. It funded its AI pivot with debt. The Debt-to-Revenue ratio is 1.77, the Debt-to-Equity ratio D/E is 520, and it has a…

OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar. OpenAI is existential threat to all big tech including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Hence, they're all spending lavishly right now to not get left behind. Meta --> GenAI Content creation can disrupt Instagram. ChatGPT likely has more data on a person than Instagram does by now for ads. 800 million daily active users for ChatGPT already. Google -…

OpenAI has no technical moat (others can do what they do), generate content, all have the same data.

OpenAI does not expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029. When no new capital comes in, it can't continue.

OpenAI can's survive any kind of price competition.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#36

Post by throwawayffffas »

conartist6 wrote: post #27
tow21 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon might get through easily as companies . I don't think all G/M/M/A staff will get through easily.

Microsoft is in a pickle. They put AI lipstick on top of decades of unfixed tech debt and their relationship with their userbase isn't great. Their engineering culture is clearly not healthy. For their size and financial resources, their position in the market right now is very delicate.

I think that's the impression you get if you focus on Microsoft as a OS vendor. It's not that anymore, that's why their OS sucks for many years now. Their main business is b2b, cloud services, and azure. I think they are pretty safe from OpenAI. Plus they have invested big in OpenAI as well.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#37

Post by checker659 »

aurareturn wrote: post #4

Is it really a bubble about to burst when literally everyone is talking about AI being in a bubble and maybe bursting soon? To me, we're clearly not peak AI exuberance. AI agents are just getting started and getting so freaking good. Just the other day, I used Vercel's v0 to build a small business website for a relative in 10 minutes. It looked fantastic and very mobile friendly. I fed the website to ChatGPT5.1 and a…

The economics of it is what's the problem, not the power of LLMs.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#38

Post by aurareturn »

nabla9 wrote: post #35
aurareturn wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI, Anthropic, and others will be bought for cents on the dollar. OpenAI is existential threat to all big tech including Meta, Google, Microsoft, Apple. Hence, they're all spending lavishly right now to not get left behind. Meta --> GenAI Content creation can disrupt Instagram. ChatGPT likely has more data on a person than Instagram does by now for ads. 800 million daily active users for ChatGPT already. Google -…

OpenAI has no technical moat (others can do what they do), generate content, all have the same data. OpenAI does not expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029. When no new capital comes in, it can't continue. OpenAI can's survive any kind of price competition.

They consistently have the best or second best models.

They have infrastructure that serves 800 million monthly active users.

Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion.

There's price competition right now. They're still surviving. If there is price competition, they're the most likely to survive.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#39

Post by Ekaros »

throwawayffffas wrote: post #36
conartist6 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Microsoft is in a pickle. They put AI lipstick on top of decades of unfixed tech debt and their relationship with their userbase isn't great. Their engineering culture is clearly not healthy. For their size and financial resources, their position in the market right now is very delicate.

I think that's the impression you get if you focus on Microsoft as a OS vendor. It's not that anymore, that's why their OS sucks for many years now. Their main business is b2b, cloud services, and azure. I think they are pretty safe from OpenAI. Plus they have invested big in OpenAI as well.

Windows is hard to replace in large organizations. Is there actually any real AI competitors in the stack? Well Google, maybe. The whole Windows+Office+AD+Exchange and now Azure stack is unlikely to go any time soon. However badly they screw it up.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#40

Post by Ekaros »

donkeylazy456 wrote: post #16

Now they are talking like Wall Street greedy bankers back in subprime crisis.

Also it seems like Wall Street greedy bankers might have an other subprime crisis on their hands at same time... I wonder which one will be saved again...
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